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Profitablity is obviously different than production costs. However, when I asked IR at what level LT they thought they'd be profitable at I was quoted approx $4. Many variables here was that pre- or post roasting? Also was that including lower grades or just the high grade stuff? I also asked that probably 1 to 1.5 years ago. I'll try to follow up w/IR this week and will get back to the board. Either way it's gonna be just a guess on their part until they get the mill up full speed and until they do more drilling to prove up their resource to see what sort of grades they'll be dealing w/LT.
Fairly long GPXM here as the price keeps dropping along w/the risk. Nice combo. TA wise a drop below .30 is still possible here, but I'll just add more. Like investments where time is on my side.
Yea, gold is at the top of the channel. Friday's action was definately misleading.
(edit) >> destabilized a tribal but mostly peaceful country. The facts are obvious, it wasn't happening before we showed up <<
The facts are not apparently not obvious if you are calling Saddam's rule mostly peaceful.
There were not cracks there were major structural flaws before we went. I do not disagree in the slightest that we should not have gone in, but whether we stay or go I don't think it'll matter much at this point. Short term it would be worse, but ultimately whatever is going to happen is going to happen unless the US want to commit 20+ years and bring back the draft. Not going to happen. Might as well withdraw now and at least save some of our troops.
>> Just because it is now possible for the Moslem sectarians to kill each other without fear of law and order, doesn't mean they have to kill each other <<
They were going to regardless. Saddam (Sunnis minority) brutally ruled over the majority for quite some time. There was going to be payback. We just sped up the process. I agree we were quite naive going in.
Read my post again. I never said that. I loath Bush and his policies. However as always w/partisian politics there's little accomplished other than blame. Blaming Bush entirely for Iraq's problems is partisian politics and it accomplishes nothing.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. With oil I'm thinking still in the ST. There are very few sectors I'm willing to trade IT these days. I agree that OPEC may/will cheat, but between the rhetoric and actual cuts they can make a difference (again in the ST especially). I agree IT, LT oil probably will go lower once the US recession is finally in full swing.
As far as gold and safe haven status it has traditionally not done as well during such periods and the underlying equities have done worse. Case in pt that N. Korea exploded the bomb and looks to explode another one and gold is still under $600. N. Korea has talked about the UN Sanctions as an act of war. Gold is still under $600. I'd put approx 30% odds that the lows are in for gold. Global liquidity is still drying up (albiet very slowly). Bush is ignorant and reckless, but there's no way he's going to start anything w/Iran here. I don't think members in his own party would stand for it. We are losing both the war in Iraq and Afganistan currently. I really can't see us getting involved in a 3rd war. Nor can I see Iran pre-emptively striking an aircraft carrier. They may use Hezbollah to cordinate some attacks on Isreal or some terrorist attacks, but that's about it. If they attack the US openly we can simply bomb from afar. Iran will continue to pester to gain regional power, but not much more. Gold really needs the Fed to start cutting again and w/the latest stock market rally it may be delayed a bit longer.
I don't see any sector long or short as a no-brainer right now so I'll continue to stay heavy cash. If the market rallies much further I'll feel more and more confortable shorting, but you have to be leary of funds chasing performance especially during this time of year.
I'm no fan of Bush, but to say that he has caused all these issues in Iraq is a bit disengenuous. All these problems were ultimately caused well before Bush and in the case of the Shite and the Sunnis have been around for 1300+ years. It was further compounded by the arbitrary boundries created by the British (similar to Africa) and then of course made worse by Saddam thru one minority group brutally ruling the rest of country. I would say Bush and America should be best charaterized as a catalyst w/respect to Iraq. Many of these things would have happened regardless if/when Saddam fell or there was some sort of power vacuum. I do not feel the war has made us any safer and feel it was a huge mistake. I just think it's wrong to pile all the blame on Bush for the problems going on there.
Well it looks like a better ST bottom in oil this time than last time I spoke. OPEC has made more than 1 set of comments talking about defending this area and has already cut once. As such a continued ST bounce in gold/oil together wouldn't surprise me. However, I don't see the start of any new IT trend yet.
GSS CFO resigns. No position in this one currently. Only PM continues to be Novagold. Still feels like gold has more downside left before we get signficant upside.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/061016/20061016005811.html?.v=1
GSS got hit first w/the hydro shortages, then the mine explosion (non-event in reality), and now this. Still see a takeout as a good possibility, but water/electric issues won't be settled till early Nov at the earliest (per PR) so waiting a bit longer to see if gold/PM can give me a clear read before I commit again.
Tricky market. Mostly just been sitting on cash waiting for clearer ops and spending time w/family.
All the more reason for it to fail so a record number of analysts can get bearish on the metal again prior to the next move higher which right now seems very likely to start in high 400's or low 500's again. Oil is very oversold which should give gold a lift again, but once again there's just too much technical damage done again for anything other than a small bounce.
We're gonna have tax selling combined w/lower trade deficit and inflation data. Will be watching for good entries on shorts in the general market and try to wait patiently again for the next good PM entry.
Nice call Frank on a lower low in oil ST.
