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There are plenty of miners that can make money at 1225 POG. As a group they will suffer of course, but to lump them all together is wrong.
Mostly Cynical, name isn't too important. I have a thread call "The conflicted thread" but almost never use it. Again I'm not looking to post a ton. Email might even be better.
I say we make a new board. You can moderate or I can or someone else. Flexible.
BTW - Welcome back. You and me both. I only started posting again more frequently in the past month or so.
My thoughts on today
Everything PM related bounced w/the general market. Market was up today because it was oversold, short covering and BS rumors regarding Dexia (which is only a small part of the EU problem).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/non-news-dexia-bad-bank-sends-market-soaring
Prior to 3:15 today gold stocks were outpacing gold and the SPX to the downside. Not exactly encouraging action. As I keep repeating there's been no capitulation. Maybe it feels that way, but at least in how I read the market we're not there yet. I expect more ugliness in Oct. Could see broad market rallying back to 1140-1160 range where it would be a gift shorting op ST again. This is a typical bear market rally (thus far).
Even assuming this turns out to be the bottom today which I don't think so, it'll be retested. 51 (GDX) melted like butter today. Not encouraging. Gold pattern (GLD) looks more like a consolidation prior to more downside.
I've been wrong before this is my current swag.
It's a pretty amazing accusation that doesn't appear to be backed up by other sources. Makes me question their credibility. Then again I tend to think for myself so maybe that's where we differ
It's one thing to disagree with soros and quite another to say that he enjoyed helping the Nazis. The Daily Bell should have done a little research before posting this imo.
If I continue to post here I'm sure there will be times where you staunchly disagree with me as well, but TY either way. I've known basser for a while and I hope that video isn't representative of his thinking.
Actually it's rather sick. Sick in that everything said here can equally be applied to Bush and his policies. Those who can watch/agree with the video and not see this are equally sick since they put Bush in power twice which really accelerated us on this path to financial destruction. Ron Paul needs to run as an independent and let everyone know the current set of Republicans are too corrupt, hypocritical, and moronic to follow. If you pass along a video like this you merely send the message to everyone that you are staunch anti-obama person and therefore they won't listen. More hate, partisian divide and conquer method continues to work like a charm for the Kleptocracy and you play into their hand. Debt slaves need to use a little thought if they want to be free.
85,000 oz at decent grade if open pit, not underground. Out of 7+ mil budget less than 5% spent on gold property and zero on new drilling. Hard to really call it a gold play don't you think?
Cycle wise I think we'll get a low or a high in gold/gold shares in the April/May timeframe, but I'm more inclined to believe a high vs a low. If gold makes new ST lows and test the lower 1000's then april/may should be a high. If we break higher now then I might be more inclined to think a low. I'm looking at currencies, TA, EW, general market, sentiment, and a few other things. No one thing, but in general gold/markets are still 1 trade. They need to diverge.
No problem. I've certainly received some good ideas from this thread over the years.
Nicely done. If you choose I'll think you'll be able to buy back cheaper in the next 1-2 months. We'll see. Gold should stall out soon along w/the general market and head back down to fresh lows. Might be some chop first.
Doesn't look like the 4th wave is complete even if that scenario holds.
Very few get the published rate for refis. In most cases even w/lower rates most will end up at a higher rate relative to where rates where when they started. Banks are playing all sorts of games.
A profit doesn't care where it came from. Congrats.
Check on the itinerary. As for your technical tools and signals that's fine, but I would think in an entire universe of stocks you could find other stocks that are going sideways to down and apply the same tools, no? Glad that you're making money trading.
If you want to short I think gold might look good once the parabolic top is broken. I'll probably pick up some DZZ, but mostly to hedge my physical holdings. In the short term gold may go to 1300-1400 prior to a bigger correction. Hard to say as it's a tiny market relative to the amount of money chasing it.
Feedback: Why do you insist on shorting stocks near or at 52-week highs? There's a whole universe of stocks with crappy fundies and mediocre TA. This stock is neither. It's a resource play and if the Dollar goes to crap it'll benefit from that alone. Haven't followed in a while, but owned some sub $3 for a while.
So, how's the family? Going to be ordering plane tickets soon for skiiing. First weekend in Feb unfortunately.
2 year mine life (really less than 18 months at this pt as they said on previous CC that early 2010 would be it). If drill results come in good during Q4 on increasing chance to extend then I'll be more interested I think.
Thank you. Most investors love Ron Paul. I think he needs company. The more light we shine on this mess the better. I'm open to other potential senators if you have suggestions. My only criteria is that they understand the problem and the proper solution. If Schiff can win I feel that my voice is being heard better in Washington. My not amount to much, but it's something.
Please consider:
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25983347
We as fellow investors are in the best position to help and to know the stakes involved if we don't.
Ben Stein is a such a tool. I hate both the "left" and the "right" in this country.
So does your 102 target on the US Dollar over time also correspond w/an S&P target? I could see 102, but I think it would almost have to involve fresh lows on the S&P. Failing that I don't think the Dollar will breach the old 52 week highs this year or next.
Given the Dollar sentiment and the fact the markets, all commodities and gold have been trending together I think you're spot on.
Do those numbers represent waves from an EW persepctive? If so they're completely invalid. It's still a channel, but unless today was the bottom (which I doubt) there's likely more IT pain for PMs.
Just checking in. How are you positioned currently? What's your read for the next month and then 3, 6 months respectively? Building more sandboxes?
How about on the learning side? TA, EW?
