Home > Boards > US Listed > Biotechs > Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

re:"Well it's still as negative regardless... You will

Public Reply | Private Reply | Keep | Last ReadPost New MsgReplies (1) | Next 10 | Previous | Next
apostrophe Member Profile
 
Followed By 19
Posts 1,084
Boards Moderated 0
Alias Born 10/17/06
160x600 placeholder
Anavex Life provides key updates on clinical trials in rare genetic neurological disorders Seeking Alpha - 11/24/2021 9:40:36 AM
Anavex Life Sciences EPS misses by $0.39 Seeking Alpha - 11/24/2021 7:07:01 AM
Anavex Life Sciences Provides Business Update and Reports Fiscal 2021 Year End Financial Results GlobeNewswire Inc. - 11/24/2021 7:00:00 AM
Notable earnings after Wednesday's close Seeking Alpha - 11/23/2021 5:35:23 PM
Anavex Life Sciences FY 2021 Earnings Preview Seeking Alpha - 11/23/2021 1:20:23 PM
Notable earnings before Wednesday's open Seeking Alpha - 11/23/2021 10:42:34 AM
Anavex Life Sciences to Announce Fiscal 2021 Year End Financial Results on Wednesday, November 24, 2021 GlobeNewswire Inc. - 11/17/2021 7:00:00 AM
Anavex Life Sciences Announces Participation at Upcoming Lausanne VIII Workshop Panel - Building Global Momentum for Interventions in Alzheimer’s Disease GlobeNewswire Inc. - 11/10/2021 7:00:00 AM
Anavex Life Sciences to Present at the Dawson James Securities 6th Annual Conference GlobeNewswire Inc. - 10/15/2021 7:00:00 AM
Anavex Life Sciences Reports Data Review by the Independent Data Safety Monitoring Board for its Phase 2b/3 Clinical Trial of ANAVEX®2-73 in Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease GlobeNewswire Inc. - 10/13/2021 7:00:00 AM
Cassava down after phase 3 simufilam announcement; other Alzheimer's names follow Seeking Alpha - 10/6/2021 12:51:22 PM
CEO Presenting on the Emerging Growth Conference on September 29  Register Now InvestorsHub NewsWire - 9/28/2021 8:00:00 AM
Anavex Life Sciences Announces Participation at 5th Pharma Pricing, Reimbursement & Market Access 2021 GlobeNewswire Inc. - 9/27/2021 9:30:00 AM
Current Report Filing (8-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 9/27/2021 8:11:01 AM
Anavex Life Sciences Announces Uplisting to the NASDAQ Global Select Market® GlobeNewswire Inc. - 9/27/2021 7:00:00 AM
Automatic Shelf Registration Statement of Securities of Well-known Seasoned Issuers (s-3asr) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 9/24/2021 5:05:26 PM
Anavex Life Sciences to Present at the 2021 Cantor Virtual Global Healthcare Conference GlobeNewswire Inc. - 9/20/2021 7:00:00 AM
CEO Presenting on the Emerging Growth Conference Today!  Register Now InvestorsHub NewsWire - 9/15/2021 7:00:00 AM
Anavex Life Sciences to Present at the H.C. Wainwright 23rd Annual Global Investment Conference GlobeNewswire Inc. - 9/9/2021 7:00:00 AM
CEO Presenting on the Emerging Growth Conference Today.  Register Now InvestorsHub NewsWire - 9/1/2021 7:00:00 AM
Anavex Life Sciences Announces Publication of Foundational Data for ANAVEX®2-73 (blarcamesine) in Fragile X Syndrome (Autism) GlobeNewswire Inc. - 8/26/2021 7:00:00 AM
Quarterly Report (10-q) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 8/12/2021 5:13:54 PM
Anavex Life Sciences Provides Business Update and Reports Fiscal 2021 Third Quarter Financial Results GlobeNewswire Inc. - 8/12/2021 7:00:00 AM
Anavex Life Sciences to Announce Fiscal 2021 Third Quarter Financial Results on Thursday, August 12, 2021 GlobeNewswire Inc. - 8/5/2021 7:00:00 AM
Statement of Changes in Beneficial Ownership (4) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 8/4/2021 5:41:46 PM
apostrophe   Friday, 06/30/17 06:12:31 PM
Re: ExtremelyBullishZig post# 110036
Post # of 337840 
re:"Well it's still as negative regardless... You will receive 20% less than you would have before dilution of any market cap that the stock ends up reaching. "

Infinity minus 20% is still infinity. :)

OK. If everything Anavex has in the works comes to fruition, sky's the limit, but let's say new standard of care for just AD. What's that worth, market cap-wise? $5 billion?

One could say Anavex is like a gold mine. Of course investing in mining jrs is tricky as always as with jr biotech. But let me go with the mining analogy for a bit.

Let's say a gold explorer discovers gold and raises $100 million for diamond drilling and dilineates an ore body with $1 billion worth of gold in it. Having the drill cores analyzed to be NI 43-101 compliant is the mining equivalent of clinical testing. It establishes that it is not a scam. If the drill holes are 300 yards apart and hitting decent grades, it's pretty likely that the ore is contiguous. Reserves are categorized by confidence level which is why work continues to increase that.

So it's not a scam. The gold is there. Is the market cap of the gold miner now going to $1 billion. Well, the gold is not going to jump out of the ground on its own. So the would-be investor has to figure out, how much is it going to cost to dig the gold out? If it is going to cost $1 billion or more to get it, then its value is essentially zero. Forget it. Unless the price of gold goes up.

AD continues to be on the rise, more preditable than gold.

So, how much is it going to cost to get Anavex 2-73 to market? We need to subtract that from the $5 billion. It doesn't have to be spent all at once, indeed, pay-as-you-go is a prudent course and we seem to be getting a little help on the way. But to complain about a 20% whatever equity raise now is to assume bringing it to market from present at zero cost, that we can somehow have the full $5 billion with no further investment up front. That's a fallacy.

So, is it going to cost $1 billion more? That would be 20% of the projected $5 billion. No, it's 20% of our current market cap. If we need to raise another $100 million or whatever, $200 million, that would be $200 million to get $4.8 billion.






Public Reply | Private Reply | Keep | Last ReadPost New MsgReplies (1) | Next 10 | Previous | Next
Follow Board Follow Board Keyboard Shortcuts Report TOS Violation
X
Current Price
Change
Volume
Detailed Quote - Discussion Board
Intraday Chart
+/- to Watchlist
Consent Preferences