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gdl: Da Dollar short term peak has passed
http://forexrainbow.com/images/64599942706096499119.jpg
Gold - GDX NUGT DUST (2)
Gold - GDX NUGT DUST (2)- 12/25/15
Gold - GDX NUGT DUST (2) - 11/30/15
Elliott_Trader (aka Trader Joe)
Saturday, December 19, 2015
Listen ! (to the Market)
http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/12/listen-to-market.html
12/15/15 SPX
Review:
The lower supports 1991.75, 1994.20
are the 0.5000 retracements for:
2116.48-1871.91 and 2116.48-1867.01
respectively. and the low was 1993.26.
The Fibonacci projections does not yield a single target, So I have tried my best to guess these possible outcome.
The bottom chart shows to you that a very simple Fibonacci play can keep you in-check for intraday fast-in-fast out play.
2018.25 vs. 2019.49
1993.26 vs. 1991.75, 1994.20
12/12/15
12/15/15
12/12/15 SPX weekend
This is a draft version (Grammatical ... skips some sensitive geopolitical topics ,, etc)
Review
December 12, 2015
weekend update Tony caldaro
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/12/12/weekend-update-530/
After a four month uptrend from the August SPX 1867 Primary IV low, the SPX failed to make new highs and is now in a confirmed downtrend. This suggests to us, that the bad news of the current correction will lead to the good news of an extending bull market into at least next year. Primary V now has to divide into five Major waves/trends before the bull market ends. The bad news is good news bull market continues.
After the Primary IV downtrend low in August we labeled the five waves up of the new uptrend with Major waves. This was in anticipation that this first uptrend could end the bull market. The five waves progressed as expected, until the fifth wave failed to make a higher high in both the SPX/DOW. With the NDX/NAZ making higher highs, and the SPX/DOW not, we counted this pattern as a fifth wave failure. The five waves were SPX: 1993-1872-2116-2019-2104.
The entire uptrend is now considered to be Major wave 1 of Primary V, and the current downtrend Major wave 2.
11/04/15 11:49:24 AM with Edit
"Fundamental" analysis, observed
Hot Soak: The engine remains hot for a period of time after it is turned off
Two of the major engines to drive the stock bull market since 2009
(i) QE is behind us.
(ii) China 4 trillion stimulus package (2008-2012) is behind us. the “Hot Soak” phenomenon dragged another 2 years. in reality, China entered the deleveraging cycle since 2012, their leaders warned “painful” time ahead honestly. ( The next 5 years will be a painful period for the reform of Chinese economy, and the main goals need to be achieved by 2020. http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-09/06/content_21794795.htm )
in essence:
- stock bull market dual engines were in shutdown mode, The QE “Hot Soak” works at its finest Crescent moment. Bulls' only hope is the QE hot money flows back to the US stock market continuously. However, China are pulling the USD leg with his deliberative tactic maneuver. Let’s wait and see.
(extended reading: http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/03/06/dollar-imperialism-2015-edition/ )
Amanita Newsletter December 10, 2015
http://www.amanita.at/docs/open/newsletter-e.pdf
1. (Question) equity: what shall we wait for in 2016 for the main equity indices (DAX, EuroStoxx, Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq)? What does Bradley model foresee? Which are the main turning points of the year to come?
(Answer) The Amanita models suggest an equity bear market from 2015 into 2017.
6. (Question) If I had a large sum of money (in cash), what would you suggest me to do? Leave it all in cash, buying gold or diamonds? Land or stocks/ETFs?
(Answer) In my opinion, at present everybody who has a simple and straightforward answer to that question doesn’t know what he is talking of. There are no places to hide, so no safe haven.
As warned since 2013, the decade until 2023 is the first in history were you only have bad, very bad and terribly bad investments. For the first time in history the only reasonable financial goal is to avoid a total loss, as this decade will bring about the biggest wealth destruction in the history of mankind (especially in the early 2020s). So far this call has been spot on: now in late 2015 virtually all major asset classes are lower than at the 2013/14 highs, even in nominal terms. But actually the real wealth destruction hasn’t started yet, this is just peanuts
12/05/15 SPX weekend
review
- 11/22/15 SPX weekend
- in case reversal takes place before 2103, (Edit: 2104.27)
- then gives weight for "jogging" within two possible trend lines
- 11/28/15 SPX weekend
- chart http://forexrainbow.com/images/59940511716272688535.jpg
- As long as index stays above 2069.93 (zone 1 2069.93-2130.46), bulls gain the upper hand.
