I'm watching the equal weight
Indexes here and IMHO, they're
ready to break like a dry twig.
Here and now, we have such a dramatic difference between the SPY and RSP, and the QQQ and QQQE.— Jeffrey Lebowski (@to_borg) May 7, 2023
It shows how the indexes are propped up by "safety", the darlings.
The breadth is poor and the market illness is much worse than many think.
It's all going to break, here in May. pic.twitter.com/BfI0meoZdY
Great time, here and now,
to start scaling into SDS @ 39.80
Buy 50% of position wanted and wait a week to add.
Easy 25% gainer at some point this summer.
Also gotta like the QQQ puts here -
the May 19th 324's at just below 5 bucks (4.90)
Another portion buy scenerio - buy now, wait for confirmation.
We'll revisit this in a week or a month or so - and see results.
Hard upward pinch -
right here, right now, 10 minutes before the close -
the Boyz, the sharks, clearing out the shorts -
Good sign tomorrow they will take it down -
Punish the longs....
Always pain both ways if they can.
I see a probable heavy red day tomorrow.
No one trusts earnings and forward info here.
NVDA ready to snap like a dry twig -
the 270 puts - April 28ths @ 7.40 are a good buy.
I am in.
and again we see the
levitation act continue...
Blind faith and no fear.
Right Here, Right Now -
We're ready to crumple -
I can feel it - no upward strength -
SPY at 411.33
Added to these Big - from last week -
Added at 4.94
Bought April 28th SPY 415 puts here - at 5.40
portion buy - building a position
Bought a couple of QQQ puts here -
the May 19th 320's @ 8.40
QQQ at 319.30
Buy them at or in the money and far enough out
so that there's little time decay.
Building a position, portion buy -
Dip a toe and watch to see what develops.
China / Taiwan is a huge tech risk here.
Ultimately, EVERYONE knows
the economic conditions DO NOT justify the valuations here -
Especially with so much debt and contraction looming.
This is just a situation of irrational buying and FOMO (fear of missing out).
Risks are just being ignored, but as long as buyers aren't being punished,
there seems to be no worries.
Soon enough though, we'll see a hard break and fall back to the 400 level.
Irrational moves, both ways.
It seems no one is concerned about the reality of economic issues
and lack of discretionary income -
Here we are at SPY 413.40
and we're tremendously overbought....
Bought April 28th SPY 415 puts here - at 5.40
portion buy - building a position
also starting to look into the QQQ or top weighted stocks to go with puts.
Even considering going with the May 19th positions.
SPY May 19th 415 puts currently are 8.25 and a
very good risk/reward point.
The Kobeissi Letter
A week ago, France settled their first gas trade using the Chinese Yuan.
This has always been done using US Dollars.
Today, France's President Macron said Europe must reduce its dependency on the US.
There have been 20+ events challenging the US Dollar in a month.
Inflation and the regional banking crisis have people challenging the system.
So when will we get answers
If you recall, the efforts by
"The powers that be"
To cover up the truth were everywhere.
All the experts, all the media, the FBI, CIA, DOJ, etc.
Did everything possible to bury the truth before the election.
It's a good example of how vast the power is, to make sure they stay in control.
It's also an ominous sign of how difficult it will be to try and take power away from "them".
Standard Operating Procedure
Newly elected Mayor of Chicago Braindead Johnson's first line of business is to release all prisoners housed in correctional facilities throughout the city.
It seems obvious to me,
Create chaos, so those in government can declare a serious issue, and of course, then "be forced" to implement rules and laws and sieze tight control,
"For the good of the people"
Direct result of weak leadership.
There is no respect for this administration.
Their 2028's have a current yield here of 6.52% but the held to maturity of 11.65%. The 2031's have a yield to maturity of 9.60% and a current yield of 6.24%.