Looks like ST oil and gold will probably bottom/bounce together. I've been adding some ST trading PM positions. Realize we still have Q3 window dressing, but the end of the CB sales is probably a bigger event along w/oil bouncing.
USO may be safer than GLD or the HUI ST. At least in the event of a bigger crash there's always OPEC ST.
Guessing a number of traders still on the wrong side of the trade and being forced to liquidate. Nothing FA wise justifies this big of a move this fast other than forced selling. OPEC can still play the 'cut' card. I'm not buying more today, but another $5 down and I'll probably add more to USO. Staying away from PMs a bit longer till they act better. Still better than 50/50 odds imho that we make new lows in gold in the next month.
Picked up some USO first time ever. Mostly just see a bounce (3-5+) as the decline is pretty overdone ST. Otherwise just sitting on cash and previous NG and GSS positions.
GSS news
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Basic_Materials/Gold_and_Silver/threadview?m=tm&bn=25088&t...
Nothing from the company so hard to quantify this. I had partially stopped myself out at 3.1 and then again at 2.9. I'm still holding some, but it just seems like nothing can go right for GSS for any extended period of time. I can't see selling here especially since this isn't a producing mine for GSS, but nor will I add more to a losing position until the entire sector shows more signs of life.
I also disagree with #10. Fine if you're trying to preserve wealth, but if you've done your research 25% positions don't trouble me. Of course I've been higher in the past, but less need for that now.
With #3 if the whole sector is in the process of bottoming and it's ignoring bad news and has been basing a while then I tend to disregard this one as well. You're never going to catch the absolute bottom, but sometimes the only thing that is required is time (HUI 45).
Otherwise a pretty good list. Agree w/your comments on #4 as well.
Does that mean Christian groups are recommending ELD these days?
I'm neither a buyer nor a seller here in PM land. Can't find the reason for today's smackdown, but it'll likely be followed by a move to 550-560 in the next few days/weeks.
Yet another merger in PM land. IAG and CBJ w/CBJ getting a 31% premium. Wonder if that'll impact juniors at all today. Can't see a huge move in gold today just prior to CPI on friday, but PMs are beaten down enough to have a decent day.
That's only because you're a good stock picker. The bulk of the juniors still haven't bounced much from the lows. I could see a 1-2 day bounce very soon, but I'd put 70%+ odds that gold still has another $40-50 to fall if not more.
Too much technical damage done now. A bounce from here is likely, but it will almost certainly fail. No target for the HUI here, but gold is likely to hit 520-540 before this ends (lower targets possible, but will set an obvious target first and rethink if/when hit). Like many was aware of this possibility but juniors were showing good relative strength and stocks tend to lead vs the other way around. Still have all my NG and some GSS. Other traders are completely gone. Some today and some over previous couple days.
>> Results from this year's drilling will significantly to the resource base at the Galore Creek deposit. A further resource update incorporating as much of the new drill results as are available is targeted in the next few weeks. <<
Guessing that translates into a min of 20-25%+ more resources. The PDF really drives home how much further these resources could be increased in the future given that they're open at depth. Ultimately a 50%+ increase from today's levels wouldn't surprise. (of course I'm really biased ;)
HUI breakout
Target 400
NEM still w/in triangle
Gold chart initial breakout, but may fill gap at some pt. Still needs to breakout above previous uptrend support or at least take out 650 w/some zeal. Gold stock typically lead so it's likely gold will have a good Sept. (as usual per seasonality)
Added to the bullish picture are the facts that central bank sales are unlikely to meet their quota and juniors w/in the sector have been acting very well.
Gonna be interesting. Maybe gold stocks are smelling that gold is going to break to new highs later this year or early next. Break of 730 will likely lead to 800 test. I don't think it happens on this run, but ST we could have some fun before more consolidation sets in again.
I'm growing far more hopeful these days for something north of 25+ in the next 3 months with or without a buyout. The Donlin question (70% vs 30%) may not be settled for a while, but if the courts lay out the guidelines shortly on what's required for ABX it'll be all but settled. NG has a very strong hand to get 70% as you probably know. Also still expect more Donlin drill results and Galore feasibility both likely in the next 3 months.
Lightened PM positions on this bounce. Gold looks like it needs to go below 600 before it can gain any traction. Story continues to be very ST that oil prices coming down no need to worry about inflation...and gold. Very short term thinking and BS in my book, but it's what the street is selling so gotta respect it. Markets pricing in soft landing in economoy (also BS). Anything sub 580 is going to be a gift. Still have all NG shares, good sized GSS and a few traders in much smaller amounts. Will add on a breakout above HUI 350-355 area if seen.
More than anything these days Sly is selling himself. He's calling this a major top similar to 1980. So gold will not make new highs anytime in the next 5-10 years is the way I interpret that statement. The 70's bull market did suffer a 50% correction at one pt. So a trip to low 400's again would have some precent, but I don't think we're there yet.
GDP data tomorrow. Today was somewhat ugly, but the ST bull scenario still has a heartbeat, but it's getting more faint. If gold pops tomorrow, but the shares remain sluggish I'll likely take more off the table in preparation for sub 600 test.
