The New CS Board

[dindindon]

04/11/15 SPX

Last update 03/25

(1) Market Trend Charts – overall via this link

Market trend charts says we are in an ongoing stock bull market

(2) Fibonacci terminal points

Table: via this link
Upper Zones:
Zone 1 (2070-2130)
Zone 2 (2130-2214)
Zone 3 (2214-2317)

11/21/14
- Middle term upper target 2130.46, Long term upper target 2213.50
01/17/15
- To be bullish, the serious test remains in between 2069.93 and 2130.46 (zone 1).

2198 pops up in Anthony Caldaro’s daily report on April 9 and then on April 11, he wrote: “Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots.” link

2198 can be realized in this way:
- 2119.59 ATH on 02/25/15
- 2039.69 First low after ATH, 03/11/15
- 2199.49 = 2119.59 – 2039.69 + 2119.59
looks peculiar, but it is as simple as a pair of equal distance mirror points.

let’s check another set
- 2079.76 in this chart, 12/05 session high 2079.46
- 2079.76 * 1.02 = 2121.36 (ATH 2119.59)
- 2079.76 * 0.98 = 2038.16 (2039.69 is the First low after ATH)

On 12/05 (session high 2079.46) I wrote “i am ‘convinced’ the apex is around the corner (with + 1~2% overrun)”
Now we are approaching middle April, the projection made at that time was very reasonable.
The 2% came from two meaningful physical phenomenon, to be elaborated in the future.

(3) SPX Short term Lower rail

2029.52, 2005.40, 2004.02, 1973.79-1965.20 (refer to the table, Fibonacci terminal points )

(4) SPX Short term upper rail

2120.14, 2124.63, 2130.46, 2138.86, 2140.84

Apparently, index is moving into another critical juncture, the secondary high 2114.86 (03/23) is becoming a key watching point.

(5) Market analysts

Cycle expert Eri Hadik is bearish for the coming weeks (after 04/13).

April 2, 2015 - Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin
"We expect the S&P 500 will reach 2100 by year-end, representing a 2% price gain from the current level”. link

NOV. 20, 2014 - Goldman Sachs equity strategist David Kostin is out with his 2015 outlook for the S&P 500.
Kostin's price target: 2,100. link

(6) 2015 General Outlook

All the pieces keep adding up into a very serious economic and geopolitical game changer for 2015 - Gerald Celente link

The history wheel made its turning quietly this past month ( March 17, 2015)
The timing is so cryptic!!!

LAWRENCE SUMMERS, THE WASHINGTON POST
APR. 6, 2015, 8:37 AM

This past month may be remembered as the moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system.

True, there have been any number of periods of frustration for the United States before and multiple times when U.S. behavior was hardly multilateralist, such as the 1971 Nixon shock ending the convertibility of the dollar into gold.

But I can think of no event since Bretton Woods comparable to the combination of China's effort to establish a major new institution and the failure of the United States to persuade dozens of its traditional allies, starting with Britain, to stay out.

What is crucial is that the events of the past month will be seen by future historians not as the end of an era, but as a salutary wake-up call.

http://www.businessinsider.com/larry-summers-the-us-has-lost-its-role-as-the-worlds-economic-leader-2015-4

"history was a series of causal chains interacting with each other" - Edward Hallett Carr

Bretton Woods system http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system

A Senior Official of the Bank of England commented:

One of the reasons Bretton Woods worked was that the US was clearly the most powerful country at the table and so ultimately was able to impose its will on the others, including an often-dismayed Britain. At the time, one senior official at the Bank of England described the deal reached at Bretton Woods as “the greatest blow to Britain next to the war”, largely because it underlined the way in which financial power had moved from the UK to the US.

Harry White dominated the conference and imposed his vision of post-war financial institutions over the objections of John Maynard Keynes (the British representative. , July 1944)
At Bretton Woods, White was a major architect of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.