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Silver Continues to Show Erratic Behavior
By: Christopher Lewis | May 31, 2024
• Silver continues to be very noisy on Friday, as the market is trying to build up enough pressure to finally break even higher. At this point in time, the $30 level is a floor in the market.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has been very noisy during the trading session on Friday as we continue to just go back and forth and look for some type of momentum. As we continue to chop back and forth the only thing that really seems to be certain is that you cannot be a seller of the market.
All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to try to find its footing and break out to the upside. And we’ll also pay close attention to the $30 level as a major floor in the market. After all, it is a large round psychologically significant figure and an area that had previously seen a lot of selling pressure at. So, with that being the case, I think you have to look at this through the prism of whether or not you can find any real footing underneath and continue to go higher. I do think given enough time, that’s exactly what happens.
But ultimately, I think short-term traders will probably continue to take precedence here. This is a market that quite frankly, has to work off a lot of froth and that’s exactly what’s going on. So you have to be cautious. You have to keep your position size reasonable. And therefore, you have to look at this through the prism of buying little bits and pieces every time they drop, but not necessarily getting too big. Because the one thing about silver is it can turn around in the blink of an eye and cause massive amounts of damage to your account. That being said, I do think it goes higher over the longer term.
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seems like banksters all got the memo sell every single pop and crush it..
its been a silver screwjob for me.. buy the way down sell the way up buy the way down.. these short selling banksters will never cover ever until there is no u.s. dollar system and then they still wont cover.. the whole thing is baseless paper anyway.. they prob shorted 50 billion worth and aint never covering. they just wait for people to buy it up so they can sell it down again..
Silver $SLV - Taking the C-Wave of a lrgr A-B-C script I warned of by the looks of it...
By: Sahara | May 31, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Latest
Taking the C-Wave of a lrgr A-B-C script I warned of by the looks of it...
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Where are we going? $50 coming this time?
Silver $SLV - Popped that Bull 'Pennant' and tripped all its targets
By: Sahara | May 28, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Popped that Bull 'Pennant' and tripped all its targets.
Looking for a (1)-(2) now. Tho aware of a C-Wave of a lrgr A-B-C.
Commercial shorts from Last Tuesdays COT Report giving up all their gains...
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Silver Bullish Reversal Targets New Trend Highs
By: Bruce Powers | May 27, 2024
• Silver breaks above Friday’s high, showing bullish strength after a 38.2% retracement, targeting further gains.
Silver triggers a strong bullish reversal as it breaks above Friday’s high of 30.62 and rallies sharply. It is on track to close strong, in the upper quarter of the day’s price range. Last week’s swing low of 30.05 completed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement following a 24.9% rally to a trend high of 32.52 reached a week ago. Such a strong bullish reaction following a relatively shallow 38.2% retracement is bullish and a sign of underlying strength. Further, today’s advance has silver rapidly heading towards the 32.52 high as it attempts to rise above it and trigger a bullish trend continuation signal.
Recent Resistance Seen at Top of Trend Channel
Notice that last week’s high found resistance around the top rising trend channel line and the confluence of several Fibonacci price levels. This means that the top channel line should be considered as possible resistance as we move forward in time. It also means that the Fibonacci zone from 32.13 to 32.36 establishes a formidable price zone that could continue to act as resistance. Moreover, a decisive upside breakout above that price zone should lead to silver reaching higher price targets.
Next New Trend High Target of 33.17
Upon a rally to a new trend high silver will first be targeting the 127.2% extended retracement of the recent short pullback at 33.17. That price level is followed by a Fibonacci confluence zone with five targets from 33.78 to 34.06. If the top of the range at 34.06 is exceeded, there are no other targets showing until 34.60.
Long-Term Pattern is Bullish
Whether today begins a new challenge to trend highs or not, silver is well positioned to trend higher over the coming months if not longer. It is following through on a long-term bull flag setup. The declining parallel trend channel that makes up the flag began following a rise of 18.22 points or 156.5% from the March 2020 lows.
That was the low from the initial pandemic selloff. The price target derived from measuring the bull flag on a dollar basis is 41.7. That is a little more than 37% above last week’s close of 30.36. This does not mean that the target will be reached, just that it could be. Subsequent price action and trend price structure will provide additional clues as silver progresses higher.
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Silver Continues to See Upward Pressure
By: Christopher Lewis | May 27, 2024
• The silver market continues to see a lot of upward pressure overall, and the Monday session continued to see this play out. However, it was Memorial Day in the USA, and therefore, liquidity was a bit less than usual.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Despite the fact that the silver market had to deal with liquidity issues on Monday due to the Memorial Day holiday in the United States, it’s obvious that this is a market that wants to go higher. With this, I am a buyer of short-term dips, and it is worth noting that we have broken above the top of the inverted hammer from the previous session and the $30 level underneath I think continues to offer a bit of a floor. With this, I think the market then goes looking to the $32.50 cents level, which could be a potential target. Short-term pullbacks, I think continue to be very noisy and I do think that a lot of people will be interested in it, but keep in mind silver is a very volatile market.
So, you need to be cautious with your position size simply because when silver does fall, it’s very brutal. If we can break out above the recent highs, then I think we could go look into the $50 level. And the reason I say that is that historically speaking, when we break 30 and sustain it, we get to 50. It’s only happened twice that I could find information on, but that’s kind of what we have to go with.
The US government borrowing money the way it has will continue to drive metals higher. Plus, we have the whole green technology aspect of silver that drives prices higher also. Keep in mind that it is much more volatile than gold. So, you’re not playing gold here, you’re playing silver. And it’s got an industrial component that can cause chaos also. So be cautious, but clearly this is a market that wants to go higher.
