Each rally is being capped, but at the same time there's definately accumulation going in the juniors and silver plays. These tend to lead the metal. I agree caution is warranted as gold/PMs could get sucked down w/the general market if things start to get really nasty. The CRB has broken below support here and could drag down gold initially (seems to be consensus among gold bugs). Sly is that he's saying this is 1980 and that the gold run is done/over. He made similar arguments at HUI 150 and 250 so he's very much a broken record at this pt. I do think sub $500 gold is possible again so I'm still cautious, but right now I'm thinking that we'll go no lower than $580 ST and seasonally speaking we're coming upon a very strong period. The central banks are unlike to reach their quota and from a sentiment standpoint this would be huge. NEM is still in a consolidation triangle and until it breaks one way or the other I don't think we can really say w/any real certainty where PMs are going ST. In the 70's gold market gold did lose almost 50% of it's value at one pt before going to new highs later in the decade. So maybe it is possible to see low 400's again, but I think $1,000+ is all but guaranteed sometime in the next few years. My biggest plays would certainly be impacted if gold fell $100 in short order, but they also have catalysts for increasing in price regardless of ST gold prices.
In my largest account I'm about 23% NG and about 28% other PMs currently so I'm still betting on an upside breakout even though I'm far from certain on the ST outcome.
