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I still hold about 10,000 shares, sold the other half @ 2.63 but had to pay a small brokers fee. Will this convert to cash next Monday or do I need to sell it?
They said OK, fine and asked if I wanted their phone number to call them, which I responded no. And that was it.
that is very interesting! I received a package from the royal bank but have not responded and did not receive a phone call. Its quite possible they are targeting those with large positions, I hold less than 5000 now.
I wonder if anyone else has had anyone contact them?
how did they respond to your reply?
D
Someone representing themselves as working for IDM called me twice today to ask if I have accepted the tender offer. I told them it was none of the business. You are right, Takeka wants this deal real bad. They know they are stealing IDM at $2.64 a share.
our dvax came back today :) not sure about pphm, could be a retrace, I'm not in it though.
Another day of low volume with some going off @ 2.64
getting closer to D-Day
D
Thanks D. Gold mines are on the way down, so I guess I'm on to dvax and csco.
As I understand it is a done deal PA and others have agreed so they have a majority, sale will go through. Your shares will be auto converted to cash at 2.64 us dollars. Only thing that could change things is a better offer from another entity or a court case delaying the transaction.
Make no mistake Takeda wants this deal
GLTY
D
...and if Takeda does not get enough interest in the offer, what happens to our shares, providing we do not accept the tender offer? Do they pull the offer? Will our shares stay with IDMI and possibly revert back to the pps before the offer?
Next week is the last week before stock offer expires Monday June 22nd if anything is to happen here it would probably start next week. If we get a close over 2.64 tomorrow I think it would be reason to get excited.
IMHO
D
even lower volume today and trading @ 2.64-2.63 range, there are almost no shares left out there up for grabs IMHO now we need to see if someone ups the bid, if this happens there is another interested party IMHO
GLTY
D
I believe the only way the offer would "expire" is if Tak or "the Board" did not sign off by that date, both have indicated that they will so it is just procedure to put an expiry on the document.
The real story is whats been happening here with the accumulation of shares after the deal announcement. I see two possible scenarios with a third thats not likely.
1. Tak is grabbing up any available shares @ or below final sale price to guaranty no possible challenge to the deal they got
2. Another party is grabbing up shares at what they consider a discount price to give them some leverage when they make a new offer for the product at a higher price. If they can convince PA to accept (and why wouldn't they if it was for say 3-4 dollars) then they would be holding a certain percentage already at the Tak price, thus saving tons.
3. This final one doesn't make as much sense, I guess if someone had tons of cash and just kept buying even under a penny from sale price and lets say they accumulated 4-5 million shares over the last few weeks I guess they would have a guaranteed profit of 50000 or more when deal goes through. However it doesn't explain why someone was buying at the sale price of 2.64 yesterday. That fact coupled with the extremely low volume (under 100000 shares compared to average of over 300000 a day over last few weeks lends me to believe one of the fist two scenarios is more likely.
D
So what would happen if the "offer" expires? I thought IDM Pharma has agreed to the offer.
same thing I got from RBC emo
D
You are right. Time will tell. In the information I received from my broker re: IDM tender offer it says "offer expires: June 22, 2009."
bigtime sign shares are getting like chickens teeth. If this trades over 2.64 that could be an indicator somethings up for sure.
IMHO
D
Yes. Finally closed at $2.64.
so far today one of the lowest days for shares traded in a long time, I wonder if things are drying up
D
PA and others already agreed to give their 53% which means that the deal is done. What I think this company is doing is getting all the stock they can at this price and then making a higher offer for the rest including PAs portion. I don't think they are managing to get a lot b/c of the churn. If they did want a lot they would push the price up. That may well happen as they get closer to making an offer. If the price begins to climb you can be certain that another offer is in the making. I may buy some of my shares back for this exact reason.
Heck if the company just sweetens the offer to $3 a share PA and others would take it. why not it's 36 cents more.
Very interesting! Perhaps Takeda will sweeten the deal. Thanks for sharing that TD.
What I can not understand is, with EMEA approval for Mepact, that IDM is fair valued only at <$67M?! So maybe some of your friends post makes sense. (DNDN at about $23 has a $2.51B market cap?!, and as far as I can see that is a wing and pray at these prices).