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Silver Continues to See Support
By: Christopher Lewis | May 24, 2024
• Silver continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as the market will continue to look at the inverse correlation between interest rates and silver pricing in general.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver rallied just a bit during the trading session on Friday as it looks like we are trying to stabilize a bit after that massive sell-off. At this point a lot of this is going to come down to whether or not interest rates are rising or falling and we did see them spike just recently. However, this is a market that continues to see a lot of volatility, and perhaps danger if you are not careful at this point in time.
That being said, the market is likely to continue to see the uptrend come into play because quite frankly, this is a market that is basically momentum driven. At this point, I suspect that a lot of people are going to jump in and try to take advantage of cheap silver as the market has clearly leaped well above the $30 level. With that being the case, I think this is a market that value hunting has reentered and now it looks like the $32 level might be the next target.
The Relative Strength Index is now well below the $70 level, so I think a lot of people will get involved based on that. Underneath, I see the $28.50 level underneath as a major support level. Even if we break down below the $30 level, the 50-day EMA is starting to reach towards the $28.50 level, so that of course is worth paying close attention to as well. In general, this is a market that I think continues to find buyers on dips until something truly changes as far as the fundamentals are concerned.
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Silver $SLV - History in the making...
By: Sahara | May 23, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - History in the making...
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Silver $SLV - Tripped all the targets from that Bull Plot and went onto the Uppr-Parallel
By: Sahara | May 23, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Tripped all the targets from that Bull Plot and went onto the Uppr-Parallel.
Hope is now for a Bull 'Pennant'...
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Seems like most of the PM dealers use kitco, which is looking at major upside from here.
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-05-21/silver-eyes-50-td-securities-predicts-major-breakout-after-31-support-holds
seems with 1 trillion of new debt every few months in the US, industrial global demand, and only 50 million stacking in China......the upside is huge...... and thats without a big crisis like BRICS destroying the $$....
Silver Continues to See Momentum Stall
By: Christopher Lewis | May 21, 2024
• The silver market has been on fire lately, and therefore we are getting into a dangerous situation. The market is overdone, and a lot of people are about to lose a lot of money if we get a sudden drop. (Something silver is notorious for.)
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has been back and forth during the early hours on Tuesday, forming a rather neutral candlestick with long legs yet again. At this point in time, I do think silver is due for a pullback, and the reality is that we will probably have a significant pullback sooner or later.
And it might actually be sooner at this point on the Relative Strength index. It looks like we are starting to roll over again, but we are very well ahead of the 70 level, which of course signifies overbought. So, at this point in time, I think we have one of two choices. We either go sideways for a while and work off some of the from, or we get a vicious pullback that shakes out a lot of the hot money.
The retail trader out there is over levered and silver will get smoked sooner or later. I’ve seen this happen a couple of times, especially in this market. So, the one thing that you need to do is make sure that if you get something like a $2 drop, it won’t wipe out your account. Because $2 seems like a lot.
The reality is we had about $1.70 worth of change from top to bottom. Just the previous session. What happens if we wipe out the $31 level? Well, at that point, I think we drop another dollar pretty quickly and we could even drop down to the $28.50 level, which would not change the overall trend at all. So recognize that you are extremely extended at this point, and although we could go higher from here, the more likely route is either sideways or down, at least in the very short term.
Longer term, we could go as high as $50 because it does seem like every time the market breaks above $30, it does try to make it to $50 and then it gets smashed, including the last time it did it, it went from $50 or just under $50, falling all the way back down to $12. So be careful. Silver is a dangerous animal.
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Silver Hits New High at 32.52, Faces Resistance Zone
By: Bruce Powers | May 20, 2024
• Silver hits 32.52, marking a 25% rise from May's low, but resistance indicates potential for a pullback.
Silver begins the week with a new trend high of 32.52 and it is on track to close strong, in the upper third of Monday’s trading range. At the high silver was up by 6.50 points or 25.0% from the most recent swing low of 26.02 from May 2. Nonetheless, today’s high has put silver in a potential resistance zone that could lead to a pullback if not a larger retracement. An intraday pullback is in place at the time of this writing, but trading remains above the halfway point for the day’s range.
Fibonacci Confluence Marks Resistance from 32.13 to 32. 36
The confluence of Fibonacci price levels from 32.13 to 32.36 marks the current resistance zone. Although today’s high exceeded the top of the range, silver looks like it may close Monday within or below the price range. The previous trend high at 29.80 now marks a possible support area of some significance. Also, the 20-Day line has significance at 28.03. However, there are interim price levels to be aware of.
The first is at 31.46. That is a long-term 50% retracement of the decline that begun from the April 2011 peak at 49.81. It previously represented potential resistance on the way up this week, and now support, if further weakness kicks in. Today’s low is 30.95. If the price of silver falls below that level, a deeper pullback is likely on deck. There is also potential support around the top rising trend channel line. If hit today, it would represent approximately 30.60. A little lower is prior resistance from the February 2021 swing high at 30.14.
Larger Bullish Picture Remains
Silver remains bullish in the bigger picture. Last week it advanced to a new long-term trend high on a move above 30.14. It closed last week at its highest weekly closing price since February 2013. Last week’s advance also triggered the continuation of a large bull flag. The initial advance of the pattern designated the pole for the flag pattern. An initial advance from the pattern (pole) saw a rise of 156.5% in the price of natural gas in a relatively short amount of time.
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$SLV Tape is ACTIVE A lot of further-dated put selling today (Bullish)
By: Cheddar Flow | May 20, 2024
• $SLV Tape is ACTIVE
A lot of further-dated put selling today (Bullish)
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Silver soars to highest price in more than a decade
By: Barchart | May 17, 2024
• JUST IN: Silver soars to highest price in more than a decade.
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Looks like a case of Silver headed to 40 then 50.....
I think possibly by December this year.
If only 50 M Chinese buy only one oz each week..........
There is no significant inventory, and it can only go much higher
Back to a silver gold ratio of maybe 40, eh ???? .
the current debt levels and out of control spending make PMs a big buy....
