Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 27, 2024

This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened higher and closed lower. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 27745. Therefore, this market closed below the opening print while also closing down from the previous closing.

Clearly, this market has broken under the former broader cyclical support which now resides above the market at 28112 rendering it vulnerable to a further decline at this time. The market crossed that critical cyclical support five sessions ago confirming a bearish trend and now only a rally back above this level would signal a reversal in the tone of the the market implying a rally ahead.

During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 26705 settling at 27353. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 26678 which we closed above at this time. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 26809. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 27090 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 23711 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal that a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 26678
Previous... 26705
Tomorrow... 26809

This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 29905. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.

Up to now, we still have only a 3 month reaction decline from the high established during December 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 27420 and support forming below at 26715. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 29905, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 27665. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29905 made 2 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 19526 and 30756.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in December 2023 at 26340. After a nine month rally from the previous low of 22785, it made last high in December. Since this last high, the market has corrected for nine months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in April, this market has held above last month's low of 22710 reaching 24855.

Critical support still underlies this market at 22263 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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