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[dindindon]

E-waver Tony’s bullish numbers explained

weekend update
Anthony Caldaro Posted on February 21, 2015
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When Primary III does conclude we should see a steep correction for Primary IV, then another advance to new highs for Primary V. This suggests this bull market still has a ways to go in time and price.

As promised we are now posting our next long term target for this bull market: SPX 2530 to SPX 2630 by Q1/Q2 2016. This target will be posted on the SPX weekly chart, like the ones in the past that have been achieved.

We were counting the impulsive advance from the recent SPX 2042 low as it unfolded. there are three possible ways of counting this pattern. ... ... The first possibility suggests the maximum this uptrend could reach is SPX 2145.

(Tony’s original chart)

Tony’s numbers, 2530, 2630, and 2145, explained:

For easy reference, I use Tony’s wave count nomenclature as is.
The realization process involves a higher degree of freedom so that the first two numbers can only be matched with reasonably aberration.
Let’s see whether E-waver’s wishful thinking will transpire. Bear in mind, it is the Market deploy those waves, therefore, the master & slave relationship is clearly defined.

(1) Firstly, we will need to find out the possible high for wave III

2130.46 in this chart

(2) then, find out the possible wave IV low

Use a minimum retracement 0.236
Wave IV 1881.32 = [0.236:( 2130.46, 1074.77)],

(3) final step, use wave III ducking on Wave IV for wave V

2533.74 = 1881.32 + 0..618 * (2130.46 – 1074.77)
2627.69 = 1881.32 + 0..707 * (2130.46 – 1074.77)

(4) wave constraint
The wave constraint can be visualized in daily chart. it is bounded by a FIB ratio 0.3236 (=1.618/5) in between 2132.50-2170.28 in this chart

2145 == 2144.73 = [0.3236 : (2132.50, 2170.28)]



Archive:

dindindon Friday, 01/30/15 11:12:30 PM

'A few' E-woofers say SPX is in wave 3, after down wave 4, we will see blah blah blah ATH wave 5. This melody has been out there for quite a while, very ‘loud’. Let me 'jinx' it, How about a wave 5 Truncation?

Basic Tenets of the Elliott Wave Principle

A truncated fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. It can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves, as illustrated in the following figure

Truncation gives warning of underlying weakness or strength in the market. In application, a truncated fifth wave will often cut short an expected target.



http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics2.htm