As the big money gets on board.....it will only go up..
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-05-16/big-shorts-michael-burry-makes-10-million-bet-sprott-physical-gold-trust
$SLV $1.2 Million Unusual Put Sell Order (Bullish)
By: Cheddar Flow | May 17, 2024
• $SLV $1.2M Unusual Put Sell Order (Bullish)
This was sold to open (Vol > OI) and has an unusual amount of contracts
Volume is up significantly on these just from today
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Silver Continues to Squeeze Short Sellers
By: Christopher Lewis | May 17, 2024
• Silver markets have shot straight up in the air again during this past week, as we continue to see a massive, short squeeze in this market.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
Taking a look at the Silver Weekly chart, you can see that we’ve shot straight up in the air during the week, and now it looks like the short squeeze is on. Now the question about these short squeezes will always be the same, and how long can it last?
Well, looking in the past we’ve seen Silver rocket to $50 once it’s cleared $30. But it also tends to correct very viciously at the same time. So, when you do get a pullback, it’s going to be pretty ugly. Because of this, I would implore you to keep your position size reasonable. Sometimes a market just gets so far ahead of you that you just can’t be bothered with it.
It’s not worth it in the long term. Ultimately, I do think that the $30 level could be support. I also recognize that the $28.50 level could be support longer term. You know, we’ve seen the silver market go looking to the $50 level when it breaks through this region. The biggest problem, of course, is going to be that silver markets are based on futures contracts, which are paper contracts.
And for a long time, there’s been an issue with people nakedly shorting an asset that they don’t have. And with more signs than there actually is in the world. Because of this, I do think we have a nice run here, but I also recognize that typically silver will punish traders who start chasing on these wild moves too recklessly. So, by all means, please, if nothing else, be cautious with your position size.
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Someone's looking for $35 silver by December
By: Markets & Mayhem | May 16, 2024
• Someone's looking for $35 silver by December.
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Silver Continues to Stretch
By: Christopher Lewis | May 16, 2024
• The silver market has been back and forth during the session on Thursday, as the market has reached the recent highs yet again. Ultimately, this is a market that has a lot of noise above that could come into the picture.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has been back and forth during the early hours on Thursday as we are most certainly stretched at this point. We have tested the highs that we made a few weeks ago and as a result it looks like we are struggling to break out.
When you look at the relative strength index, we are approaching the overbought condition as well. So, I think at this point in time, a short-term pullback makes a lot of sense. The $28.50 level underneath could be significant support, as it has been an area of interest multiple times in the past. On the other hand, if we do continue to go higher, the $30 level would almost certainly be an area that a lot of traders will pay attention to.
The silver market has a long history of ripping to the upside and then collapsing. That’s why I’m always a bit cautious about trading silver. Silver is not like trading gold. There aren’t as many central bank and interest rate influence portions of the fundamental analysis although they do have a certain amount of influence.
But really silver is kind of its own animal because it is an industrial metal as well. And as of late, it’s more about green technology. Ultimately, I think the green technology probably drives demand higher from the longer term standpoint. But then again, we’ve been talking about a significant undersupply of silver for years now. So, I’m not sure why today would be any different. With that being said, I think this is more or less a buy on the dips market. You just can’t chase this type of move. It’s a really good way to get hurt, actually.
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Silver $SLV - A poke in the eye for those that ridiculed the Bull Pattern. 3rd Target Hit...
By: Sahara | May 15, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - A poke in the eye for those that ridiculed the Bull Pattern.
3rd Target Hit...
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Silver Uptrend Sustained with Bounce off Support
By: Bruce Powers | May 13, 2024
• Silver's price fluctuations show potential for an upside breakout if today's high of 28.39 is surpassed, though a drop below 27.97 would be bearish.
Silver peaked at a high of 28.77 last Friday before ending the day in the red with a bearish candlestick pattern. Sellers again dominated today, Monday, as the price of silver fell below Friday’s low of 28.04. However, support was seen at the day’s low of 27.97, leading to a minor intraday bounce.
Support was seen around the crossing of two rising trendlines, one is short-term representing dynamic support for the advance from the most recent swing low at 26.02. The other covers a longer time frame beginning from the February 28 swing low. The longer line is of greater significance and the shorter line confirms the support level.
Resistance Becomes Support
Dynamic resistance represented by the 20-Day MA and longer uptrend line were exceeded to the upside recently. Once resistance is exceeded price frequently will pullback and test a similar price area as support. If it holds and price is rejected to the upside, the uptrend has provided a new clue that improves the chance for the trend to continue. Today’s bounce off the trendline provides such a clue. However, follow through to the upside is needed, while a drop below today’s low would be short-term bearish.
Rise Above Trendline Showed Strength
Note that silver dropped below the longer uptrend line on April 30 and stayed below it until last Thursday. Today it is on track to end with a narrow range day and successful test of support at the trendline. Therefore, if the uptrend line continues to mark support, silver will be triggering an upside breakout on a move above today’s high of 28.39. If today’s low is broken then the 20-Day MA at 27.48 becomes a target for support, followed by a recent minor swing low at 27.01.
Last week’s high completed a small rising ABCD pattern and it may mark a short-term top. In that case, further consolidation or a deeper pullback becomes more likely. Friday’s weak close puts into question the potential for the current rally to continue with a similar rising slope.
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$SLV $1 Million Call Sell Order. This was sold to open (Vol > OI)
By: Cheddar Flow | May 10, 2024
• $SLV $1M Call Sell Order
This was sold to open (Vol > OI)
Due to the contract size and how far OTM it is, this is most likely a hedge for an existing position
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Silver Continues to Test a Major Ceiling
By: Christopher Lewis | May 10, 2024
• The silver market spent most of the week trying to rally higher, with an eye on the crucial $28.50 level. This is an area that has been like a brick wall multiple times, and therefore I am watching this market closely.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
Silver has slammed into the $28.50 level in an area that has been an important resistance more than once. And I do think that it will be interesting to see whether or not we can get to the $30 level. That’s the real prize here. It’s worth noting when you look to the left on the chart, back in 2020, that we attempted this previously and now we are trying to do everything we can to break out above it. If we were to do so, then the $30 level is the next major barrier that you have to be aware of, which has been very difficult to overcome.