Status & Outlook
- 12/05/15 SPX weekend
- As long as index stays above 2069.93 the larger uptrend remains intact
- index remains "jogging" within two possible trend lines
- with upper resistance 2103 +/-, lower support 2054 +/-
- wait for trend-lines breakout to zoom in the possible Fibonacci points.
12/02 QCOM
- trend line support holds up the price for 9
- consecutive trading days, then Liftoff!
- up $3.55
- this call closed
Qualcomm (QCOM) Stock Soars on Xiaomi License Agreement
TheStreet(Wed 9:56AM EST)
link
archive
11/20/15
- panic selloff way overdone
11/28/15 SPX weekend
review
- 11/22/15 SPX weekend
- supports 2079 +/-, 2072 +/-, 2068 +/-
- in case reversal takes place before 2103,
- then gives weight for "jogging" within two possible trend lines
status
Bear defended the resistance point 2097.06 (0.809)
The pullback came closer to the projection point 2068+/-, more precisely speaking, to the lower point of Zone 1 2069.93-2130.46. See this chart posted on last weekend.
outlook
As long as index stays above 2069.93 (zone 1 2069.93-2130.46), bulls gain the upper hand.
11/27/15 SSE Composite Index
review
11/17/15 10:56:36 AM
11/17/15 SSE Composite Index
- Looks like the high target 3734 is a bit far to reach.
- Close all SSE Composite Index calls.
- from breakout point 3324 to 3604.80, thus +8.4%
status
KaBoom, down 5.48%
- brokerage stocks started the downward movement
- peak 3668.38 observed on 11/26 (target was 3734)
(green bar: down, red bar: up)
ADM
i report, You decide
Archer Daniels Midland’s Stock Reacts to Unimpressive Results
By Sue Miller November 4, 2015
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/archer-daniels-midland-stock-reacts-232857917.html
11/24, session low 35.86, ongoing
GOLDMAN: Stocks will go nowhere in 2016
11/24/15
David Kostin wrote: "year-end 2016 target of 2100"
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-2016-stock-market-outlook-2015-11
11/22/15 SPX weekend
review
11/14/15 SPX weekend
- support zone is in between 1994 -2019 (The same old battle zone)
- chart link
status
- bounced off 2019.39
outlook
- resistance 2097.94, 2103.47 (2100 +/-), 2115.20
- supports 2079 +/-, 2072 +/-, 2068 +/-
- in case reversal takes place before 2103,
- then gives weight for "jogging" within two possible trend lines
- wave count for reference, follows the popular "votes"
- but i felt thees popular count has the "trail" of "hand crafted art", not "nature"
Link to "Debt, Deflation and Danger" by Martin D. Weiss
Debt, Deflation and Danger
Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. | Monday, November 16, 2015 at 7:30 am
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/debt-deflation-danger-74255
web link: http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/
11/17/15 SSE Composite Index
- session closed @3604.80, high 3678.27
- Looks like the high target 3734 is a bit far to reach.
- Close all SSE Composite Index calls.
- from breakout point 3324 to 3604.80, thus +8.4%
archives:
11/05/15 11:10:54 AM
- “next” target 3734 (0.764 4006.34-2850.71)
- supports: 3324-3121
10/12/15 12:31:28 AM
An upward breakout (3324-3121) would be very bullish
11/14/15 SPX weekend
Support & Resistance
Moving averages (as of 11/13):
- resistance - EMA 200 and EMA 50 interleaves around 2037 +/-
- support - SMA 50 2008 +/-
Fibonacci:
- support zone is in between 1994 -2019 (The same old battle zone)
- resistance zone is 2019-2047
wave perspective by Tony Caldaro
weekend update
Posted on November 14, 2015
link
Medium term support is at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots.