2024's current yield of 5.1% and yield to maturity of 9.2%.
per Schwab bond page
I would much rather hold the 24's here maturing in less than two years with the 9.2% yield to maturity than the 2042's DHCNI's with a current yield of 8.97% and have the long tail risk.
Just noticed the 28's have a yield to maturity of 11.65%
I own the 2024's
$SRG Bot another position at 10.04. Sold the August $10's calls at $1.45. Bit better than what I could do in just selling the puts outright.
Thinking the 25% short interest will pt a floor under the stock. That said, volume could indicate that they already covered large positions.
Check out $SRG. They are having shareholders vote on liquidating. Stock is up 66% but still some nice upside. From Proxy "Distributions Range will be between $18.50 and $29.00 per share." Bot some at 10.08.
Read the proxy. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001628063/000119312522189568/d384540dprem14a.htm
DHC - This will be a small trade for me at 1% or less of portfolio.
DHC - Bought at $1.86. Already own some of there exchange traded debt - DHCNL.
The more I look at DHC the more I am intrigued with the common shares that just hit a all time lows. I love find a value trap that appears to have a catalyst for breaking to the upside. I already own the exchange traded senior unsub debt - DHCNL. DHCNL yields 9% here.
A couple things in the last conference call;
And then as it relates to the $1.5 billion in cash and the $1 billion callable this June, can you elaborate on the thought process there, whether it pay it all down, pay down half and refinance half, where is management thinking about taking that?"
We definitely expect to prepay some portion of the nine and three quarter notes, but as you said we do need to be thoughtful and we need to continue to assess our investments and liquidity. The key thing for us is to make sure that we're investing in the portfolio and positioning ourselves to grow earnings so we can get a more normal dividend in place."
So the have $1.5 bil in cash (just sold another 10% piece of a building for another $108mil) They have 9.75% notes that can now be called in as of June. Paying any of this down will save interest expense.
I think last year, maybe it was in the first quarter, I forget, you issued some debt and I think that interest rate was maybe in the 4s, given what's going on with interest rates now, if you had to refinance some of that debt, how much higher do you think the interest rate might be?"
You're right; we were below 4.5 on that last issuance. Interest rates have come up a bit, but to be honest, I haven't been as focused on where we would issue debt. We're really – we're sitting on $1.5 billion of cash. When we look at our total debt, net debt to gross assets is just 25%. So we're not really looking to issue more debt right now. The key is again focusing on the performance of the portfolio and getting EBITDA back up to where it should be."
So, not even thinking of borrowing more money here. I have to think that they pay down a big chuck of the 9.75%. That will have more cash falling to the bottomline. I looked at institutional ownership. No outright run for the exits. https://fintel.io/so/us/dhc
I think the industry they are in has growth potential. Senior living looks to be bottoming out. Not sure how much inflation/recession weighs on that. But overall, I think DHC is a worth a speculative trade with a 2 year time horizon. Positive debt reduction in this next report may be catalyst for better performance. I don't see a whole lot of downside risk here. They appear to be well capitalized. No near term debt risk. $250 mil dues in 2024. The $billion 9.75% due in 2025. Then no senior notes due to 2028.
Healthcare Industry for a defensive stance
The market sentiments now is filled with uncertainty and fear, seeing large drops of more than 50% in major large market capital stock prices. (especielly in the tech sector). The negative contributions are non other than the rise in inflationary and Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers which have recorded to beat analysis estimates, sending market lower to the bearish pits.
Volatile periods calls for a reshuffling of portfolio in many investors and traders where they may opt for defensive sector equities ie. REITs, F&B, Utilities or Healthcare which has shown resilience against market turbulent.
Regencell Bioscience Limited’s (NASDAQ:RGC) a bioscience and healthcare company which focuses heavily on R&D and commercialisation of Traditional Chinese Medicine (”TCM”) treatment specifically Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (”ADHD”) and Autism Spectrum Disorders (”ASD”), and infectious diseases affecting people’s immune system such as COVID.