And in fact, I think we’ve only done it twice in about the last 60 years. So, we are definitely getting to the high end of silver and of course, there’s always the usual narrative of this time it’s different. I don’t know if I believe that after all, JP Morgan itself has been busted a few times manipulating the market up at these levels. It’s just the cost of doing business. You pay a few million in fines to make a few billion in gains. So we’ll see.
Ultimately silver is highly influenced by interest rates, geopolitical concerns, and of course, industrial use case scenario, mainly green technologies at this point. We’ll see how this plays out. It certainly looks bullish. I don’t know if I want to step in front of this and start shorting, but we are in an area that has historically been a lot of trouble. And if you aren’t paying attention, you could buy at the top.
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Silver $SLV - Bull 'Flag' Target was hit along with two 'Wedge' targets
By: Sahara | May 10, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Bull 'Flag' Target was hit along with two 'Wedge' targets.
I wonder if the Commercials covered their shorts?...
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Silver $SLV - Climbing that 'Flag' Pole. Approaching the Key $28 Res-Level...
By: Sahara | May 9, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Climbing that 'Flag' Pole.
Approaching the Key $28 Res-Level...
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Silver Poised for Technical Breakout Despite Fed Uncertainty
By: James Hyerczyk | May 9, 2024
Key Points:
• Silver rallies despite rising Treasury yields and a strong dollar.
• Federal Reserve officials hint at steady rates pending inflation clarity.
• Market awaits jobless claims and consumer sentiment data for cues.
Silver Prices Surge Amidst Awaited U.S. Economic Data
Silver prices surged on Thursday as investors eagerly awaited U.S. economic indicators, particularly the weekly jobless claims data, to glean insights into the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cuts. The market’s robust movement positions it for a potential breakout above the near-term high at $27.73. Notably, this rally persists despite the backdrop of increasing Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, factors typically associated with reduced demand for dollar-denominated assets.
At 11:53 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $27.72, up $0.38 or +1.39%.
Market Data and Fed Insights
At 10:38 GMT, the 10-year Treasury yield rose over 2 basis points to 4.506%, while the 2-year Treasury yield climbed by less than 1 basis point to 4.847%. Investors scrutinized comments from Federal Reserve officials, seeking clues on the trajectory of interest rates. Fed policymakers, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, emphasized the likelihood of steady rates until inflation clearly trends towards the Fed’s 2% target range.
Upcoming Economic Indicators
As the market awaits further guidance, attention is drawn to upcoming economic data. The U.S. weekly jobless claims report is scheduled for Thursday, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reading expected on Friday. Additionally, next week’s release of the consumer price index data will be closely monitored for further insights into inflation trends.
Outlook and Market Sentiment
Despite market anticipation of a rate cut in September, silver traders remain cautious, particularly in anticipation of the upcoming U.S. inflation report. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could potentially lead to further price declines. Presently, traders are pricing in a 66% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, a factor influenced by the reduced opportunity cost of holding bullion in a low-interest-rate environment.
Future Prospects
Looking ahead to the remainder of 2024, the outlook for silver remains relatively positive, with potential for another multi-year high. Uncertainties surrounding economic conditions and geopolitical tensions contribute to the favorable sentiment towards silver. Encouragingly, China’s return to growth in both exports and imports in April signals improved demand trends both domestically and internationally, further underpinning the positive outlook for silver.
Technical Analysis
Daily Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver (XAG/USD) is putting on a solid performance on Thursday with the potential for a surge above the minor top at $27.73.
The short-term range is $29.80 to $26.02. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $27.91 to $28.36 the next potential upside target.
The way of least resistance is up with the intermediate uptrend well-supported by the 50-day moving average at $26.16.
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Silver $SLV - Holding over its Wkly 12/MA after the Pattern B/Out...
By: Sahara | May 8, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Holding over its Wkly 12/MA after the Pattern B/Out...
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Silver Price Surges to Six-Day High, Testing Key Resistance Levels
By: Bruce Powers | May 6, 2024
• Silver surged to a six-day high as buyers took back control. Test of key resistance could lead to upside breakout or short-term pullback.
Buyers stepped up to support a rally in silver today as the precious metal reached a six-day high of at least 27.49. It continues to trade near the highs of the day at the time of this writing. The high tested resistance around the uptrend line following a sharp drop below the line last Tuesday.
Further, Monday’s high also completed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 27.46. If silver continues to strengthen, the 20-Day MA is next to be tested as resistance. It is currently at a price of 27.58. There is a little concern about the 20-Day line as it recently turned down slightly.
Sharp Rally Off Strong Support Zone
Today’s sharp rally somewhat mirrors the decline last Tuesday but in the opposite direction. There were three sharp declines from the 29.80 high on April 12, starting with that day. Markets will commonly change a pattern after it has occurred three times. Support last week was seen at a swing low of 26.02. It completed a declining ABCD pattern extended by the 127.2% ratio, and it was prior resistance from the swing high of May 5, 2023.
That swing high was significant as it held as resistance 48 weeks. Further, today’s advance recaptured the 26.14 swing high from March 2022. That was a significant swing high, which retained its position for 108 weeks, until an upside breakout on April 3. It is interesting to note that the number 108 has significance in ancient traditions, nature, and the universe.
20-Day Moving Average is Key Indicator
Given today’s wide range day, some backing and filling within the day’s 26.44 to 27.49 price range may occur before silver is ready to move higher. Nevertheless, it should present a more reliable pattern to consider. Regardless, a decisive rally above today’s high will be a sign of strength. Further still, on a rally above the 20-Day line.
