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Re $ABBV (with comments that affect MNTA, GILD, and others) -
From GS's report on ABBV:
$FMSA/$SLCA - The sand companies have been killed by the falling price of oil. It is clear that they are incredibly cheap, but, as always, they may get cheaper in the short term (or even mid-term). I favor $FMSA since I know the founder families and it seems to be the cheapest. I have established a large position over the last couple weeks, and will probably add if the price stays down or goes lower. There is an industry conference put on by Wells Fargo this week that may help, at least for awhile. If one believes that the fracking boom will continue, sand seems to be a pretty cheap way to participate.
From Wells:
You say:
The video of the HCV hearings, including Bernie Sanders comments - starts around minute 22:
http://www.veterans.senate.gov/hearings/hepatitis-c-in-veterans
Among many interesting comments: estimate that the VA will spend $1.3B in next two years - avarage of ~$160MM/qtr. Also said that most advanced patients have had priority.
From VA testimony today re HCV:
From Wells;
Sort of OT re $GILD and $ABBV:
Had colonoscopy and endoscopy last week. Found a virus that causes gastritis that has to be treated.
Doctor called yesterday with treatment of same. He is practicing both Gastroenterology and Hepatology. After the discussion about my health, I brought up Hep C treatments.
We had a long conversation. He said "patients are coming out the woodwork." People that he had treated unsuccessfully many years ago are coming in. He is looking forward to competition in the hope that prices will come down. He said that GILD had done the right thing by agreeing to pick up the co-pays for almost everyone. He has written one 8 week Harvoni Rx. The cure of the patients is one of the most rewarding things that he has ever had. He is treating everyone who comes in, not just the ones who are sickest, though it has been more difficult in some situations to get approvals. So far, he has gotten approvals on everything. He was surprised that the EU pricing was in the $40-60K level - he thought it would have be lower. He knew that ABBV was up for approval soon. He did not think that there was any warehousing before ABBV approval, but again said that he hoped that prices would come down so that it would not be as hard to get approvals. His department (in Cleveland Clinic) has two full time people working on approvals.
Just thought the whole conversation was interesting. He clearly was surprised that I knew so much about the various players - JNJ, MRK, BMY, etc. He had attended the recent conference.
From Wells (not exactly from the same report - from three different ones):
Interesting videos on HVC treatments in US and EU (thanks to @HenryEChang on twitter):
http://s318638489.onlinehome.us/files/aasld2014/
http://hosted.medipix.com/aasld2014_eu/index_player.html?program=aasld2014_eu
So I should sell my AMGN, I guess.
From Wells:
$FMSA - earnings were good. Guidance was OK (haven't listened to call yet). Still pretty cheap - especially compared to SLCA and others in the industry. Ended yesterday with twice the number of shares that I started. There might be another good entry point when lock-up expires in April. Will be interesting to watch until then.
FMSA - Fairmount Santrol - IPOed last month at 16, down from range of 21-24. Bought a little on IPO, and more that day at a little over 16. Have been a buyer as it went down to ~10, and watched as it went up to 15. Has been hit over last couple weeks on oil price decline. Went under 11 last week and rebounded on Friday. Earnings (first since public) are tomorrow morning. Stock opened strong this morning and now is under a lot of pressure. I am buying quite a bit more on a gamble that earnings will be strong. The real issue will be guidance about fracking demand for next quarter and next year. At around 10 times projected earnings, I hope it is not a big risk. JMO.
Wapakoneta - I am from Lima, Ohio. Wapakoneta is in greater Limaland It is a sleepy place for anyone from either coast or a metropolitan area.
Lima has had many economic problems in the last 50 years, much like other small cities in Ohio like Lorain, Mansfield, and Warren, as well as larger cities like Youngstown and Dayton. The
magazine Rolling Stone had a recent article blasting Lima which you might find interesting.
Results of an internet poll on ABBV/ENTA pricing and expected 2015 market share - around 100 responses:
https://www.chimeraresearchgroup.com/2014/11/abbv-survey-results-free-content/
$JNJ $GILD - Olysio/Sovaldi combo "approved" (though it has been used heavily already). When was its PDUFA date? Edit: Found it - it was tomorrow.
Re Big Cap Bio - continued incredible performance. AMGN, CELG and GILD all hit new all-time highs and closing highs. REGN not up to the highs from last week.
Re Big Cap Bio - did some research on a few of the biggest bio companies and how well they have been performing lately - especially the last 6 months. The exception is BIIB, which hit its all time high in February and has not been able to retrace yet. But GILD, AMGN, CELG, and REGN have been great performers for large companies. I used closing prices for the following analysis.
GILD - up 47+% YTD; up 44+% last 6 months; up 69% from bottom on 4/10; 23 new all-time closing highs since June; new all-time high and closing high today
AMGN - up 31% YTD; up ~31% last six months; up 34% from low on 5/8; 15 new all-time highs since July; new all-time high yesterday and closing high today
CELG - up 22% YTD; up 46% last six months; up ~51% from low on 4/11; 14 new all-time highs since May; new all-time high and closing high today
REGN - up 46.5% YTD; up 37% last six months; up 41.5% from low on 4/4; 12 new all-time highs since July; new all-time high and closing high today
Personally, I think GILD and AMGN are still pretty cheap and CELG may have best risk/reward ratio. Still think REGN too expensive, but have missed the entire run and know that it might keep running. Mostly think that all of them have better risk/reward than most companies discussed here. Especially for those of us that don't diversify broadly - like me.
From Wells:
Agreed that the sum of both is the the most important - especially the NRx numbers. Will take a while to get anywhere near the prior high, if ever. At least the total numbers (5153 and 2127) are going in the right direction, but a long way from the tops which were around 9000 and 4000. Not at a computer today so cannot post Wells until tonight or tomorrow. Market clearly likes numbers, but extent of duration of warehousing growth not clear for a while. Part of market reaction is return of big cap bio to favor. Many all-time highs today. Will try to quantify later.
GILD - Adam F says IMS will have Harvoni numbers by noon
JNJ earnings before the bell tomorrow. Will provide Olysio Q3 sales (and maybe some color on outside US ["OUS"] sales for Q4 and '15). I will mostly be interested in Q3 sales OUS in order to guess at Sovaldi Q3 sales OUS. Script numbers in US for Olysio have held up much better than Sovaldi from heights - scripts for Sovaldi in Q3 were down ~25% and Olysio scripts were up slightly. Clearly, since the only use of Olysio has been with Sovaldi, the percentage use of the combination has gone up significantly. Looks to be about 40%+ now.
Will be interesting to follow both US and OUS sales of Olysio in Q4 and especially in 15Q1. I would expect US sales almost to disappear by 15Q1, but think that OUS might still be rising then since there seems to such a huge delay in the pick of approved sales OUS (in the EU especially).
The results of an earlier poll here (http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board_survey_results.asp?board_id=1418&Survey_Num=158) were a majority thought GILD's approval would be on time (Octber) and ABBV/ENTA's would be earlier (pre-December). One has proven right. Time will tell if there other one is.