Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

Harvoni/Sovaldi TRx for week ending 11/7/14 (per IMS):

Harvoni: 2,865
Sovaldi: 4,074
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Harvoni+ Sovaldi: 6,939, +10% vs prior week

H/t @ianestepan.

The more important number (IMO) is NRx:

Harvoni: 2,768
Sovaldi: 1,170
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Harvoni+ Sovaldi: 3,938, +18% vs prior week

The NRx number is almost a record. The record of 3,941 was on 2/28. The TRx record was 9,054 on 5/9. So we can expect much higher numbers of TRx in next two months. Had been getting pretty nervous with the Q4 estimates since they are so high. I still think that some of them are way too optimistic, which may be one reason the stock has been hit recently. But these NRx numbers are very positive for TRx numbers into January. Seems more likely that Q4 US sales will be just a little above Q3, and not near Q2. Non-US sales will be the unknown (as always).

It will be the NRx numbers that everyone will be watching for the rest of the quarter, especially after the ABBV approval. It will drive 1Q15 numbers.

The fact that Olysio is still having NRx is a surprise. The number for the most recent week is 417, down from 425. Issue is whether 12 weeks with Sovaldi is cheaper than 24 weeeks of Harvoni?