Subsequently, a daily close above the 20-Day line will confirm strength and set the stage for higher prices. Until then, it may act as resistance and lead to a pullback. Note that the most recent internal swing high was at 27.73. That price area can be used along with the 20-Day line as a rise above it is bullish, and more so on a daily close above it.
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Silver $SLV - Stepping back at the bigger picture, we have held the Pop of the 'Handle' & as long as it holds the Mthly 150/MA we are good to go...
By: Sahara | May 3, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Stepping back at the bigger picture, we have held the Pop of the 'Handle' & as long as it holds the Mthly 150/MA we are good to go...
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Silver Continues to Rally on Monday
By: Christopher Lewis | May 6, 2024
• The silver market continues to be strong on Monday, as the base that we have recently been building seems to be holding. With this being said, you need to be cautious about getting to aggressive at this point.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver shot higher during the early hours on Monday as we are slamming into an area of previous consolidation near the $27.30 level. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of support. And we did of course form two hammers in a row right at the 50 day EMA and the crucial $26 area.
The $26 area previously had been massive resistance and the fact that it was held as support makes a lot of sense. So, the 50 day EMA and the $26 level, both offer a bit of a short-term floor. The question now is whether or not we can continue to see upward momentum. And if we can, then I think we could go looking to the $28.50 level, an area that previously has caused a lot of resistance.
In general, I think this is a situation where you continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but I do think that the upside is probably going to continue to be a way to trade this market, at least in the short term. Keep in mind though, that silver is not gold and therefore it doesn’t necessarily always behave the same. After all, we’ve got a situation where silver is also an industrial metal, so that comes down to industrial demand questions as well.
Beyond that, silver has been notoriously manipulated from time to time, especially the closer you get to $30, to the downside, so we’ll have to wait and see how that plays out. With this, I think you’ve got a situation where we continue to buy dips, but we also recognize that this is a market that you will have to be somewhat nimble in. But in general, I think in the short term you are looking more positive than anything else.
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Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver Continues to Look For a Base
By: Christopher Lewis | May 3, 2024
• The silver market has fallen a bit during the week, as we continue to pay close attention to the $26 level, an area that has been important multiple times in the past.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
And you can see that we spent most of the week falling. At this point, we are testing the $26 level, a large, round, psychologically significant figure that has been important multiple times. The $26 level is an area that was previously the top of a major resistance barrier.
But at this point, if we break down below $26, this will just simply be the latest throw over. Alternatively, if we turn around and rally from here, we could see a rather significant move to the upside in silver. Perhaps trying to get back to the crucial $28.50 level. The $28.50 level, of course, is an area that’s been important multiple times going back, so it should not be a huge surprise to see that we have pulled back from there.
That being said, keep in mind silver is not gold and therefore it reacts a little bit differently to a lot of the crosscurrents that currently cause havoc in the markets. Interest rates, of course, have a major influence, but there’s also industrial demand, as silver is considered to be a fairly important industrial metal. Geopolitics can come into play, but silver is basically playing little brother to gold in that argument as well. It’s not really a safety asset, it’s more or less a highly speculative one and therefore much more volatile. Because of this, position sizing is paramount in general, and therefore we have to look at this through a lens of caution more than anything else.
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Silver Continues to Consolidate After Big Drop
By: Christopher Lewis | April 29, 2024
• The silver market continues to consolidate in the early hours of Monday, as we are trying to get our “sea legs” after the recent sell off in this volatile market.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
You can see silver has been back and forth there in the early hours on Monday, as we continued to sort out whether or not we are going to go higher from here or if we are going to break down. I think this is a very interesting time for silver, due to the fact that we have seen quite a bit of selling pressure, followed by the market just simply sitting sideways.
If we do fall from here, then I think it would make a certain amount of sense that we could go down to the $26 level. An area that’s been important multiple times, and of course, also features the 50 day EMA right now. So, I think all of that combines for a nice floor. The question now is whether or not we can find enough buyers to take off from here, or if we need to pull back and offer a bit of value.
Keep in mind that silver will follow gold to a point, but at the end of the day, silver is not gold, it is also an industrial metal. So, there are some other factors involved here, but ultimately, I think you’ve got a real shot at an attempt to go higher either here or down at the aforementioned $26 level. If we can take out the highs of the Friday session, then I think that’s when we figure out that the momentum is to the upside.
And we could go looking to the $28.50 level, which previously had been massive resistance. Regardless, you need to be very cautious with the idea of being overleveraged in this market. Silver can really do damage to your account if you are too big in it.
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Silver $SLV - As you know I was looking for a Daily 'Doji' Candle Yesterday. But ended with a 'Hammer' Just as good if not better
By: Sahara | April 24, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Latest
As you know I was looking for a Daily 'Doji' Candle Yesterday. But ended with a 'Hammer' Just as good if not better.
Right back to the 20/MA and back inside the Bull 'Pennant' to boot. See if it holds & recovers its 12/MA...
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Silver $SLV - I am looking for a 'Doji' Candle on the Daily today as it is also at its 20/MA which could give us a low of sorts
By: Sahara | April 23, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Latest
I knew there would be some hesitation up here as mentioned prior.
I am looking for a 'Doji' Candle on the Daily today as it is also at its 20/MA which could give us a low of sorts. Or else it will head to the B/Out Band, and then head out to the targets...
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Silver Continues to Look Volatile
By: Christopher Lewis | April 23, 2024
• The silver market has fallen a bit during the session on Tuesday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior in this environment.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has plunged during the early hours on Tuesday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. That being said, it’s probably worth noting that silver is, of course, a highly manipulated market. Several banks in the past have been fined and charged with doing exactly that and as a result you do have to be very cautious when it gets too expensive. The area between $28.50 and $30 of course is an area that has previously caused a lot of headaches and therefore it doesn’t surprise me at all to see that we have fallen the way we have.
