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Goldman's entire outlook for markets and the economy
- 10 year rate from 1.9% (current) to 2.7% in 12 months
- US economic growth bouncing back in Q2
i remembered that event, a sad story.
‘Life goes on’, wait for a better tomorrow.
Environmental policy in China
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_policy_in_China
Open the book: One Belt And One Road Initiatives
let’s see how China deploy their ambitious economic initiatives
Chinese President To Discuss Massive Trade Route During Pakistan Visit
APRIL 19, 2015 5:18 PM ET
http://www.npr.org/2015/04/19/400831322/chinese-president-to-discuss-massive-trade-route-during-pakistan-visit
China’s president Xi Jinping in first state visit to Pakistan
Beijing sees Pakistan as key part of efforts to access the Indian Ocean over land to boost trade
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/china-s-president-xi-jinping-in-first-state-visit-to-pakistan-1.2182465
Greeting sign “We are brotherhood of Steel”
Air escorting by Xiaolong fighters ( FC1, JF-17, Fighter China-1 Fierce Dragon)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAC/PAC_JF-17_Thunder
Arrival
Goal
To materialize the PAK-China economic corridor project (to be elaborated), a key step for China’s One Belt And One Road (OBAOR) initiatives
04/08/2015
the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following licenses:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Approved_Pak_china_economic_corridor_map.jpg
This file is licensed under the Creative CommonsAttribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license. free: to share
One Belt And One Road (OBAOR) initiatives
One Belt And One Road Initiatives:
1. What are "One Belt And One Road Initiatives" ?
-President Xi Jinping's plan to connect Asia and Europe by borrowing the concept of the historical Silk Road.
-One Belt: Silk Road Economic Belt
-One Road: 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.
2. Where does it go through?
The “One Belt” begins in Xi’an in Northwest China before stretching west through Urumqi to Central Asia. From there it goes to northern Iran before swinging west through Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. From Istanbul, it crosses the Bosporus Strait and heads northwest through Europe, including Germany and Netherlands. It then heads south to Venice, Italy.
The other part of the plan is the ‘One Road’ that begins in China's Quanzhou in Fujian province and heads south to the Malacca Strait. From Kuala Lumpur, it heads to India, then crosses the rest of the Indian Ocean to Nairobi, Kenya. From Nairobi, the Maritime Silk Road goes north around the Horn of Africa and moves through the Red Sea into the Mediterranean. Then it meets the land-based Silk Road in Venice.
3. What has China done?
Nov. 8, 2014: Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the creation of the $40-billion Silk Road fund.
Dec. 29, 2014: China's Silk Road Fund Co. Ltd was established in Beijing.
Feb. 16, 2015: The Silk Road Fund starts operation.
4. Who benefits?
The Belt and Road Initiatives will benefit
- 4.4 billion people
- 63% of the global population
- A collective GDP of $2.1 trillion
- 29% of the world's output
--------------------------
creditors
unless otherwise specified,
photo hot link is permissible when full link is provided
http://www.guancha.cn/Neighbors/2015_04_10_315395.shtml
http://www.guancha.cn/Neighbors/2015_04_20_316612.shtml
The quiet revolution
G20 "deeply disappointed" by U.S. impasse on IMF reform
China's central bank cuts RRR by one percentage point
Routing
ahimsak, 2040 (2039.69 03/11) is the lower apex or the ongoing corrective sinusoidal swings, a noteworthy checking point.
So far the session low is 2072.37, you can find this number in this table (2072.01). The bearish scenario is to see Index move into a different column, which is 2049.04
(for Entertainment)
Astro says "bad"
The history wheel made its turning quietly this past month ( March 17, 2015)
The timing is so cryptic!!! There`s not much time left for Fed.
>> My gut is 2060 will hold
agree with your 2060 ( 2063.42 0.382 2119.59-1972-56 ).
