Thanks for sharing your thoughts. With oil I'm thinking still in the ST. There are very few sectors I'm willing to trade IT these days. I agree that OPEC may/will cheat, but between the rhetoric and actual cuts they can make a difference (again in the ST especially). I agree IT, LT oil probably will go lower once the US recession is finally in full swing.
As far as gold and safe haven status it has traditionally not done as well during such periods and the underlying equities have done worse. Case in pt that N. Korea exploded the bomb and looks to explode another one and gold is still under $600. N. Korea has talked about the UN Sanctions as an act of war. Gold is still under $600. I'd put approx 30% odds that the lows are in for gold. Global liquidity is still drying up (albiet very slowly). Bush is ignorant and reckless, but there's no way he's going to start anything w/Iran here. I don't think members in his own party would stand for it. We are losing both the war in Iraq and Afganistan currently. I really can't see us getting involved in a 3rd war. Nor can I see Iran pre-emptively striking an aircraft carrier. They may use Hezbollah to cordinate some attacks on Isreal or some terrorist attacks, but that's about it. If they attack the US openly we can simply bomb from afar. Iran will continue to pester to gain regional power, but not much more. Gold really needs the Fed to start cutting again and w/the latest stock market rally it may be delayed a bit longer.
I don't see any sector long or short as a no-brainer right now so I'll continue to stay heavy cash. If the market rallies much further I'll feel more and more confortable shorting, but you have to be leary of funds chasing performance especially during this time of year.
