The New CS Board

[dindindon]

Chinese analyst : China bull market will be large-&-long

Bull charge sees Shanghai index reach 7-year high
By LI XIANG (China Daily)Updated: 2015-04-08 07:34
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-04/08/content_20021510.htm

The surge extended a rally in which the Shanghai index has risen by more than 60 percent in the past five months.

Analysts said liquidity is the main reason for the bull run, as investors have been withdrawing money from the weak property market and other investment channels.

"Be fearful when others are greedy", a famed philosophy of United States investment guru Warren Buffett, appears to be irrelevant in the Chinese market as retail investors flock to open new accounts amid the rally. The number of such accounts reached 1.6 million in the past week with trading value exceeding 6 trillion Yuan, according to the China Securities Depository and Clearing Co.

Xiao Shijun, a strategist at Guodu Securities Co, wrote in a research note: "The recent market rise has largely been driven by inflows of liquidity as the fundamentals of a slowing economy have not changed. Monetary policy will remain loose to support growth and reduce deflation risks"

Liu Jipeng, an economist at China University of Political Science and Law, said the Chinese stock market appears to have always been policy-driven. A bear market is unlikely to return as long as policymakers come up with the right decisions.

Read at your own peril

If we have a cyclic recovery, bull market will be large & long
2015-04-08 08:01:38 by Zen, GTJA Chief Macro-analyst

Zen's profile http://baike.baidu.com/view/13976719.htm

GTJA, Guotai Junan Securities Co. Ltd.
http://www.gtja.com/portal/channel/indexen.jhtml
a leading domestic securities company with comprehensive strength in the industry.

An excerpt:

China is running the third round of reform
curve: GDP Y/Y

data source: JTGA and WIND
Wind Information Co., Ltd
http://www.wind.com.cn/En/Default.aspx#
Wind Info serves more than 90% of the financial enterprises in the Chinese market.

Outlook:

L shape

U shape
IF China's economy runs in lower interest rates plus the reform incentive (third round of reform) to materialize a cyclic recovery, this bull market may be very large and last very long.

Gear into The middle-income trap & bear market

probability: 3:5:2 (L=3, U=5)

Text in full: (in Chinese simplified font)
http://www.guancha.cn/renzeping/2015_04_08_315102.shtml

i have mentioned a few China “blue Chips” ADR last year, for example CHL (China Mobile). LFC (China Life Insurance), SHI (Sinopec Shanghai) ... etc. Check charts to see how these stocks perform.


The Entertainment department

(The Road side analysis)

(Red Hot stock market) is a strategic plan aims on preventing capital fleeing China .... etc. It is a variant of currency war. They can pull the rug according to the chess game status, last example was 2007/Q4.

Fed terminated QE on schedule, Da Power's idea plan ( coupling with "other efforts" ) is counting on the hot money flowing back. ....

in additional, the recent gyration of USD (on the downside) is very unusual, intense.... many "foot kicking" under the table .... so far a tug of war ....