"after pullback we rally to new highs"
Some of the Bulls (not our ahimsak) have THAT script for quite a long time, It is in the same context as "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" by replacing Wolf with Taurus ( photo ), in a more cynical way, The boy can be replaced by a few of them in 'Waiting for Godot'
imho, a New high that is "slightly" higher than 2119 (2130-2172) could be all they can have for a psychological triumph.
China guancha ‘piss off’ 60-Minutes
China’s famous web site Guancha (meaning 'the Observer') quoted The Economist.com (see quote below), saying the so called Ghost city by '60 Minutes-Lesley Stahl', is booming
City Profile:
Zhengzhou http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhengzhou
population 8.6 million (2010)
new district projection (2020): around 4 million , city 3.23 million, sub 0.45 million
>> Take her (SPX) down below 1600 this summer
i don't the timing
Let’s do a quick review:
A: Current ‘standoff'
SPX day low 2079.12 (11.06 am EDT, ongoing)
2079.12 its technical significance:
>> 04/13: i start accumulating FXP <--- Sold
sold all FXP on hand (26->27.8, thus about it for a scalp play)
i think the Future plunge in China was due to a regulator adjustment (see: China Futures Tumble on Trust Curbs, Expansion of Short Selling ) not a 'structural damage', after a lower high (if there is a one), i will think about to reload short (Inverse ETF FXP, YANG ), i can not foretell how it deploy in a step by step manner ...
U.S. stocks: China regulatory move rattles markets
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: Apr 17, 2015 8:14 a.m. ET
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-tilt-south-ahead-of-ge-consumer-prices-2015-04-17
There is chaos in global markets as stocks in China are down more than 5%, stocks in Europe are selling off, and now US stocks have opened in the red.
MYLES UDLAND APR. 17, 2015, 7:27 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/global-market-update-april-17-2015-4
Bubble trouble: China's stock market looks too hot
FYI FWIW
re: "QE In China Is Now Inevitable"
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) After Hours Up 58.53 (12.31%)
Netflix Releases First-Quarter 2015 Financial Results
LOS GATOS, Calif., April 15, 2015 Netflix, Inc.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-releases-first-quarter-2015-200100211.html
After Hours : 533.99 Up 58.53 (12.31%) 4:21PM EDT
Why Do Dogs Wag Their Tails?
04/14/15 Setup comparison
12/19/14 02:17:06 PM
"The bounce-off from the low 1972.24 looks more like a capitulatory advance."
“HE rises and begins to round“
- The Lark Ascending, George Meredith (1828–1909)
Well, Index is ‘wandering around’ in the fast few months. "Come So Far Yet Still So Far To Go".
Let's review an old setup:
New ETFs Take a Bold Approach to China A-Shares
CHAU CHAD CHADQ
RE: WUBA on breakout
58.com (WUBA) Jumps 33% On FT’s Merger Report: Tencent Tech Said A Deal Not Imminent
April 14, 2015, 7:18 P.M. ET
link
Tencent Tech http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tencent
size nearly as big as Alibaba. with nearly a billion users, which functions like Facebook, Amazon, Twitter, and Uber all rolled into one. Now it's gunning for global expansion.
The Credit Managers Index deteriorated significantly
FYI
FXI/FXP pair
FXI has a resistance around 55, immediate resistance 52.33.
i start accumulating FXP, not in full throttle yet, and use FXI resistance as a STOP guide.
This is a short term trade, not an investment.
04/11/15 SPX
Last update 03/25
(1) Market Trend Charts – overall via this link
Market trend charts says we are in an ongoing stock bull market
(2) Fibonacci terminal points
Table: via this link
Upper Zones:
Zone 1 (2070-2130)
Zone 2 (2130-2214)
Zone 3 (2214-2317)
11/21/14
- Middle term upper target 2130.46, Long term upper target 2213.50
01/17/15
- To be bullish, the serious test remains in between 2069.93 and 2130.46 (zone 1).
