re: "He had similar expression for PRANA drug and trial. So not very reliable "
re:"That's not what I remember - can you back your claim up with the EXACT quote about PRANA, including how many people he was talking about?
We may recall an article from 2013
"Macfarlane said that the drug seems to have slowed the progression of the disease by about 30 percent in patients with mild Alzheimer’s compared to placebo"
MacPharlane's also makes a more upbeat remark was about a single patient out of the whole group who managed to show some improvement as a "preliminary response" . This is what certain people seem to remember while forgetting about his objective factual account quoted above describing mediocre (ie not very good) PRANA results overall, in the same article.
Macpharlane is reliable. Just how the press chooses to adjust emphasis in a story for maximum public readership appeal is sometimes unreliable in regard to presenting reality. Will they write: "Ten million people bought lottery tickets but didn't win." or "Poor man wins fortune!".
"The article indirectly references Prana’s oral drug, called PBT2, and the IMAGINE trial, discussing the benefits that have been observed in a 57-year-old Alzheimer’s patient named Kelvin Lawler.
Further, Prana was pegged to the article with an image of its experimental 250 mg red pill and pill bottle with the name of the drug used in the accompanying video.
According to Associate professor Steve Macfarlane, who has been overseeing the trial at Melbourne’s Caulfield Hospital as part of the global study, the preliminary response by Lawler has been “incredible.” Macfarlane noted a clear improvement in Lawler’s memory, saying Lawler is a “poster child for success in clinical trials.”
The IMAGINE trial is a 12-month, double-blind study where patients are administered PBT2 once per day and tested once per month for any effect."
There is no comparison, no parallel in past trials to what we are seeing now in regard to good results with Anavex 2-73
re: "Look under your bed. What do you see? "
"We stopped looking for monsters under our bed when we realized they were inside us" -- Charles Darwin
If AVXL was being manipulated, how would we know?
Motive, opportunity, methods?
Does it fit a certain profile?
Pattern and timing of block trades?
re:"Taking Anavex completely out of the equation, if a biotech company (any "other" biotech company) leaves off critical information from their presentations, would it be wise for investors to fill in the blanks with the most positive method possible? "
Regardless, the current standard of care is 100% fail.
Using your schoolchildren class example. The competing class is all "F". It would nice to be all 'A's but unlike big pharma shooting for the moon to get "D-", it seems obvious we are passing grade at least at this point. Regardless if a few students skip class.
If, after reading 111,398 posts and all the outside bio-science information available you still feel "leery about investing", well, I would say, don't. I believe people who have a portion of their portfolio as a passive investment in Anaves, made their decision a long time ago and don't particularly care whether you invest here or not. Don't feel obligated to follow the crowd.
Why is it so hard to decide? For example, I looked at a competitor with a sample group of three. Well. they started with four. The fourth was ostensibly starting to show signs of improvement right before they died.
Another patient was reported to sit up suddenly like Lazarus and try to vocalize. The spin was that this was an improvement. Well, the compound had been previously shown to produce severe abdominal pains (in mice), so it seems more likely the behavior was due to that and an attempt to scream in pain.
Supposedly, another patient was now "playing pool". Well, how was their game? Were they actually playing before? Or , well, it's pretty easy to prop somebody up with a pool cue in hand and knock a few balls around.
It wasn't necessary to go much further. I not only felt leery, downright quesy at the spin factor at work here. Forget buying into that. though it meant "reading between the lines" a bit. Right?
Now we have, what, 25 or 30 sample group so far with Anavex. Kind of small but enough to get a decent indication. Reading between the lines, very positive indications. many very unambigious clinically tested and clinically credible reports of effectiveness.
A few dropouts. OK. Anything serious? No. These people are old, pushing 80, probably not all with a patient or sunny personality to begin with, one has to expect some to decide to quit. It may be a mistake but it's theirs to make.
I could well imagine some geezer saying" I'm tired of all this silly testing. I feel better. I'm going home!"
One of the reasons I rarely drink anymore compared to when I was young is that I no longer care for the accompanying dizziness and headache. So, same thing. Was the treatment making them deathly ill? No.
The only one that was what, level 2 had dementia. A neighbor's mother had dementia. He had to leave her alone for a couple hours and returned to find that she had built a bonfire on the front lawn. Said she was cold. It was July. The point is that people with dementia don't always exhibit good judgement. Still, they're not guinea pigs (or lab-rats whatever). They can quit whenever they want for any reason. We do know for a fact that no one dropped out for serious adverse events which would have been mandatory to report.
I'm simply sharing some insights on the decision process.
