[Mother Lode]

"Trump Moves to Open Up 625 Million Acres to Offshore Drilling"

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Trump-Moves-to-Open-Up-625-Million-Acres-to-Offshore-Drilling.html

[Mother Lode]

In 2023 there were 240 operational off shore rigs 37 of which are owned by Transocean (15%)I If they open up the east coast demand will outstrip supply

"Trump to declare 'national energy emergency' to open up resource extraction
The order could open up drilling in areas that the Biden administration sought to preserve, including in Alaska and off the East Coast."

[Mother Lode]

Carlos Slim Invested $1B In American Oil & Gas Companies In 2024

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Carlos-Slim-Invested-1B-In-American-Oil-Gas-Companies-In-2024.html

[Mother Lode]

Transocean Ltd. Announces $111 Million Ultra-Deepwater Drillship Contract

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/12/17/2998648/0/en/Transocean-Ltd-Announces-111-Million-Ultra-Deepwater-Drillship-Contract.html

[Mother Lode]

Oil Giants Bet Big on a Deepwater Boom

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Giants-Bet-Big-on-a-Deepwater-Boom.html

[Mother Lode]

"Gas Prices Set for a Breakout in 2025"

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Gas-Prices-Set-for-a-Breakout-in-2025.html

[Mother Lode]

"On December 2, 2024, certain subsidiaries of Transocean Ltd., including Transocean Inc., migrated their respective jurisdictions of incorporation to Bermuda, with each migrating subsidiary de-registering from its respective jurisdiction of incorporation and re-registering in Bermuda as a Bermuda exempted company."

Seadrill is HQ in Bermuda

[Mother Lode]

"BP CEO: Global Oil Demand Keeps Exceeding Expectations"

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/BP-CEO-Global-Oil-Demand-Keeps-Exceeding-Expectations.html

[Mother Lode]

"Transocean Ltd. (RIG): Analysts Are Bullish On This Oil and Gas Stock Now"

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/transocean-ltd-rig-analysts-are-bullish-on-this-oil-and-gas-stock-now-1396474/

[Mother Lode]

Goldman Sachs Expects Brent Oil to Average $76 Per Barrel in 2025

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sachs-Expects-Brent-Oil-to-Average-76-Per-Barrel-in-2025.html

[Mother Lode]

"Offshore Deepwater Drilling To Dominate Oil in 2020s
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Offshore-Deepwater-Drilling-To-Dominate-Oil-in-2020s.html

[Mother Lode]

"Equinor Expects Tight Winter Natural Gas Market in Europe"

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Equinor-Expects-Tight-Winter-Natural-Gas-Market-in-Europe.html

[Prudent Capitalist]

Everything Oil is looking up. That is an interesting article you linked that points out how bad things were back in the 2014 - 2016 time for offshore drillers like RIG and everything across the board. Even the pipelines, e.g. KMI and ET are returning to their much higher trading ranges of 8-10 years ago. Great time to be invested in the Oil industry

[Mother Lode]

"Growing Backlog For Offshore Drillers Points To Coming Boom"

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Growing-Backlog-For-Offshore-Drillers-Points-To-Coming-Boom.html

[Mother Lode]

"Deepwater Discoveries Set to Reshape Africa's Energy Landscape"

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Deepwater-Discoveries-Set-to-Reshape-Africas-Energy-Landscape.html

[Mother Lode]

Starting to look promising:

"The firm period now runs through August of 2026 and with the remaining options, the rig is expected to remain in Australia through at least October of 2026. As I mentioned, the Transocean fleet is now solidly booked for the vast majority of 2025 and well into 2026. In fact, based on today's backlog, our active fleet utilization for 2025 exceeds 97% and remains at roughly 86% through the first half of 2026. Through our 23 fixtures awarded so far this year, we have steadily eliminated utilization concerns through next year, successfully avoiding the so-called white space issues that most of our competitors have discussed over the past several months."