It's hard to believe ABX can get Donlin permitted in time (which is only part of the battle). I think NG will be victorious in their 70%, but I have no idea how long this will take to play out. Guess we should know by Nov 2007 :) NG's most recent lawsuit is designed to clarify what it'll take for ABX to earn an additional 40% for 70% total. Placer is on record I believe as saying this includes full permitting. If the courts agree then you can pretty much place 95%+ confidence that NG will keep their current 70%.
I think NG's goal is to survive as an independent company here versus simply finding the highest bidder. However, after a number a companies have reviewed the books in detail a higher bid wouldn't surprise me. Not much has been made about getting the final permits for Rock Creek, but I think they help put a floor under the stock if ABX simply walks away.
The whole saga has been extremely interesting to follow.
Each rally is being capped, but at the same time there's definately accumulation going in the juniors and silver plays. These tend to lead the metal. I agree caution is warranted as gold/PMs could get sucked down w/the general market if things start to get really nasty. The CRB has broken below support here and could drag down gold initially (seems to be consensus among gold bugs). Sly is that he's saying this is 1980 and that the gold run is done/over. He made similar arguments at HUI 150 and 250 so he's very much a broken record at this pt. I do think sub $500 gold is possible again so I'm still cautious, but right now I'm thinking that we'll go no lower than $580 ST and seasonally speaking we're coming upon a very strong period. The central banks are unlike to reach their quota and from a sentiment standpoint this would be huge. NEM is still in a consolidation triangle and until it breaks one way or the other I don't think we can really say w/any real certainty where PMs are going ST. In the 70's gold market gold did lose almost 50% of it's value at one pt before going to new highs later in the decade. So maybe it is possible to see low 400's again, but I think $1,000+ is all but guaranteed sometime in the next few years. My biggest plays would certainly be impacted if gold fell $100 in short order, but they also have catalysts for increasing in price regardless of ST gold prices.
In my largest account I'm about 23% NG and about 28% other PMs currently so I'm still betting on an upside breakout even though I'm far from certain on the ST outcome.
Agree. Too much strength in juniors to ignore. This is simply sell on the news, profit taking since we're at obvious resistance and shorts piling on. It may last just today or a few days. I don't really care. Not buying here as I'm pretty loaded, but if the pullback gets deeper I may add more.
You're probably seen this, but in case you haven't (Re: German gold sales)
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=12850350
All the better for a continued sector move. I thought CDE and some other silvers may have to pause a bit longer considering the move off the lows, but it's looking pretty good here. I like PAAS the best FA wise, but none of the silvers are cheap in my book FA wise so I tend to just trade them all w/TA.
SLW.TO doesn't look as straightforward, but does look similar. % wise it looks like CDE has more upside, but probably not a big deal if silver makes new ST highs soon. EDR.TO looks interesting TA wise. Will have to look more.
Some CDE charts of what I'm seeing. Textbook stuff.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=12841031
Some CDE charts of what I'm seeing. Textbook stuff.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=12841031
CDE - Take your pick of bullish patterns. Don't like this one as much from an FA standpoint as say GSS, but hard to argue w/these charts. Still needs to break above 5.5 for targets to come into play for sure, but by that time it's already run .20-.50. Positioned prior to breakout here.
A little early for this one, but...once the first targets get hit, then 10-12 IT/LT comes into play.
Novagold (NG) gets final permits and starts construction
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=12833035
NG news - Rock Creek fully approved. NG will be 100K producer by mid 2007. No pop on the news yet, but helps to put a floor under the stock in case Barrick decides there's no way to buy NG at a level they're willing to pay.
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060822/0156206.html
Added a bit more in some accts. Will add more if mid 16's are seen again. Drill results from Galore were promised soon as well. Getting to be more and more of a no-brainer for the patient.
Adding to PM positions again this morn during this weakness. At a min we should test HUI 350 again. I suspect we'll break higher in the next few weeks. Whether it's a false breakout or the start of a nice fall run remains to be seen. Added some GLD as well.
Once again the "mouth" may have marked a ST bottom.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22737146
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22736828
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=55751
I don't see gold being consensus. I do see some concensus on the Dollar falling, but little concern so not exactly the same thing. Sly has been nay saying gold first at HUI 150, then around 250 and now again. This could be like the '74 correction at some pt, but 1980?...no way.
>> What does one do under such circumstances? My solution is to own enough gold stocks so that I would be happy to see the gold price rally, but also have enough cash so that I would be equally happy to see the gold price fall, since then I could add to my positions at more attractive prices. It's a win-win position and it sure beats sleepless nights worrying about what the market is going to do next week. <<
Good way to word it . That's the way I've felt for a while now . Noticed Roni responded w/the same post. Guessing a lot of diehard PM investors are in the same boat right now. Rydex cash levels very low though. I'm pretty concentrated in just a few PM positions here NG and GSS for the most part.
I tend to agree w/your assessment, but I like to consider all options. What % PMs are you vs what you'd usually are if you don't mind sharing.