I am bewildered. As I posted before, BoD and executive management put IDM behind the eight ball and Takeda is closing this deal as fast as they can. They know they are stealing this company.
I hope your friend is right! GLTU
got an email from the friend that initially got me into to IDMI today. Spoke at length about the deal and the share holders disappointment. He has done huge DD on this company and holds quite a few shares. Here is an excerpt from his email to me,and it has some interesting ideas
"Word is that this was the best deal they could put together that gave the BOD best and quickest return. Other offers let the BOD bonuses down or didn't cover quick return but had promise for much greater return in the long run. This was the happy median giving us almost a dollar more than the stock was trading at before the announcement and keeping almost all the bonuses for upper.
Now heres the interesting part and it has no teeth behind it just a buzz going on in the background BUT, some feel this accumulation over the last little while is another company from an original offer grabbing what they can @ 2.60's and then making a better offer for whatever they haven't been able to scoop before sale date."
Again no DD to support possibly just hopeful investors refusing to acknowledge the truth but it is an interesting spin!
We can always hope:)
GLTY
D
I have put a call into the firm handling the class action but have not heard back yet I will try again and post any news in the ibox, I will send you a message when I find anything out.
D
Is anyone still holding ALL of the shares? I have heard conflicting stories that you only need to be holding a small amount of IDMI to remain part of the class action. On the other side, I hear you should keep all? Any one heard a diffinitive way to go?
I only hold about 15,000 shares, so the price from here to $2.64 is really meaningless. I want to sell a majority of my shares to get more DVAX and KGN (sorry, gold stock) but I'm affraid I'll miss out on anly favorable litigation. Help! Thanks.
Ray
it just reinforces my thoughts that the IDMI sale was a little stinky. I'm sure if this had been around a few more weeks we would be sitting higher than the sale price. With that said if they interviewed 50 candidates I guess we thought it was worth more than the guys with the money
GLTY
D
As Bow pointed out, immune therapies finally working against cancer.
My thought is the same.
From YMB:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_D/threadview?m=tm&bn=26790&tid=15955&mid=15955&tof=1&frt=1
GLTA
well so far so good with the dvax move
:)
D
UC San Francisco unveils $135 million cancer research center
By Sandy Kleffman
Contra Costa Times
Posted: 06/02/2009 09:22:17 PM PDT
Updated: 06/03/2009 06:27:16 AM PDT
SAN FRANCISCO — UC San Francisco opened a new $135 million cancer research center Tuesday where scientists hope to develop promising therapies and find better ways to diagnose and prevent disease.
The five-story, 163,000-square-foot structure will more than double the amount of laboratory space devoted to cancer research at UCSF.
It will house 250 researchers working in 33 laboratories, and will eventually expand to 400 researchers.
Those who attended the grand opening of the Helen Diller Family Cancer Research Building got a sneak preview of the future of personalized medicine and what leading experts hope to accomplish in their battle against cancer.
"We are deeply grateful for giving us the opportunity to work under one roof, and my vow to you is that we're going to make an impact on this disease," said Dr. Mitchel Berger, director of the UCSF Brain Tumor Research Center.
Like many of the university's cancer specialists, those working on brain tumors have been separated in three buildings in various locations in San Francisco.
Bringing them together in one spot on the Mission Bay campus will enable them to work collaboratively with one another and the thriving biomedical community in the area, said Frank McCormick, director of the cancer center.
UCSF also plans to build a 289-bed medical center nearby that would open in 2014. It would include a cancer specialty hospital, as well as facilities devoted to women and children.
Having physicians working side-by-side with scientists and clinical researchers should help speed transforming laboratory findings into improved patient care, McCormick said.
The cancer center is named after Bay Area resident Helen Diller, who donated $35 million. All told, the university raised $81.5 million in private funding for the center and financed the rest with its own resources.
For the opening ceremonies, UCSF organized a panel discussion among experts, including J. Craig Venter, who led the team that sequenced the human genome.
Venter predicted that a time is coming when scientists will decode the genetic makeup of thousands of patients and use that information to make decisions about effective treatments, drugs and the proper dosages for each person.
"It's not surprising at all that all drugs don't work on everybody," he said, given how genetic makeup varies from person to person.
