IDM Pharma, Inc. (IDMI)

[idmi_investor]

We're likely done. SVNT the next big stock.

With the new filings from Jade Subsidiary, it looks like Takeda is moving quick and aggressively to get the deal done. If IDM met with 50 strategic partners over the past 6 months and had serious discussions, it seems unlikely that a better offer will come forward.

Savient Pharma has a gout drug that works amazingly well in the treatment refractory gout population. Main problem is possible association with cardiac events. Advisory Committee meeting coming on June 16th, so the stock currently is at $6 a share will either be $12-15 a share or $1-2 after the meeting. The market is pricing Savient as if it has only a 30% chance of approval. Their review is under fast track status, for which historically drugs that received this status have a 70% chance of approval. I'd put the odds of a favorable AC meeting at 75%. If the odds were higher, then the stock would be trading above $15. Of course do your own due diligence.