"The result of this is that in the medium term, we have the only marketable assets in this sought-after class. As we discussed in previous calls, hook-load is important to customers as it characterizes the rig's capability to run longer and heavier casing strings. This capability permits our customers to optimize their well designs, thereby reducing the number of days required to drill their wells, and if reservoir performance dynamics allow, facilitate greater well productivity due to the preservation of the wellbore diameter. As evidenced by our $1.3 billion in recent contract awards, our now $9.3 billion in total backlog, which, by the way represents a 7.5% sequential increase from our July 2024 Fleet Status Report and our 2025 contract coverage relative to our peer group, our portfolio of high specification, ultra-deepwater and harsh environment rigs, all else being equal, seems to be clearly preferred by our customers, leading to higher full cycle utilization and enabling us to fix industry leading day rates."


"And as you might expect, we are actively engaged in direct negotiations with customers for work that would commence an immediate continuation of their current contracts. In Africa and the Mediterranean, we currently expect between 10 and 15 programs, an average duration of about 12 months to commence in 2026. This demand is driven by development programs in Nigeria, Angola, Ivory Coast, and Ghana. Each of these opportunities also have associated long-term options.

Moving into 2027, we believe more units may be required in the region as programs in Mozambique and Namibia are expected to commence."

[Mother Lode]

"Transocean Ltd (RIG) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strong ..."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/transocean-ltd-rig-q3-2024-070902433.html

Q & A Highlights

Q: What are your expectations on the trajectory of day rates for next year, considering the utilization headwinds faced by your peers?

A: Roddie Mackenzie, EVP & Chief Commercial Officer, explained that Transocean's average fixture for their 1,400-tonne class and above in 2024 has been around 520, firmly in the 500s. He noted that while there might be soft spots, many programs run longer than expected, and direct negotiations often occur. Jeremy Thigpen, CEO, added that Transocean's 1,250-tonne rigs are on longer-term contracts, and the 1,400-tonne and 1,700-tonne rigs have consistently secured contracts at premium day rates, even during downturns.

[Mother Lode]

looks like they have finally turned the corner.
Top and bottom-line beat

Transocean (RIG) reported break-even quarterly earnings per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.04. This compares to loss of $0.36 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 100%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this offshore oil and gas drilling contractor would post a loss of $0.08 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.15, delivering a surprise of -87.50%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.

Transocean , which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Drilling industry, posted revenues of $948 million for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.26%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $721 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates just once over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Transocean shares have lost about 38.3% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 22.3%.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/transocean-rig-reports-break-even-220511254.html

Conference call today at 9:00 AM

[Mother Lode]

China Plans to Export 12.4% Less Fuel in November

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Plans-to-Export-124-Less-Fuel-in-November.html

[Mother Lode]

2 issues the top and bottom line for rig this quarter and next. Also, the election, depending on who is President production from Iran, Venezuela and Russia could be significantly reduce and supplemented by US. The breakeven point is important

[eastunder]

This author needs to correct his headline

Jim Cramer Says ‘Transocean Ltd. (RIG) Went Bankrupt But The Stock Rebounded Dramatically From Those Lows’
Sun, October 27, 2024 at 1:48 AM MDT 6 min read

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jim-cramer-says-transocean-ltd-074818275.html

Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG) was recently discussed by Jim Cramer during his episode of Mad Money. Here’s what he had to say about the company:

“We hardly ever talk about the smaller offshore operators like Transocean, symbol RIG, I always love that… Transocean has lost money for the past 7 years. Its stock has plunged from $30 a decade ago to just below $4… in 2020 when oil prices collapsed at the beginning of the pandemic. Every major offshore driller except for Transocean went bankrupt but the stock rebounded dramatically from those lows before peaking at eight bucks and changed in the summer of last year. Since then it's pulled back along with energy prices.”

Cramer highlighted the company’s two impressive eighth-generation drillships that are operational in the Gulf of Mexico. He called them “technological marvels”. Cramer went on to say:

“Second, Transocean’s in the news. Last night, Bloomberg reported that the company's exploring a merger with smaller rival, Seadrill. I don't really have much of an opinion on the potential deal but it signifies more confidence in the offshore space than I've seen in over a decade. By the way, of course, the industry needs consolidation. Honestly, this group has been so bad for so long that it's tough to recommend them here but if you strongly believe that the price of oil’s headed higher next year or the year after then Transocean is a winner. Personally, though, I don't want to bet on that.”