A little background on the CEO, its investors and stock-option plan which we know so far,
- Chairman and CEO support
? Since RGC’s incorporation in October 2014 up to the IPO, the Company has been fully funded by its Chairman and CEO, Mr. Yat-Gai Au. (whom is also a practitioner of TCM)
?Upon the IPO, the Chairman’s loan of USD $3.25 million, was converted into ~342,000 common shares at the initial offering price of USD $9.50.
? Pledged to not draw salary and bonus of more than USD $1 until the Company reaches USD $1 billion market capitalization;
? Will not award share options for himself;
? Since the IPO, RGC’s Chairman and CEO has purchased over USD $5 million in common shares on the open market. Most recently, he purchased [49,010 shares](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001829667/000121390022026630/ea160018-13da4regen_regen.htm) (~ USD $1.1 million) between April 1 and May 16, 2022, bringing his ownership to 81% of outstanding shares (~10.5 million).
- Billionaire investor backing
Samuel Chen, a successful early Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM) investor is one of the major backers of RGC. Last reported 13G filing shows he holds a 7.63% stake in the company.
- Stock option lock-up extended
All directors and employees who were previously granted stock options upon the Company’s IPO have agreed to a further lock-up undertaking for a period of six months after their stock options become vested. As their stock options are set to vest on July 16, 2022, their shares will remain locked up until January 16, 2023.
Having the full support and confidence of the company CEO and its employees, we hope to see further upside and positive news on the company, especially on treatments of ADHD, ASD & Covid19 with the company’s TCM method.
That was a telling and interesting exchange. I have a good size position in pipelines. Most in ET and WES, and speculative smaller position in SMLP.
It was disappointing to see Biden cancel Keystone XL on several levels. I think 100 miles had already been completed. The lost jobs and the fact that they had approval under another administration to proceed. And of course the shortages we see now. I now they ask US taxpayers to provide funds for other countries to construct pipelines is very disturbing.
I think WES and ET are attractive at these levels.
Here's an excellent example of how disgusted the common citizens are with the Dem's, with this admin, and with many things that have occurred during the past 18 months.
I'm putting this here because to post it on other boards, it'll get deleted.
We've seen this same charade, over and over again, from the left. They refuse to acknowledge their agenda.
I have thoughts and
Will get posts up this weekend...
I think many feel the economy is due for a heavy downturn... For years... And this will increase the number of deaths,
Causing a heavy toll on the insurance sector.
CEQP-P Long at 9.12. Yields 9.22%
Crestwood Equity Partners LP, 9.25% Cumulative Preferred Units, not redeemable at the issuer's option at any time, and with no stated maturity. Cumulative distributions of 9.25% per annum ($0.8444 per annum or $0.2111 per quarter)
IVR- Long at 9.79. Really beaten up mREIT after reverse split. I usually don't like reverse splits, but sometimes many others don't either so the selling can get over done. Down 45% since the June 6th split. Book value at April 30, 2022 was about $18.00. So selling for 54% of book as last reported. Earning per share available for distribution was $1.20 per share. (btw, all number split adjusted)
I looked at institutional activity and it looks pretty good.
Three insider buys in May but all relatively small.
Been paying a dividend of 90 cents a share per quarter for the last year. $3.60 a year and the stock selling here at $9.71 as I type. This is what they said on the last conference call.
CIM-A Bought at 21.16 .Yields 9.45%. The B and C series preferreds are fixed to floating. The A's fixed at 8% here and are callable. CIM would be smart here to call these in and issue a new series that is fixed to floating. Most mReits have moved to fixed to flaoting. for example, here are the terms for the 7.75% C's;
I have been researching and getting in to insurance/annuity companies. What do you think?