11/13/15 SPX after close
11/12/15 04:01:58 PM
- there is an open gap 2021.88-2018.94 (on close/open basis) to be filled & neaby is a major Fib cluster zone 2018-2020.
session low 2022.02, close enough to 2021.88
gap remains open.
SPY ...
This is CHARTS_CCI_SYSTEM board, sorry, i posted so many "irrelevant" topics.
completed one Call and one PUT on SPY option
SPY 11/20/2015 204.00 C
SPY 11/20/2015 204.00 P
too fast, can not post "plan" in advance.
good enough for Today, Friday, the 13th ... sedation, deep musing day.
Have a nice weekend!
chart shows the Buy to Open and Sell to Close points
Blue: Call, Red PUT
World Oil Rapprochement: Saudi Russo Rapprochement Back-on-Track
11/05/15 11:39:32 AM
"Road side" news says Big brother Putin works "very hard" with Saudi Arabia ...
Saudi Russo Rapprochement Back on Track
November 12, 2015 F. William Engdahl
... Three major events not evident in June appeared to have ended the nascent cooperation between the two Cold War foes. Then reality and pragmatism appear to have set the improving relation between two of the world’s largest oil producers back on track in the past days ...
Full text
http://journal-neo.org/2015/11/12/saudi-russo-rapprochement-back-on-track/
11/12/15 SPX after close
review
11/09/15
- One may interpolate the zone (2047.41 - 2069.93) .....
status
- session low 2045.66, closed @2045.96.
- zone (2047.41 - 2069.93) has been retraced completely in one session.
- there is an open gap 2021.88-2018.94 (on close/open basis in the chart)
- to be filled & neaby is a major Fib cluster zone 2018-2020.
SRS Buy & Hold?
Your feedback is highly appreciated!
fundamental reason: Fed rate hike
anecdotal: my friends told me, buy house (in silicon valley), buy, buy buy. FaceBook Linkedin Google Apple drives regional housing market into euphoria, i think this is not true in other cities in average.
SRS:
ProShares UltraShort Real Estate seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate SM Index
fact sheet http://www.proshares.com/media/fact_sheet/ProSharesFactSheetSRS.pdf
main menu http://www.proshares.com/funds/srs.html
ETFs Tracking The Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index – ETF List
http://etfdb.com/index/dow-jones-us-real-estate-index/
"rock" solid bottom?
11/12/15 CVX
review
11/11/15 01:10:10 PM
- Overall, the upward wave "b" looks weak.
- dip below 91.76 to gauge the downward wave "c" may start.
status
- gap down, wave “c” has commenced
- i completed a CALL option CVX 11/20/2015 90.00 C in the first 25 minutes.
- keep watching.
wave count for conceptual illustration, it morphs quickly than i can perceive.
in a larger bullish context, wave 12345 may "upgrade" to wave 1 (a degree larger), wave abc may upgrade to wave 2 (a degree larger), no one knows for sure.
old chart: http://www.chartupload.com/images/49787251105303729701.jpg
11/12/15 SPX
review
11/09/15
- One may interpolate the zone (2047.41 - 2069.93)
- and comes out supports as: 2061.32 (0.382), 2058.67 (0.500)
- fine tuning is required after index shows more trails
status
- session low 2058.25, ongoing
- Tony Caldaro zooms in his primary wave V target 2214-2219, see quote.
- chart: link
-
- Bulls’ hope: No rate hike on December FOMC, Hot money flows back to US
- U.S. Stock Mutual Funds Suffer Biggest Weekly Outflow Since 2011 link
tony caldaro daily chat room
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/11/11/wednesday-update-517/#comments
Mr Market (@market_daddy) says:
November 11, 2015 at 4:39 pm
Tony,
Anything about the manner in which Pri V has unfolded thus far give you any clues as to which of your Targets is most likely? I seem to remember awhile back that the lower target (2214-2219) was favored with an overall 2-6 month timeframe. Is that still the most likely? Given where we’re at in the count, it seems very unlikely hit any of the higher targets…running out of time and waves.
tony caldaro says:
November 11, 2015 at 5:05 pm
still favor that one correct
The next three weeks will decide 2016 for the S&P
By Avi Gilburt
Published: Nov 9, 2015 11:34 a.m. ET
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-three-weeks-will-decide-2016-for-the-sp-2015-11-09?link=MW_TD
But if we still do get that lower low later this month, my upside target gets pushed out until at least the summer of 2016, and the target gets raised to at least 2459SPX.