Transocean (NYSE:RIG) offers offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells globally, operating a fleet of mobile offshore drilling units, including ultra-deepwater and harsh environment floaters. The company provides rigs, equipment, and crews to integrated and independent energy companies, as well as government-owned energy companies.

On October 23, Bloomberg reported that Transocean (NYSE:RIG) has been engaged in discussions regarding a potential merger with rival offshore drilling contractor Seadrill Ltd. As oil explorers increasingly turn to offshore resources, these talks come at a time when the industry is experiencing renewed activity. Although conversations are ongoing about the possible structure of this merger, no final decision has been reached, and both companies may choose to continue operating independently.

[eastunder]

Most probably did. I didn't until you mentioned it.

Now I have it in print on the board so I can find it again if I want to.

So, Thanks!

[Mother Lode]

My interpretation of the status report is (and i may be wrong) that the higher rates are attributable to the newer or more recent contracts, which bodes well for 2025. As older (lower dayrate) ones are completed, and newer ones are started at higher day rates

I guess for me the current issue is what p/brl constitutes the breakeven point for the guys selling the crude given the higher day rates

[Mother Lode]

I kind of assumed everyone saw them

[eastunder]

Transocean Ltd. Provides Quarterly Fleet Status Report
October 24 2024 - 5:49PM

Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) today issued a quarterly Fleet Status Report that provides the current status of, and contract information for, the company’s fleet of offshore drilling rigs.

This quarter’s report includes the following updates:

Deepwater Atlas – Awarded a 365-day contract in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico at a dayrate of $635,000.
Deepwater Conqueror – Awarded a 365-day contract in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico at a dayrate of $530,000.
Deepwater Invictus – Awarded a 1095-day contract in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico at a dayrate of $485,000.
Deepwater Invictus – Awarded two one-well contract extensions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.
Dhirubhai Deepwater KG1 – Awarded a six-well contract in India at a dayrate of $410,000.
Transocean Spitsbergen – Customer exercised a three-well option in Norway at a dayrate of $483,000.
Transocean Endurance – Customer exercised a one-well option in Australia at a dayrate of $390,000.
Transocean Endurance – Customer exercised a five-well option in Australia at a dayrate of $390,000.
The aggregate incremental backlog associated with these fixtures is approximately $1.3 billion. As of October 24, 2024, the company’s total backlog is approximately $9.3 billion.

The report can be accessed on the company’s website: www.deepwater.com.

[eastunder]

I wondered what you thought about that. You always keep up on that so well.

I'll post it.

[Mother Lode]

Day rates look good. I guess we shall see (10/30) what affect it has had on the bottom line

[benchman]

Yes, I remember that. I was worried about that too. Thanks on the SDRL info, I didn't know that.

[eastunder]

There's always that possibility, I suppose.

It seems like it was more likely back then when it happened to many. The whole sector and industries were struggling.

I remember I was worried about RIG filing BK. It never did.

On an interesting note: SDRL has filed twice.

[benchman]

Yeah, that worries me. I went through something like this with Ensco (ESV). Lost everything on that one. They bought another driller, and their stock price tanked. It ended up being a bad merger and they eventually filed for bankruptcy

[eastunder]

Or is it the other way around?

RIG dropped yesterday. SDRL went up.

[eastunder]

Transocean-Seadrill merger would be 'logical deal at logical time,' Citi says

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/transocean-seadrill-merger-would-be-logical-deal-at-logical-time-citi-says/ar-AA1sRZyf?ocid=BingNewsSerp

Seadrill (NYSE:SDRL) +9.5% in Thursday's trading following Bloomberg's report late yesterday that it is in merger talks with larger offshore driller Transocean (RIG), a deal Citi analysts think has a reasonably high probability of occurring.

Transocean (RIG) currently owns 24 active deepwater rigs and Seadrill (SDRL) has 11 active deepwater rigs, so a combination of the two companies would create the largest offshore operator.

Given that Transocean (RIG) is the only public offshore rig company to not go bankrupt in the last cycle and thus has loads of legacy debt, Citi analysts believe a merger would be a deleveraging event for Transocean and likely put the combined company on a much stronger financial footing.

