Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 25, 2024

Next Monday is Memorial Day, which is a holiday in the United States. NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 30499 and is trading up about 26% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Immediately, this market has been rising for 2 months going into May reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 32750 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 24855. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 29905.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 29700 and overhead resistance forming above at 31280. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 32750, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 32750 to 30235. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 32750 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 23308 and 30836. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 20th reaching 32750 has exceeded the previous high of 29905 made back during the week of April 8th.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 6 months since the low established back in October 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 22030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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