Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

[DiscoverGold]

NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 18, 2024

NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31259 and is trading up about 29% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Currently, this market has been rising for 2 months going into May reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 31850 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 24855. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 29905.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 29000.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 13th at 31850, which was up 13 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 31850 to 28185. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 31850 made 0 week ago. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 13th reaching 31850 has exceeded the previous high of 29905 made back during the week of April 8th.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 6 months since the low established back in October 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 22030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

DiscoverGold