As an example of such personalized medicine, Dr. Susan Desmond-Hellmann cited Herceptin, a breast cancer drug. She led the team that helped bring Herceptin to market as the former president of product development at Genentech. She will soon become the new chancellor of UCSF, replacing Dr. J. Michael Bishop.
In the early 1990s, Desmond-Hellmann said, she knew that women who had breast cancer and a certain genetic makeup had a shortened life expectancy compared with other women with breast cancer. But she had no specialized treatments to offer them.
Herceptin has shown success by targeting the HER2 gene in these women. Scientists can now tell which women are likely to benefit from the drug and which are not, she said. Thus physicians can avoid giving the drug to everybody and having some suffer the side effects without receiving any benefit.
Genetic information could also help with prevention. If people know they have a makeup that increases their susceptibility to a certain kind of cancer, Venter said, there may be steps they can take to help prevent it. In the long run, he added, that could help control health care costs.
But as patients gain more knowledge, McCormick emphasized, health leaders will need to help them interpret what it all means and how they should respond.
"It's really awful to know you're at high risk of disease and there is nothing you can do about it," he said.
Reach Sandy Kleffman at 925-943-8249 or skleffman@bayareanewsgroup.com.
Immune therapies finally working against cancer
By MARILYNN MARCHIONE AP Medical Writer
Posted: 05/31/2009 07:52:42 AM PDT
Updated: 05/31/2009 11:38:24 AM PDT
from the San Jose Mercury News, 6/1/09 page 4A.
ORLANDO, Fla.—First there was surgery, then chemotherapy and radiation. Now, doctors have overcome 30 years of false starts and found success with a fourth way to fight cancer: using the body's natural defender, the immune system.
The approach is called a cancer vaccine, although it treats the disease rather than prevents it.
At a cancer conference Sunday, researchers said one such vaccine kept a common form of lymphoma from worsening for more than a year. That's huge in this field, where progress is glacial and success with a new treatment is often measured in weeks or even days.
Experimental vaccines against three other cancers—prostate, the deadly skin disease melanoma and an often fatal childhood tumor called neuroblastoma—also gave positive results in late-stage testing in recent weeks, after decades of struggles in the lab.
"I don't know what we did differently to make the breakthrough," said Dr. Len Lichtenfeld of the American Cancer Society.
Instead of a single "A-Ha!" moment, there have been many "ah, so" discoveries about the immune system that now seem to be paying off, said Dr. John Niederhuber, director of the National Cancer Institute.
It's way too soon to declare victory. No one knows how long the benefits will last, whether people will need "boosters" to keep their disease in check, or whether vaccines will ever be a cure. Many vaccines must be custom-made for each patient. How practical will that be, and what will it cost?
Those are all good questions—but there are no answers yet, said Dr. Richard Schilsky, a University of Chicago cancer specialist who is president of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.
Several vaccine studies were reported over the weekend at the oncology group's annual meeting in Florida.
A big problem has been getting the immune system to "see" cancer as a threat, said Dr. Patrick Hwu, melanoma chief at the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. Viruses like the flu or polio are easily spotted by the immune system because they look different from human cells.
"But cancer comes from our own cells. And so it's more like guerrilla warfare—the immune system has trouble distinguishing the normal cells from the cancer cells," he said.
To help it do that, many cancer vaccines take a substance from a cancer cell's surface and attach it to something the immune system already recognizes as foreign—in the lymphoma vaccine's case, a shellfish protein.
"It's a mimic to what you're trying to kill, a training device to train the immune system to kill something," Hwu explained.
To make the attack as strong as possible, doctors add a substance to put the immune system on high alert.
Dr. Stephen Schuster of the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine led a study testing BiovaxID, an experimental vaccine against follicular lymphoma developed by the National Cancer Institute. Rights to it are now held by Biovest International Inc. of Worcester, Mass., and some of his co-researchers have financial ties to the company.
To be in the study, patients had to have achieved a remission for at least six months with standard chemo. This often occurs with this type of lymphoma, but the disease usually comes back.
Researchers gave 41 patients the shellfish protein and an immune booster; 76 other patients were given those plus the vaccine. After nearly five years of followup, the average time until the cancer worsened was 44 months in the vaccine group and 30 months in the others.