2198 pops up in Anthony Caldaro’s daily report on April 9 and then on April 11, he wrote: “Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots.” link
2198 can be realized in this way:
- 2119.59 ATH on 02/25/15
- 2039.69 First low after ATH, 03/11/15
- 2199.49 = 2119.59 – 2039.69 + 2119.59
looks peculiar, but it is as simple as a pair of equal distance mirror points.
let’s check another set
- 2079.76 in this chart, 12/05 session high 2079.46
- 2079.76 * 1.02 = 2121.36 (ATH 2119.59)
- 2079.76 * 0.98 = 2038.16 (2039.69 is the First low after ATH)
On 12/05 (session high 2079.46) I wrote “i am ‘convinced’ the apex is around the corner (with + 1~2% overrun)”
Now we are approaching middle April, the projection made at that time was very reasonable.
The 2% came from two meaningful physical phenomenon, to be elaborated in the future.
(3) SPX Short term Lower rail
2029.52, 2005.40, 2004.02, 1973.79-1965.20 (refer to the table, Fibonacci terminal points )
(4) SPX Short term upper rail
2120.14, 2124.63, 2130.46, 2138.86, 2140.84
Apparently, index is moving into another critical juncture, the secondary high 2114.86 (03/23) is becoming a key watching point.
(5) Market analysts
Cycle expert Eri Hadik is bearish for the coming weeks (after 04/13).
April 2, 2015 - Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin
"We expect the S&P 500 will reach 2100 by year-end, representing a 2% price gain from the current level”. link
NOV. 20, 2014 - Goldman Sachs equity strategist David Kostin is out with his 2015 outlook for the S&P 500.
Kostin's price target: 2,100. link
(6) 2015 General Outlook
All the pieces keep adding up into a very serious economic and geopolitical game changer for 2015 - Gerald Celente link
The history wheel made its turning quietly this past month ( March 17, 2015)
The timing is so cryptic!!!
Weak Auction Sends U.S. Treasury Yields to April Highs
By Dow Jones Business News, April 09, 2015, 04:14:00 PM EDT
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/weak-auction-sends-us-treasury-yields-to-april-highs-20150409-01045
bluechip231: FXI/FXP pair
agreed on direction. imho, the Reward:Risk is deteriorating on long side (FXI); Magnitude wise, i have no idea.
I am off the market, use Corp bonds as my 'periodical' passive income.
Mobius: China Stocks Face 20% Drop After Rising-Too-Fast
FYI FWIW
Mark Mobius
- executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group.
- Father of Emerging Markets Funds http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Mobius
Chinese analyst : China bull market will be large-&-long
The Fox Borrows the Tiger's Ferocity
Chinese proverb: The Fox Borrows the Tiger's Ferocity.
I am saying those bullish E-wavers are "bullying" bears for too long. The Long term E-wave projection is susceptible with market underlying intrinsic conditions. Now, QE is behind us, ZIRP drives the index at a snail’s pace ( Q1 open 2058.90, close 2067.89), the market intrinsic is different from last few years. ... well, Let’s see whether their wishful thinking will transpire; Bear in mind, it is the Market deploy those waves, therefore, the master (Market) & slave relationship is clearly defined.
Iceland’s Radical Reform: Another Braindead Idea by Martin-Armstrong
FYI
The jobs report was a big miss
Obama hails 'historic' Iran deal
What’s going to happen to the Fed’s balance-sheet?
Goldman: Here's Where U.S. Investors Should Put
Iceland Ponders Radical Money Plan
Why are interest rates so low? Ben Bernanke
US manufacturing slows as orders and hiring weaken
US manufacturing slows as orders and hiring weaken
By JOSH BOAK AP Economics Writer7:13 A.M.APRIL 1, 2015
link
Wall Street dips at open after ADP report
04/01/15 Reuters
link
How do snails move?
SPX:
01/02, 2015 2058.90 open
03/31, 2015 2067.89 close
the-best-time to sell and go-away starts tomorrow
(Mark Hulbert gives April Fools' Day commentary?)
FWIW FYI
Huge economic miss from the Midwest