The question now of course is going to be, Can we hang on to $26? If $26 holds out support right along with the 50 day EMA, then you have the real possibility of the market bouncing and offering a trade. That being said, I would think of it as a trade and not necessarily something I want to be invested in. After all, the market is extraordinarily volatile. And again, that $28.50 level has been a major resistance barrier multiple times in the past, so that’s an area that will attract a lot of sellers.
So, with that, I think I’m still going to be in a phase where I am simply observing and waiting to see whether or not we get the balance that I need or the stabilization. Underneath $26 I might even begin to sell silver. However, we would also have to pay attention to interest rates, the US Dollar, and of course, gold markets.
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Silver Bearish Weekly Reversal Triggers Sharp Decline
By: Bruce Powers | April 22, 2024
• Silver's weekly chart sees a bearish reversal, targeting initial support near 27.06 to 26.79, with further downside potential towards 26.21 to 25.87.
Silver triggered a bearish reversal on its weekly chart on Monday with a decisive drop below 27.59. Selling picked up during the drop with silver continuing to trade near the lows of the day at the time of this writing. The first key target around the 20-Day MA at 27.06 has almost been reached. It ties to the March 2022 swing high at 26.95. Moreover, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at 26.79 and a falling ABCD pattern (marked on chart) completes at the same price. Together, these initial downside targets can be watched as a potential support zone from 27.06 to 26.79.
Only First Day of Retracement
Given the recent 33.8% rally in silver, from the February 28 swing low to the 29.80 peak, and today’s weekly reversal followed by a sharp decline, it wouldn’t be surprising to see further downside or consolidation in the precious metals before a correction is complete.
If the 26.79 price level is broken to the downside the next likely target is a price zone from around 26.21 to 26.14. Further down is the third lower target zone identified from 25.91 to 25.87. In each case, the price zone includes a previous swing high where resistance was seen in the past and we may now see support. Also, there is a Fibonacci target level around each of the swing highs.
Large Bull Flag is Dominant Pattern
During the recent advance the outlook for silver took a big bullish step forward. The 26.14 swing high from May was exceeded to the upside thereby triggering a continuation of the rising trend that started from the September 2022 swing low. Further, a rally through March 2022 swing high of 26.95 further confirmed a bullish reversal of the declining trend channel that began from the February 2021 trend high. That is two significant long-term price levels that were busted. The behavior suggests that demand for silver is improving and therefore the long-term bullish outlook.
When considering the March 2020 swing low of 11.64 to be the beginning of the current uptrend, the potential for an aggressive rally in silver, following the current retracement, becomes apparent. Notice that prior to the pullback from February 2021, silver had risen by 18.22 points or 156.5% in only 20 weeks. The long-term pattern takes the form of a bullish flag, and an upside breakout is still in its infancy.
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Silver on track for its biggest decline since December 4
By: Barchart | April 22, 2024
• Silver on track for its biggest decline since December 4.
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Silver's industrial use in green energy could see it soaring in price like gold
By: Yahoo Finance | April 17, 2024
• Gold has been hitting record highs — why there's a bullish case for silver too.
Gold’s (GC=F) recent breakout to record highs has investors optimistic about silver (SI=F) as well.
The commodity often referred to as gold's "little brother" has been hovering above $28 an ounce, up roughly 23% over the past two months, versus a 19% rise for the yellow precious metal during the same period.
“The typical pattern for silver is — gold is the leader. [It] breaks out first, and then within a few months silver kind of takes charge and slingshots by. We’re starting to see that,” Sprott Asset Management CEO John Ciampaglia told Yahoo Finance this week.
The bulls aren't just following price trends. They're also looking at demand, specifically silver's growing industrial use in the green energy transition.
“We see very strong buying coming from India for silver, as well as steady consumption of silver for the use of solar panels, which is being built out at record amounts around the world right now,” Ciampaglia said.
The use of silver in industrial applications hit a new high in 2023 for a third consecutive year, according to data released on Wednesday by the Silver Institute, an industry nonprofit.
“Ongoing structural gains from green economy applications underpinned these advances,” said the report, citing higher-than-expected capacity and adoption for solar panels.
The Silver Institute expects the metal's supply to decrease by 1% this year, resulting in the second-largest market deficit in more than 20 years. The industry group also expects demand to expand beyond the energy transition in coming years.
“For example, silver will become an indispensable material as artificial intelligence (AI) rises. End uses expected to incorporate silver in AI include transportation, nanotechnology, biotechnology, healthcare, consumer wearables, computing, and energy in data centers,” said the report.
Silver last closed at a record high just above $48 per ounce in April 2011.
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Silver has followed gold's lead and shot higher in recent weeks
By: Markets & Mayhem | April 17, 2024
• Silver has followed gold's lead and shot higher in recent weeks.
@jaykaeppel’s analysis explores several seasonality and sentiment indicators that are currently flashing yellow.
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Silver Continues to Grind Back And Forth at High Levels
By: Christopher Lewis | April 17, 2024
• The silver market has gone back and forth during the Wednesday session, as we continue to see a lot of froth being worked off in this market.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver rallied a little bit during the trading session here on Wednesday, as we continue to consolidate around the crucial $28.50 level. This is an area that has been important multiple times, and therefore it does make a certain amount of sense that the market will remember that there are a lot of orders here between here and $30.
I do think there’s a lot of noise, and therefore it’s difficult for silver to continue to go higher. The $28 level underneath is an area that has seen a little bit of short term support, and I think you will have to pay close attention to that. But if we break down below there, then it’s likely that we will go down to the $26 level.
The $26 level also features the 50 day EMA racing toward it and therefore I do think there’s a significant amount of support. The RSI has dropped below the 70 level, so that’s a good sign. But right now, I think silver still has quite a bit to do before it can go higher. And it’s worth noting that the $30 level has been a major level going back decades.