Big gains also were seen with a neuroblastoma vaccine developed by the cancer institute. In a study of 226 patients, 86 percent of vaccine recipients were still alive after two years versus 75 percent of others not given the vaccine. Results were released by the oncology society two weeks ago.
The benefits from a melanoma vaccine developed by the cancer institute were more modest. It extended the time until patients relapsed—three months versus one and a half for those not given the vaccine.
Hilde Stapleton, 53, of suburban Houston, is one of the lucky ones it helped. Still, she found what many other vaccine recipients have learned: The vaccine had few side effects, but the immune system boosters were "like the worst case of flu you've ever had," she said.
The prostate cancer vaccine, Provenge, is farthest along. Its maker, Seattle-based Dendreon Corp., is seeking federal Food and Drug Administration approval for it. A study last month found that it extended survival by four months in men with very advanced disease.
Doctors unconnected with these experiments are cautiously optimistic.
"We've raised so many false hopes in the past," said Lichtenfeld of the Cancer Society. "What's different this time is we have the science reports to back up improvements."
———On the Net:
Cancer meeting: http://www.asco.org
National Cancer Institute: http://www.cancer.gov
We're likely done. SVNT the next big stock.
With the new filings from Jade Subsidiary, it looks like Takeda is moving quick and aggressively to get the deal done. If IDM met with 50 strategic partners over the past 6 months and had serious discussions, it seems unlikely that a better offer will come forward.
Savient Pharma has a gout drug that works amazingly well in the treatment refractory gout population. Main problem is possible association with cardiac events. Advisory Committee meeting coming on June 16th, so the stock currently is at $6 a share will either be $12-15 a share or $1-2 after the meeting. The market is pricing Savient as if it has only a 30% chance of approval. Their review is under fast track status, for which historically drugs that received this status have a 70% chance of approval. I'd put the odds of a favorable AC meeting at 75%. If the odds were higher, then the stock would be trading above $15. Of course do your own due diligence.
thanks, I am tapped right now just got into DVAX at 1.25 and bought some ACLS as well, very interesting chart on ACLS and insider buying. Institutions hold almost 75%
I will keep my on on pphm though thanks for the heads up, alot of these are runnin g on spec into this weekends conf
D
Watch or buy PPHM. News today and next Monday at ASCO. Traded 36.5 million shares, up $0.31 or ~52% today. Up a dime yesterday also.
Something is going on.
See:
http://www.anti-ps.blogspot.com/
for some DD in viral and tumor indications. See also:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=2076
just discussing other bio stocks that might prove fruitfull and thought I would mention I was going to throw something at DVAX. I don't want to sell the majority of my IDMI I am going to wait until the exchange but I don't want to miss another run on something else. No point, just discussing other possible investments.
Anything you are watching?
D
What's your point?
i am goint to do an experiment, I have watched to many bio pass me the last month I am selling 500 shares of idmi and buying 1000 dvax to see what transpires.
D
Those pages are a good read. Looks like the warrant holders will get paid even though the options will be out of the money. My over-all reaction is that the execs/board and Palo Alto are taking the easy way out. I wonder who company B was? My other take is that there is still the option of an unsolicited bid popping up from either company B or another. I wished they disclosed what the licensing offers were.
IDM had talks with FIFTY STRATEGIC PARTNERS
Just read the SEC SC 14D9 filed yesterday. Pages 16-24 are the most interesting. They had talks with 50 strategic partners of which 17 entered into a confidentiality agreement and due diligence. It seems like they got 3 serious offers, one of which could have been over $100 million, but this offer was reduced, leaving Takeda as the highest offer. I guess you can look at it two ways. There was a lot of interest and IDM did a very thorough review and hence, the $2.64 is the best price they could get in this brutal market. The other way you could look at it is that one of those 17 strategic partners that entered into a confidentiality agreement could at any moment provide an unsolicited offer for more since management has talked with so many companies. If there is a higher offer, it will likely come this Monday or next Monday as I assume it will be too late by then. Palo Alto also fully reserved their right to back out if a superior offer surfaces.
One final question I wonder is if Palo Alto retains the right to solicit an offer. I know the agreement says that IDM Pharma can't solicit an offer, but am not sure if this applies to PA investors. Perhaps PA investors are craftier than we think and they are actively trying to find another offer behind the scenes?