Gold - If I was looking at just gold by itself I'd be fairly bullish here (w/a stop under 910 or so). However, I really don't like the general market and gold rallying together under the premise of (recovery and/or hyper-inflation). There's no way we go from this much deflation to massive inflation that fast. Most of the money is still stuck in the system vs being lent out. It's just a paper transaction for the banks to show that they're not totally insolvent. I have a bit under 10% PMs in my main trading account (two small cap gold plays where it's more trouble getting in/out). I also have some physical gold/silver, but not enough if gold cracks 1K. Going to continue to watch for now. No shorts either, just sitting on some cash and working on the golf game. The wild card is if confidence evaporates in the US Dollar ST, but it seems to me that if Ben wants to force money back into Treasuries they merely have let the market fall (ST of course). Action in markets seems more and more surreal by the day.
Starting to relax a bit as it's a first time in while that my account has stayed w/in the same 1% range for a whole 2 weeks. Don't mind as I'm on track to repeat last years gains, but so far w/less volatility.
Probably northern exposure if need be. I'd rather live in nice country and pay higher taxes than take my chances in the 3rd world. I hope you're right regarding deflation. My mood stems from two factors: keeping what I earned over the years (don't want to do anything but trading again), and just how F*#ing blind/ignorant everyone is here in the states regarding anything of substance. If the people are this blind how can we expect the politicians to be much different? I don't think these concepts are that difficult, but I've been doing this a while so perhaps I'm too biased.
On a side note, we're thinking about gov health care when the population is a tub of lard? Gee, maybe we should just change our diets and exercise more and save the money. I'm for national healthcare IF...it's run right and the population is doing something about their own health. There's been no debate about where do you draw the line either in terms of spending. About 90% of the $$$ spent here I believe in during the last 6 months of life. Again no real debate. It's depressing watching all of this happen in slow motion.
On a lighter note my golf swing is really starting to come together. I was told my over the top move is complete gone. Free at last.
Getting the same way. I'm tired of trying to help/warn people about what's coming. There's little point in trying to change things as everyone here is obsessed w/BS issues. Just need to make sure I have a better exit strategy. Going to finalize the passports for the whole family hopefully in the next 1-2 months. Need to do more though beyond that.
It feels weird working on the golf swing knowing what's coming, but gotta keep it light too.
I have a feeling that gold stocks are being set up for a sell the news event post FED. Need to have at least one more washout day for gold where gold stocks decline than the underlying physical. Not a strong feeling, but think it's the most likely scenario. Thus far looks like an oversold rally, but the last rally I mostly caught in the middle and still did very well so I'm more inclined to be patient if I miss the ST/IT bottom.
Frank, wake up. We're almost there. If not we have a lot longer to fall. HUI 300 area (need to relook at chart to be sure), needs to hold.
Yep. I stayed away prior to FED. Too many games. Money to be made, but too much risk relative the reward.
Striking a better balance of late between fun, friends, family and work. Still working hard, but also working harder at playing. I think overall it's helping my trading. Still too early to say decisively.
Tend to agree. Lots of synching today w/miners and general market. Doesn't feel like Dollar is done correcting higher as well. Euro breaking down and once starting down will probably over do it to the downside. EU banks have just as many if not more issues. We're at a point where we've hit min ABC projections so a bounce here is possible, but IT direction still looks down as you say. PM stocks should start to ignore downside in gold if 875 is going to hold. Still might be more downside ST, but shouldn't be more than 5-10%. If we correct more than 10% in the HUI ST then it's more likely imho that 875 will not hold.
I haven't decided yet if I think 875 will hold. Since I'm very heavy cash currently I'd kinda rather have another washout to present a better risk/reward IT again.
Nice job on your gold short.
Looks like general market is going to press higher. Gold/PMs appear to be in synch. I'd say odds are decent gold stocks rally another 5-8% (big caps) short term w/the general market. TA looks ST constructive as well. Not adding positions here myself just letting what I have run. I still think IT there's more downside to go before 1K is left behind on POG.
I can see a lot more scenarios where the market declines if both of those go higher. The only scenario I can see where the market can go up is if there really are lot of greenshoots that I'm simply not seeing.
I have the S&P in an ABDE triangle currently with an E to go yet. Possible one more high coming after that, but nothing definate yet. My next move is probably to short general market again (try).
(edit) i think that'll work out if the general market chips in, otherwise if we see new highs in the general market then I strongly suspect gold and gold shares will be higher as well. Do you share that read, or disagree on the synching?
Broad market continues to get weaker FA/TA wise so one of these times it'll probably give in to gravity. At this point gold and PMs are too in synch w/the general market to my liking. I'm still long some PMs/gold, but a fairly low allocation for me. I'm willing to be stopped out completely if certain things hit.
Don't you think it's also possible that we'll get a Dollar rally, but it'll more muted than fall '08 rally due to the fact that a certain amount of deleveraging/safe haven buying has already taken place. In that scenario I could see a move back to 87/88 and we'd have the making of a nice H&S IT top. Would be consistent w/the FA as well imho. Given how bad the other major currencies suck (along w/deflation), I'm not closed to your scenario of 102, I just see it as far less likely right now.
Big surprise they gamed the jobs numbers. Question now is when to buy back PMs.
It'll happen as soon as they stop manipulating the market higher or when the lemmings have been spent. These are certainly tricky times and doubly so if 77 area on the US Dollar index gets taken out. I could see general markets rallying initially and then having a violent selloff with gold getting his as well. Better for gold that we have a gradual decline in the general markets - a slow bleed sooner than later.