Citi thinks Transocean (RIG) needs to take advantage of its premium valuation to purchase cash flow and accelerate its deleveraging, and Seadrill (SDRL) would seem a good fit given that its fleet mix of modern deepwater rigs fits with Transocean while scale is sufficiently large to reduce RIG's leverage by nearly 30% on 2025 estimates; while dayrates currently are healthy, there's concern over crude prices next year, suggesting now may be a good time for a deal, Citi says.

If the merger ultimately happens, Citi says it would expect Seadrill (SDRL) shares to be worth ~$55 while remaining accretive to Transocean (RIG) shares.

[benchman]

Would SDRL buyout RIG?

[eastunder]

RIG reports 10/30 After Hours
SDRL reports 11/12 After hours

Maybe we will hear something before then or during a teleconference.

[eastunder]

Transocean and Seadrill in Merger Talks as Offshore Oil and Gas Rebounds
By Irina Slav - Oct 24, 2024, 2:40 AM CDT

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Transocean-and-Seadrill-in-Merger-Talks-as-Offshore-Oil-and-Gas-Rebounds.html

Transocean and Seadrill are discussing a merger to capitalize on a rebound in offshore oil and gas investment, Bloomberg has reported, citing unnamed sources in the know.

A deal is far from certain, the report noted, as the companies currently discuss the structure of a potential tie-up.

Offshore oil and gas exploration has been growing at a steady pace in recent years, with virtually all major new discoveries made offshore. All of Guyana’s crude oil, for instance, comes from one offshore block; TotalEnergies recently signed off on a $10.5-billion offshore project in Suriname; and Exxon is mulling over a $10-billion offshore project in Nigeria.

New discoveries have also been made in the Gulf of Mexico and Namibia, brightening the outlook for offshore exploration and production, and driving a jump in investment in the industry segment.

Rystad Energy reported earlier this month that deepwater exploration investment was exceeding investment in shale oil, and with good reason. The Norwegian research firm noted that the amount of oil recovered per foot drilled in the shale patch was on the decline, shedding 15% between 2020 and 2023. Offshore recovery rates, however, are more stable, and deepwater fields offer bonus advantages, such as lower costs, greater resource potential, and longer productive lives of the assets.

Transocean and Seadrill, meanwhile, have seen their shares decline quite substantially this year. Transocean’s stock has shed 35% since January, while Seadrill’s shares have declined by 26% amid the downturn that preceded the current rebound in the offshore exploration industry.

The stock trend is probably about to change, especially if the two position themselves in such as way as to take maximum advantage of industry trends. It shouldn’t be too hard to do given that these are two of the biggest offshore drilling companies globally. A tie-up could secure that advantageous position for both.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

[Mother Lode]

I heard about this yesterday on CNBC while waiting for TSLA results. I checked the after-market trading and SDRL was up a couple of bucks, but RIG was up 20 cents. I don't know what is going on here. If SDRL has xs capacity it may be able to chip away at RIG's backlog. Who knows?

[Mother Lode]

Ya, going well for SDRL currently up 3+. Don't know what to make of this unless RIG is the one acquiring SDRL. I guess we will have to wait to see if this is true and what the details are

[eastunder]

Well - that's going over well.

Guess the crowd doesn't like SDRL? Doesn't believe the rumor? Doesn't think there is validity to the article?

I hate seeing Transocean going down day after day but personally, I would hate to see them sell out to SDRL.

[Mother Lode]

"Offshore drillers Transocean, Seadrill discussing merger - Bloomberg"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/offshore-drillers-transocean-seadrill-discussing-merger-bloomberg/ar-AA1sNVti?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds

[Mother Lode]

"Deepwater Investments Outpacing Shale"

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Deepwater-Investments-Outpacing-Shale.html

[Mother Lode]

STEINHAUSEN, Switzerland, Oct. 17, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) (“Transocean”) today announced a one-year contract for the Deepwater Conqueror with an undisclosed operator in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The contract is expected to commence in October 2025 and contribute approximately $193 million in backlog, including additional services.

[Mother Lode]

"Is The West Prepared To Deal With Potential Iranian Sabotage Of The Oil Market?"

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Is-The-West-To-Deal-With-Potential-Iranian-Sabotage-Of-The-Oil-Market.html

[Hawkeye_tt]

This continues to be a Swing trade for me.
Play what the charts give you.
Hawk