I like DVAX but I can't figure out that clinical hold on their Hep B drug, Heplislav. Can they get around that severe adverse event? I like how the drug is more effective in less doses and it will jump if they can get past the clinical hold. Here are links to the hold and adverse event.
http://investors.dynavax.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=364109
http://investors.dynavax.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=379781
I don't trust any journalist or brokerage houses for that matter but I do use journalist to spark my interest and then I dig into the stock myself.
I do respect the word of Jim Chanos and I highly recommend that you guys take a look at this interview; very informative and forward looking.
http://valueplays.blogspot.com/2008/11/kynikos-associates-jim-chanos-video.html
THOUGHTS ON DVAX QUESTION TO THE BOARD
D
Thanks for the info, I don't know the company, but I will try to do my DD.
Cheers
I bought into KERX at $.405. They have a new CEO and a big presentation this weekend. There were some nice insider buys last week.
I would think that would be unlikely as companies with much less potential have recieved extensions on the NASDAQ requirements as of late in lieu of current economy conditions.
D
Well, I really don't care too much about what this guy says.
http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/biotech/10427135.html
When things happen, suddenly he changes his opinion.
Keep in mind that behind him there is a powerful organization and after all he is only a journalist, not a scientist.
Cheers
This is a longshot, but any chance this is what's going on?
Palo Alto Investors, Medarex and IDM Pharma agreed to the buyout so that they could maintain their minimum valuation of $50 million to remain on NASDAQ, while they continue to "passively" look for offers? I know it's unlikely, but I keep hoping and hoping.
Man,it seems like it was a huge mistake to keep so much wrapped up in this I missed SPPI and VNDA as well as DNDn all these were recommended to me before the jumps bt I had alot of faith in the capabilities of IDM and it BOD.
Any thoughts on ADLS?
D
The Vanda news, Cougar buyout, and this premature over-all market rally have made things in biotech too pricey for me. It's a real shame that IDM couldn't catch a bid with such enthusiasm in the baby-biotechs.
I do have my eye on titan pharmaceutical but I'm only interested at the dollar level so it will have to come in. I shouldn't have waited but here's the story; they are a play on the VNDA antipsychotic drug Fanapt. Titan owns a 8-10 percent royalty on Fanapt and so it's a potentially much cheaper way to play Vanda. It's a pink sheet but it should have a nice revenue stream once Vanda starts selling Fanapt. Adam Feurstein explains it nicely; Here's the link.
http://www.thestreet.com/_rms/s/vanda-up-800-still-has-room-to-rise/newsanalysis/biotech/10499426.html
thanks for the response tzm I think I will hold for now, any thoughts on a stock with a half decent entry point that I could throw some of these small profits at? I would love to get into something in or around the dollar range, just wondering if theres something on your radar.
glty
D
I forgot to mention one other minor benefit to not selling prior to the tender and that is not paying any stock commisions. When you tender or get forced to tender, your shares are converted to cash and so no stock commision is necessary, just a tranfer. It's not a big deal but it can amount to a half a penny a share or more depending on your broker fees.
Hey Tenacious, I didn't like how it went down either but I guess that the cash situation really forced IDM's hand. I'm sure that the executives/board tried to drum up a better bid because they all have skin in the game. Walbert has approx. 200k shares of options that exercise at 3.18 so they are worthless and Palo Alto has about a million warrants that will be out of the money as well; though I'm not 100% certain what happens to those stock options.
That being said, there is still a chance that a better deal comes along but it is a long shot. Good Luck my friend!
I know a lot of you guys are upset with the takeover price but my guess is that the Takeda offer was the best offer at the time and IDM decided to take it and leave themselves a 20 business day window for a better offer to come about. They can't solicit another offer but another company can approach IDM and submit an offer. The marketing of Mepact must move forward and since IDM didn't have the capabilities to market the drug, the Takeda offer was the best option.
It is my belief that the stock is trading a couple cents below the tender price because people are playing it as if it is a free call; If a better offer arrives, well then they make the upside and if nothing better comes, well then they tied up their money for a month and got paid a couple of cents.
The appraisal rights and the court action taken by shareholders are two other variables at work but it seems that the top-up option will negate the appraisal rights. The court action might force Takeda to sweeten the deal in order to proceed quickly but that seems like a long shot also. Good luck everyone.
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