Speaking of graphics, perhaps you'll find the following as useful in that regard as I have. :)
re: "Perhaps the ApoE4 gene provided a survival advantage in ancient environments. Today only about a quarter of us have a single copy of the ApoE4 gene, and only about two in a hundred carry a double dose. But DNA analysis of ancient bones shows that thousands of years ago, the ApoE4 genotype was ubiquitous in humans. The gene — which helps to generate cholesterol — might have been a crucial step in the development of our big, energy-hungry brains, and it may have played a key role in defending those brains from pathogenic invaders."
In case an additional opinion on the article may be of interest.:
In a previous post, I noted that Innuits have no AD and theorized that it may be due to their "Paleo" diet. Basically this refers to the Paleolithic prehistoric era wherein our ancestors mainly ate meat, and little else. The Tsimane tribe also appears to derive most of their nutrition from hunting. Besides fairing better in regard to CNS disease, the researchers found that the Tsimane "have the cleanest arteries of any population that has ever been studied, meaning that they may be largely immune to heart disease."
The researchers see a possible link to them having certain parasites in their systems. Well. Maybe. But one thing we haven't really covered in any discussion I've seen so far is, what picks up the S1 receptor naturally? The corollary being that it isn't being triggered properly when needed in modern civilization humans, probably due to our necessity of eating mass produced food. I'm thinking the high lectin load in popular carbohydrates being pushed as "healthy", not to mention sugar, various chemicals like Roundup showing up in everything from baby formula to vaccines...
The phrase, "a key role in defending those brains from pathogenic invaders." may be the gene and/or response to parasites but, somehow the natural S1 triggering/modulation protocol is being dusrupted. Giving the S1 receptor constellation a little help (via 2-73) would explain the dramatic "unexpectedly" positive results seen thus far. It also appears that not just any S1 agonist will do.
I'm not about to give up my favorite modern foods any more than I would want wild parasites (there seems to be a friend or foe situation with that). Even if one can achieve the right stuff in their gut it's likely the S1 system is still being screwed up by a constant input of negative influences and thusly still benefits from the delicate antidote effects of 2-73.
It is also a bit irksome that the article ends with apparent obligatory pumping of amyloid obliteration even though the researchers report wasn't about that. I suppose we'll have to keep expecting information for public consumption to be "managed" in favor of entrenched paradigms. At least for a while yet here.
Revenues soon. Wholesale orders being taken and sales contracts likely being signed as we speak. (so to speak)
Then ramp up continues. Short path to profit due to no marketing expenses to speak nor massive sales infrastructure required with b2b model.
re:"This company was worth more WITHOUT the selling license. WTF?? "
Yeah. This is crazy. Maybe we should ask Fowler to give the license back. :)
This is totally artificial. Volume of sprwf was miniscule. Hedge funds (whatever) who want in can take advantage of the low volume to walk the price down. They also know that most of us retail already bought, us being in the know, so, as buyers we already shot off our ammo. Remaining potential new retail buyers (not being that familiar) are going to hang back when they see the price going down.
The way price gets walked down is short larger blocks into the bid until it goes down, cover a little at time when that triggers some retail selling, etc.
In this pre-momentum wide-spread environment, buying at the ask is going to get you short shares that feeds the process. A potential strategy here, if one decides to buy is protect the bid, slightly below, pile on the bid. And step in front of them slightly above. This keeps them from covering and compels them to move their bid up.
I did this recently on another stock. I may have been bidding against a computer algo, I don't know, the "adjustments" came pretty fast. It was kind of funny. I'd raise a tenth, they'd raise a tenth, did this about a dozen times. Time consuming but It was kind of a fun experiment actually. :)
re:"Well it's still as negative regardless... You will receive 20% less than you would have before dilution of any market cap that the stock ends up reaching. "
Infinity minus 20% is still infinity. :)
OK. If everything Anavex has in the works comes to fruition, sky's the limit, but let's say new standard of care for just AD. What's that worth, market cap-wise? $5 billion?
One could say Anavex is like a gold mine. Of course investing in mining jrs is tricky as always as with jr biotech. But let me go with the mining analogy for a bit.
Let's say a gold explorer discovers gold and raises $100 million for diamond drilling and dilineates an ore body with $1 billion worth of gold in it. Having the drill cores analyzed to be NI 43-101 compliant is the mining equivalent of clinical testing. It establishes that it is not a scam. If the drill holes are 300 yards apart and hitting decent grades, it's pretty likely that the ore is contiguous. Reserves are categorized by confidence level which is why work continues to increase that.