So, with that being the case, I do think it’s going to be very difficult to continue going higher. And I prefer to buy silver on some type of dip if I get the opportunity, especially if it would be closer to the $26 level. If we get back to that level and bounce, I suspect there will be massive buying as it will be a classic technical bounce and continuation signal.
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$SILVER / #Inflation $USCPI - At the 'Flag' Breakout...
By: Sahara | April 17, 2024
• $SILVER / #Inflation $USCPI - At the 'Flag' Breakout...
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A Brief History of The Health Support Uses of SilverFor thousands of years silver has been used as a healing agent by civilizations throughout the world. Its medical, preservative and restorative powers can be traced as far back as the ancient Greek and Roman Empires. Long before the development of modern pharmaceuticals, silver was employed as a germicide. Consider these interesting facts:
Silver Re-DiscoveredNot until the late 1800's did western scientists re-discover what had been known for thousands of years - that silver is a powerful germ fighter. Medicinal silver compounds were then developed and silver became commonly used as a medicine. By the early part of the 1900s, the use of silver was becoming widespread. By 1940 there were approximately four dozen different silver compounds on the market. Although there were a few flare-ups of negative publicity regarding medicinal silver in the early 1900s, (due to the overuse of certain types of protein-bound silver compounds causing a discoloration of the skin called argyria and due to a supply of improperly prepared and unstable silver) reputable medical journal reports demonstrated that a properly prepared colloidal dispersion of silver was completely suitable with no adverse side effects. T. H. Anderson Wells reported in the Lancet (February 16th, 1918) that a preparation of colloidal silver was "used intravenously. . . without any irritation of the kidneys and with no pigmentation of the skin. " New knowledge of body chemistry gave rise to the enormous array of applications for colloidal disinfectants and medicines and for on-going research into the capabilities and possibilities for silver colloids. However, Silver's "new-found" fame as a superior infection-fighting agent was short lived. How Silver Lost FavorDuring the 1930s, synthetically manufactured drugs began to make their appearance and the profits, together with the simplicities of manufacturing this new source of treatment, became a powerful force in the marketplace. There was much excitement over the new 'wonder drugs' and at that time, no antibiotic-resistant strains of disease organisms had surfaced. Silver quickly lost its status to modern antibiotics. On-going Uses of Colloidal SilverThe use of some silver preparations in mainstream medicine survived. Among them are the use of dilute silver nitrate in newborn babies' eyes to protect from infection and the use of "Silvadine," a silver based salve, in virtually every burn ward in America to kill infection. A new silver based bandage has recently been approved by the FDA and licensed for sale. Other uses that did not lose favor include:
But for the most part, with the discovery of pharmaceutical antibiotics, interest in silver as an anti-microbial agent declined almost to the point of extinction. The Resurgence of Silver in MedicineThe return of silver to conventional medicine began in the 1970s. The late Dr. Carl Moyer, chairman of Washington University's Department of Surgery, received a grant to develop better methods of treatment for burn victims. Dr. Margraf, as the chief biochemist, worked with Dr. Moyer and other surgeons to find an antiseptic strong enough, yet safe to use over large areas of the body. Dr. Margraf investigated 22 antiseptic compounds and found drawbacks in all of them. Reviewing earlier medical literature, Dr. Margraf found continual references to the use of silver. However, since concentrated silver nitrate is both corrosive and painful, he diluted the silver to a .5 percent solution and found that it killed invasive burn bacteria and permitted wounds to heal. Importantly, resistant strains did not appear. But, silver nitrate was far from ideal. So research continued for more suitable silver preparations. Silver sulphadiazine (Silvadene, Marion Laboratories) is now used in 70 percent of burn centers in America. Discovered by Dr. Charles Fox of Columbia University, sulphadiazine has also been successful in treating cholera, malaria and syphilis. It also stops the herpes virus, which is responsible for cold sores, shingles and worse. The history and uses of colloidal silver are well known and documented. They can be researched easily on the Internet through search engines and any colloid forum, bulletin boards or blogs. We cannot link to them or publish them here because Federal Law prohibits any claims or testimonials associating our products or product ingredients with any disease states. Keep in mind that the particle surface area of our colloidal silver product, MesoSilver, is the highest ever tested. This means it is the most effective of any colloidal silver product ever made. With not a single serious adverse event ever reported, it is also one of the safest supplements on the market today.
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The Silver Price Will Rise 4.83 Times as Far as Gold Pricehttp://goldprice.org/silver-and-gold-prices/2008/12/silver-price-will-rise-483-times-as-far.html Unless you understand this one principle, you understand nought about precious metals' bull markets: monetary demand, and monetary demand alone, drives both gold AND silver. It's not Indian wedding demand or the popularity of silver jewelry that drives their prices, but sheer monetary demand, holding them as "money" because the alternatives -- national currencies -- are clearly failing. WHEREFORE, before this bull market ends, you will need only 16 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold, which means from here that the silver price will rise 4.83 times as far as the gold price. Forget the siren song of the "gold-only" bugs, who have fallen for the myths of the money interest: both silver and gold are money, and always will be. GOLD ENTERING A VIRTUOUS CIRCLESeptember 3rd, 2010 by Egon von Greyerz GOLD ENTERING A VIRTUOUS CIRCLEFundamental and technical factors for gold are now in total harmony and gold is entering a virtuous circle that will drive the price up at its fastest pace since this bull market started in 1999.