So, while I am still questioning if we are heading directly to 2328, potentially by as early as the end of 2015 (but more likely into the first quarter of 2016), the SPX will still have two tests ahead of it to prove that to be the applicable target and timing.
11/11/15 Shanghai Composite Index, an early alert
review
11/05/15 11:10:54 AM
- “next” target 3734 (0.764 4006.34-2850.71)
- supports: 3324-3121
status
Keep an eye on margin debt status, an early alert.
Shanghai stock exchange “balance of financing” (brokerages’ net loaned capital and net loaned security) climbs up for consecutive 7 trading days, up to 1.1 trillion Yuan
see chart: (as of 2015-11-12 06:37)
http://posts.cdn.wallstcn.com/69/90/fc/qq-20151110091305.png!article.foil
A few brokerages cut the margin call (forced sell) percentage. For example: Ping An securities cut it from 140% to 130%
China Stocks Are Trouncing the World Again as Bubble Angst Fades
Oct 28, 2015 Kyoungwha Kim
Margin debt, volumes are picking up as Shanghai shares advance
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-28/china-stocks-are-trouncing-the-world-again-as-bubble-angst-fades
11/11/15 CVX
- i did 5 PUT Option trades yesterday, CVX 11/20/2015 93.00 P.
- Overall, the upward wave "b" looks weak.
- dip below 91.76 to gauge the downward wave "c" may start.
- so far, No action Today.
- Exit dividend date 11/16/15, $1.07
- 13 EMA @92.45, i guess the Div is holding the stock before the Exit date.
wave count for conceptual illustration, it morphs quickly than i can perceive.
old chart: http://www.chartupload.com/images/43155500380164629559.jpg
CVX intraday
completed one Call CVX 11/20/2015 92.50 C,
sub-wave b drags too long in time, felt shaky, closed out.
tiny profit, yeah!
- wild guess, dice rolling.... dangling & itching .
- dive below 92.10 to invalidate wave count
- you see, it is time consuming for posting intraday trades.
- place your dices bet ...
(No wave police please, for conceptual illustration only)
11/09/15 SPX
review
10/08/15
- Bull has a pending High target 2213.50
- So far, 2213.50 remains a pipe dream for E-wavers.
08/09/15 08:51:00 PM
link
Anthony Caldaro projects his wave P5 will bring the SPX to 2530-2630 by Q1/Q2(2016).
( https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/08/08/weekend-update-512/ ); IMHO, the chance is slim. Tony is a technician, he flips side quickly too
Priceline chokes
The Priceline Group Inc. (PCLN)
1,310.23 Down 139.67(9.63%)
Priceline's Outlook Leads Stock Lower, Despite Earnings Beat
11/09/15 TBT, Oils/China ETFs
11/06/15 - there are alternative playgrounds such as TBT, OILs, China ETFs ...etc
- CVX session 94.45-92.28 ongoing,
- Open 93.46, spikes up, then fills the gap & dips below.
- completed CVX PUT, CVX 11/20/2015 92.50 P
- too fast, no time to post in advance
- TBT up again, +1.54%, +$0.71. Sigh!, no time to catch, missed.
- China YANG up 4.5%, missed, beating my chest loudly, crying ...
Cycle & E-waver
Eric Hadik Beginning Nov. 4, 2015 Weekly Re-Lay Alert…
Released on November 6, 2015
Full text: http://www.consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/tech/1104tec-itt.htm
On an intra-year basis, the Indices were expected to see competing multi-month moves with the most bearish phase in the center of 2015. [EDIT: see Peter Eliades ]
The next truly bearish period--and more convincing facet of the larger-degree, 2015/2016 Crash Cycles--is expected to take hold after mid-Dec… when the greatest synergy of weekly and monthly cycles enter another down phase.