So it's not a scam. The gold is there. Is the market cap of the gold miner now going to $1 billion. Well, the gold is not going to jump out of the ground on its own. So the would-be investor has to figure out, how much is it going to cost to dig the gold out? If it is going to cost $1 billion or more to get it, then its value is essentially zero. Forget it. Unless the price of gold goes up.
AD continues to be on the rise, more preditable than gold.
So, how much is it going to cost to get Anavex 2-73 to market? We need to subtract that from the $5 billion. It doesn't have to be spent all at once, indeed, pay-as-you-go is a prudent course and we seem to be getting a little help on the way. But to complain about a 20% whatever equity raise now is to assume bringing it to market from present at zero cost, that we can somehow have the full $5 billion with no further investment up front. That's a fallacy.
So, is it going to cost $1 billion more? That would be 20% of the projected $5 billion. No, it's 20% of our current market cap. If we need to raise another $100 million or whatever, $200 million, that would be $200 million to get $4.8 billion.
re:"should have been left in halt until tomorrow morning "
Yeah. It coming off the halt when it did caught me off guard. Added a bit at $1.10 - oh well. Switching strategy from sitting on the bid in a limbo environment to helping kick off momentum, pretty safe to buy on the ask in this situation.
May be an attempted block dump in the morning, but just as likely this will be quickly jumped on as best momentum play around.
Shucks. So, not quite the news we've been waiting for...
Still, good news nonetheless...
There was some concern about being able to sell the rather sizable inventory building up in the vault. That's going to be ok now.
Expansion and extension of allowances - improvement of license parameters, that's also positive.
Good for +5% pps so far. Heading back in the right direction.
Seems too early for a buyout. Doesn't really feel like it, unless we got an offer... We would still need to vote on something like that. It would have to be a beaucoup offer because whatever it is would be a lot more down the road...
Nah, I'm going with guessing sales license
re:" In biotechs - certain steps such as pk/pd data have expected timelines - and if companies start slipping them - assume that something is wrong "
Nothing is wrong. Posters complaining that they want pk/pd data - do they even know what thay are asking for? Below is an example of pk/pd data - there will be hundreds of pages like that for each patient. It's meaningless and irrelevant to an investor.
re: "There is only one thing we commonly consume that is more expensive. "
Actually saffron is pretty comparable (if one is into making gourmet seasoned rice), a kilogram requires 110,000–170,000 crocus flowers each from which only the stigma (thread) is plucked (traditionally by maidens in flowing white robes using zircon encrusted tweezers) $5.99 US per gram...
re:" Latest HC News
Effective immediately, Health Canada is implementing the following measures:
•Increasing the Department’s capacity to review and process applications.
•Undertaking some stages of the review of the application concurrently.
•Permitting licensed producers to manage production on the basis of their vault capacity.
•Authorizing longer validity periods for licences and security clearances in accordance with the regulations.
•Streamlining the review and approval of applications to modify or expand an existing production facility for licensed producers with a record of good compliance with the ACMPR."
That should help. HC under new management.
re:"Looks like the AH trade for 50 shares at 6.20 held. Tomorrow's pre-market should give us an indication of it's meaning. Hopefully good news. "
No need to get too excited. Somebody probably just entered a market order by mistake.
I think the Preferreds not going through by a small margin is making things more difficult. A deal on a non-voting stake would have made a nice safe "instant" slot for a potential partner that is actually interested in a win-win and not trying to take over.
Now any licensing deal is more likely to involve a lot of hard bargaining over a longer time frame since it puts the potential licensee in more of an adversarial position. (Or so one might theorize.)
Maybe another vote will be tried again at some point...
re: "...still waiting... "
HC approval real soon now. Just like running a plate at Zootopia DMV
One of the biggest companies in the world, Nestle, trades just fine on the OTC. Not sure exactly how much NYSE charges a company to list but I believe we're talking million dollar area fees. Maybe it's worth it somehow for XCO, I don't know.
Most important thing is not to stand in their way in regard to the main plan for achieving lowest cost production. I think that means high volume, but then that also means faster depletion. I'm going to assume these guys know their stuff, so if they've got some good replacement assets lined up, we need to let them have at it. imo
Just listened to an interview with Canopy CEO talking about how they're going to do a streaming thing too and have a kind of Amazon platform (my interpretation) offering clients products... Anyway... He made an interesting off-hand remark... I think I know why HC is taking so long (as usual) with us (Supreme).
He mentioned that they have been inspected 150 times. 150 times!
So, apparently HC spends most of their time re-inspecting all the (what is there now, 40) installations and then when they're done, maybe looks at one pending application, then, goes back around the inspection circuit...