Gold trendWe expect gold to start a substantial rise now which will continue for 5-10 months before any major correction. Gold's technical picture is extremely strong with a continuous rising pattern of higher highs and higher lows with the steepness of the curve increasing. From much higher levels we are likely to see a correction that could last up to a year before the next rise which will last several years before we see a significant peak. Once gold has topped we do not expect the same kind of decline as after the 1980 peak since gold is likely to become part of a future reserve currency. At that point gold will be a solid but unexciting investment with very little upside potential. But that is likely to be a few years away. In spite of a 5 times increase in the value of gold or an 80% decline against many currencies and stockmarkets in the last 11 years, most investors own no gold and still do not understand the importance and value of gold. In a world of constant money printing and credit creation leading to devaluing currencies and devaluing assets, gold reflects stability and is virtually the only store of value that cannot be destroyed by governments. The average asset manager, fund manager, pension fund or private individual owns no physical gold and at best has a very small exposure to some precious metals stocks. And in spite of this gold has gone up over 400% in 11 years. How is that possible? For the simple reason with the relatively modest demand that we have seen in the last few years, there is not enough physical gold even at these levels. The increase in demand that we have seen has most probably been satisfied by central banks leasing or lending their gold to the bullion banks. Central banks supposedly own 30,000 tons of gold but unofficial estimates of their real holdings are at 15,000 tons or less. So what are the factors that are likely to lead to a major rise in the gold price? We have for several years outlined in our Newsletters the problems in the world that inevitably will lead to massive money printing and a hyperinflationary depression (see for example "Alea Iacta Est" and "There Will Be No Double Dip…" on the Matterhorn Asset Management website). There are three insurmountable problems:
The effect of this massive $20 trillion infusion has been ephemeral since we are entering the autumn of 2010 with virtually every single economic indicator and statistic in the US deteriorating rapidly. With interest rates already at zero there is no ammunition left but one. And it is this specific last bullet that will be used to infinity in the next few years and starting very soon, namely UNLIMITED MONEY PRINTING. Every single area of the US economy will need support or printed money, whether it is the federal government, the states, the municipalities, banks, pension funds, insurance companies, the unemployed, corporations, health care, housing market, commercial real estate, individuals, etc, etc, etc. The list is endless and many other countries will follow. Before we talk about gold in hyperinflationary terms, let's look at where gold is likely to reach in today's money. Three realistic Gold targets: $6,000 - $7,000 - $10,000:
The three historical comparisons above (and see chart below) would put gold anywhere from $6,000 to $10,000 and this is without inflation, or more likely hyperinflation. In a hyperinflationary environment, the price gold will go to is really irrelevant since it depends on how much money is printed. In the Weimar Republic for example gold went to DM 100 trillion. What is more important is that gold is likely to go up at least 5 times from today without inflation and with hyperinflation gold will protect investors against the total destruction of paper money and many other assets. Wealth ProtectionGold must only be held in its physical form and the holder of gold must have direct access to the gold. We consider ETFs, gold in a bank (whether allocated or unallocated), fractal ownership of physical gold, futures or any other form of paper gold as very risky and a totally unsatisfactory method for owning gold. Physical gold should preferably be stored outside your country of residence and outside the banking system. The holder must have direct access to the vaults where the gold is stored. SilverSilver has been lagging gold since its peak at over $21 in 2008. For the last few months the gold/silver ratio has been consolidating between 58 and 71. The ratio is currently around 64 and is likely to start a move down to new lows below the 2006 low at just 44. So this is very good news for silver which is likely to outpace gold substantially in the next few years. Silver is probably the most undervalued precious metal today and has great potential. But there are many caveats for silver:
StockmarketsAt the beginning of July this year we sent out a message to investors that, based on our proprietary indicators, we expected stockmarkets to finish the correction up at the end of July and resume the major downtrend in August. We also said that gold would start its major rise in August. And this is exactly what has happened so far. We now expect major falls in all stockmarkets worldwide over a sustained period. We would not be surprised to see the Dow down to the 1,000 area (in today's terms) before this bear market in over. But it will not be a straight line and there will be extreme volatility. When hyperinflation sets in, stockmarkets will have a major but temporary surge. The only stocks that investors should hold are precious metals stocks and possibly some resource and food stocks. But it must be remembered that stocks do not represent the same degree of wealth preservation as physical precious metals held directly by the investor. CurrenciesCurrencies should in the next few years be looked upon as a necessary evil and not as a store of value. All currencies will continue to decline against gold, just as they have in the last 11 years and in the last 100 years. Due to money printing by most governments, we will have a fierce game of competitive devaluations by virtually all central banks. We have seen the Euro and the pound weaken substantially and the next currency the speculators will jump on is the US dollar. The dollar is grossly overvalued, partly due to the weak Euro, and is likely to weaken significantly due to the problems in the US economy. Currencies only reflect relative value and not absolute value since they can be and are printed until they reach their intrinsic value of zero. It is a fallacy to measure the value of a currency relative to another currency since they are all losing value. Currencies should only be measured against real money which is gold. This is the only method that reveals governments' deceitful actions in destroying the value of paper money. Therefore it is a mug's game to speculate or invest in currencies since they will all decline in an extremely volatile and unpredictable market. So are there currencies which are likely to perform better on a relative basis for funds that have to be held in paper money? We believe that Norwegian kroner, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Australian Dollar and Renminbi will perform relatively better than many other currencies. Government Bond MarketsThe bond market is the biggest bubble in financial markets worldwide, in our opinion. Investors around the world are worried about the state of financial markets and therefore believe that government bonds represent a safe haven. These investors will receive the most enormous shock on two accounts. Firstly, no government will be able to repay the debts outstanding. So there will either be government defaults, moratoria, or money printing that totally destroys the value of the bonds. Secondly, interest rates are likely to go up significantly to at least 10-15%, totally destroying the value of the bonds. ConclusionWe are now entering a period when most major asset classes and in particular stocks, bonds and currencies are starting a major decline. Since most financial assets in the world are invested in these three categories plus real estate which will also decline, we are likely to experience major shocks and crises in the financial system and the world economy. Wealth protection is now more important than probably at any other time in history. Physical gold and possibly other precious metals directly controlled by the investor will be a vital part of a wealth preservation portfolio. |
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