Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 11, 2024

This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened higher and closed higher. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 29000. Therefore, this market has rallied over the past 6 trading sessionsNevertheless, this market remains well above all seven of our intial support levels. Meanwhile, this market's closing at this time has been the highest during this 6 day rally. This certainly warns that we can still see higher highs ahead from here. It will take a closing below 28270 to signal a decline is unfolding. This market is trading above our normal trading envelope which resides at 27930 suggesting it is strong and still in a breakout position. Moreover, this market is quite strong for now trading above all 8 technical support levels. Additionally, this market is very strong while our projected overhead resistance stands at 29175 and 29531.

This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 29905. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 27770.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 29905, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of April 29th, which has been a move of 10.45%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29905 made 4 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 22295 and 29495. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of April 8th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 25975 made back during the week of March 18th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 21975 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 27665. Additional support is to be found at 24855. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 6 months since the low established back in October 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 22030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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