STOCKMARKET CYCLES - Prepared by Peter Eliades
The Cycles
November 3, 2015 Peter Eliades
Stockmarket Cycles
http://www.consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/fin-com/1115fc-pesc.htm
Anthony Caldaro Posted on November 7, 2015
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/11/07/weekend-update-525/
Primary V is currently underway from the August SPX 1867 low.
When Primary V concludes, which could be this year, the Cycle wave (1) bull market will be over, and a Cycle wave (2) bear market will follow.
11/07/15 Cycle & E-waver important timing
11/06/15
- read at you own peril: cycle man says new down phase after middle Dec.
Eric Hadik Beginning Nov. 4, 2015 Weekly Re-Lay Alert…
Released on November 6, 2015
Full text: http://www.consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/tech/1104tec-itt.htm
On an intra-year basis, the Indices were expected to see competing multi-month moves with the most bearish phase in the center of 2015. [EDIT: see Peter Eliades ]
The next truly bearish period--and more convincing facet of the larger-degree, 2015/2016 Crash Cycles--is expected to take hold after mid-Dec… when the greatest synergy of weekly and monthly cycles enter another down phase.
3-6 month and 6-12 month traders/investors should... [EDIT: reserved for subscriber]
STOCKMARKET CYCLES - Prepared by Peter Eliades
The Cycles
November 3, 2015 Peter Eliades
Stockmarket Cycles
http://www.consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/fin-com/1115fc-pesc.htm
Anthony Caldaro Posted on November 7, 2015
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/11/07/weekend-update-525/
Primary V is currently underway from the August SPX 1867 low.
When Primary V concludes, which could be this year, the Cycle wave (1) bull market will be over, and a Cycle wave (2) bear market will follow.
11/06/15 SPX schizophrenic market
- I did not participate the main index "playgrounds"
- there are alternative playgrounds such as TBT, OILs, China ETFs ...etc
- watch SPX 2110-2115 breakout (2110 for ES) to see new ATH ( >2134.72)
- so far, 2100-2115 is a brick zone, (Ok, crack a little bit, 2116.48 on 11/03)
- zones in this table
- read at you own peril: cycle man says new down phase after middle Dec.
- You have a nice weekend!
PEK CHAU & SSE Composite Index
review
11/01/15 03:40:41 PM
PEK may assault 47.5-48, support is the 50 SMA. The best entry was 40 +/- for early birds, it closed @44.83 on 10/30.
11/05/15 11:10:54 AM
- sold CHAU (2x Bull, CSI 300 China A Share ) and PEK (1X Bull, portfolios invest in stocks from China, Taiwan and Hong Kong)
Oil & Gold
completed one quick round of PUT option on COP
exciting days, heeeheehe
some material wrote last night (& posted in Traders-Talk) with morning Edit.
11/02/15 09:44:08 AM
A potential buy zones for NUGT
(1) 32.8 +/-
(2) 25.5-28.5
STOCKMARKET CYCLES - Prepared by Peter Eliades
The Cycles
November 3, 2015 Peter Eliades
Stockmarket Cycles
http://www.consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/fin-com/1115fc-pesc.htm
OXY CVX
11/04/15 01:34:08 PM: i am busy on OXY CVX November PUT options
CVX 95.18, down 1.59, session 96.55-94.76,
OXY 75.96, up 0.20, session 76.99-75.15
Yami Yami on CVX, so so on OXY
closed out all, wait for another pulse .....
CVX is a buy around 89-90 (may not see it), Exit DIV Date 11/16, DIV $1.07
"Road side" news says Big brother Putin works "very hard" with Saudi Arabia, to "close out cash burning Yemen headache with good face" to "exchange" with Saudi Arabia cutting oil output ... who knows what is going on out there...
Saudi Arabia to run out of cash in less than 5 years http://qz.com/533141/imf-saudi-arabia-is-in-danger-of-running-out-of-money-within-five-years/