Most pay dividends and selling for less than book. They have re-occuring revenues and higher interest rates should lead to higher investment income. For mortgage insurers persistency is rising. I find JXN interesting. Spin-off from PRU-UK. I like GNW's spinoff - ACT. They are just now starting to pay dividends. And I like GNW for much the same reasons. And GNW now has a buyback in place and a commitment to return capital. BHF is also interesting. No divy but they buy back a hell of a lot of shares. LNC also intrigues me down here. No position but it has fallen far enough now that I may buy some.
Energy I like CHK. Got in after BK and have a nice gain. I sell calls around the position, and great dividneds!
My speculative long term lotto play is ALIN-B shares. ALIN (private equity held) is profitable. Much debt coming due in 2024, but if they chew through that debt perhaps we can see the preferreds getting paid a dividend again plus those in arrears. Less than 1% of port, and I have been in and out with trading gains on part.
RILY I like basically because their insiders buy tons of stock at market and shareholder friendly as to dividends.
And picked up some exchange traded debt yesterday. PBI-B and QVCC. BWSN recently as well.
The more I look in to WHLR the more pissed I am with CDR's management that they really think they can stick the preferreds with them and profit from it. I haven't decided how much I want to bet on the preferreds before the June 22nd hearing. I had 5% of port in then but sold over half when shares rose over 14.
TWTR - WTF! Bad timing in this one.
TWTR - Bought some at the close at $45.00. Looking to do covered call in am. If I can sell the June 45's for $3.00 that is a 7% return on my funds at risk if taken out at $45.00. I am thinking that Musk's offer of $54 will had some support here soon.
With NYSE breath flat today, and VIX taking a nice dip, we may get an up day tomorrow.
FB- Sold this am for 9.7%gain.
Bought SQQQ after the close last night.
ALIN-B , Sold about a third of my position today for a small 5% loss. My highest cost basis shares. Remaining shares have lower cost basis and unrealized gains.
Sold about 10% of my CDR- C preferreds for 50+% gain. Just after the PPS went on a free fall. Not sure what is up on that. Low volume sell-off.
ALIN-B up 75%. On 3x average volume but that is still just 20,000 shares.
GNW - Sold half of my buy last night at 3.94 for 4.5% gain. Fairly large buy of 20K shares. Way overweight and needed to trim. Saw little downside risk. I was hoping for 20 cents but will settle for 17 on half.
Just bought Genworth Finl, Inc. 6.5% 06/15/2034 at 89.60 bonds.
YTM of 7.84. Current yield of 7.25%. Looking at historical chart these bonds were trading for about 100 in February. Hard for me to put a finger on why the weakness since. Higher 10 year treasury rates?
RILY - Ouch! Did not like last nights earnings report. Sold most at the open and took my loss. Kept a small position. Insiders bought heavy last quarter. What do they know?
FB- closed out my position last night on the ramp up. Actually added more shares before the close so it ended up being a good trade.
Re-evaluated this am and bought back in at my original small position size at 199.90. I think there is major macro headwinds ahead so treading lightly with growth stocks.
ACT - Announced today their first quarterly dividend. 14 cents. Of course I would have liked to see a larger dividend. I am happy they started this quarter, and not next. And I figured it would take the year to see what the total dividend would be. ACT hanging on to more cash is no problem for me as GNW owns 81.6% of ACT. Would have liked to see more so GNW could pay down debt faster, but the 14 cents is not a surprise due to macro headwinds and the press release sounds like they are still evaluating. I expect to see more with a special dividend at year end.
" "Returning capital to shareholders, balanced with our growth and risk management priorities, remains a key commitment for Enact as we look to drive shareholder value through time. We believe the initiation of a quarterly dividend reflects meaningful progress towards that goal and we continue to evaluate the most appropriate amount of total capital to return to shareholders for the remainder of 2022. Our ultimate view will be shaped by our capital prioritization framework: supporting our existing policyholders, growing our mortgage insurance business, funding attractive new business opportunities and returning capital to shareholders. Our total return of capital will also be based on our view of the prevailing and prospective macro-economic conditions, regulatory landscape and business performance."
Link to 8K