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COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Futures Market Reports
* December 30, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
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Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures
* October 22, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 18, 2016.
Crude oil: This time of the year, it is normal for U.S. crude inventory to build. Refineries go into maintenance, producing less fuel products.
In the week through October 14, refinery utilization did indeed drop five-tenths of a point, to 85 percent – the lowest since April 26, 2013.
Distillate stocks fell too, by 1.2 million barrels to 155.6 million barrels – a seven-week low.
But gasoline stocks rose, by 2.5 million barrels to 228 million barrels – a five-week high.
The surprise of all, crude stocks fell by 5.2 million barrels to 468.7 million barrels. This was the lowest since January 22 this year. Crude stocks have dropped by 26.5 million barrels in the last seven weeks, and refinery utilization by 8.5 percentage points in the last six.
Perhaps contributing to the large weekly drop in crude stocks was crude imports, which fell a whopping 954,000 barrels per day to 6.9 million b/d – the lowest since June 19, 2015.
Production rose a tad, by 14,000 b/d to 8.5 mb/d. Production peaked at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year.
Traders on Wednesday decided to focus on the drop in crude stocks/imports not the increase in gasoline stocks. Spot West Texas Intermediate crude rallied 2.4 percent in that session, past the June 9th high of $51.67/barrel. XLE, the SPDR energy ETF, tagged along, up 1.4 percent, but substantially off session highs.
Since February lows, spot WTI has been making higher lows, and would have been an interesting development should it convincingly push past the June 9th high for higher highs. The problem is, it has fatigue written all over, with a daily bearish MACD crossover.
Currently net long 378.5k, down 2.8k.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-66/
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COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Futures Market Reports
* October 21, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
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Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures
* October 8, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 4, 2016.
Crude oil: Spot West Texas Intermediate crude managed to break out of the declining trend line drawn from May last year. The June 9th high of $51.67/barrel has now taken on greater significance. Until that high gets taken out, crude remains range bound, with the August 3rd low of $39.19 on the bottom end.
This week, the EIA data helped trader sentiment as well.
In the week ended September 30, U.S. crude stocks fell by three million barrels to 499.7 million barrels – the lowest since January 22 this year.
Distillate stocks dropped, too, by 2.4 million barrels to 160.7 million barrels.
Crude imports fell by 125,000 barrels per day to 7.7 million b/d.
Ditto with crude production, which declined by 30,000 b/d to 8.47 mb/d. Production peaked at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year.
Refinery utilization, however, fell from 90.1 to 88.3 percent – a 23-week low.
And gasoline stocks rose by 222,000 barrels to 227.4 million barrels.
Spot WTI remains overbought on the daily chart. It has been trading along a rising trend line from February lows, so the recent breakout could prove to be important, should it manage to take out the June 9th high. On the other hand, price likely retreats near term. The February trend line gets tested around $45.
Currently net long 343.9k, up 34.5k.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-64/
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COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Futures Market Reports
* October 7, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
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Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures
* October 1, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 27, 2016.
Crude oil: OPEC commits itself to cutting output to between 32.5 million barrels per day and 33 mb/d. In August, the cartel produced 33.24 mb/d. The last time the 14-member group, with a little over one-third market share globally, cut production was during the financial crisis in 2008. Shows how much the producers, including Saudi Arabia, are hurting.
In the grand scheme of things, fundamentally this is not that big of a cut, given the prevailing oil glut. Also on Wednesday, but before the OPEC decision, the International Energy Agency said it did not see the oil market rebalancing until late 2017.
That said, OPEC’s decision speaks of the producing nations’ intent – that they are willing to compromise. Saudi Arabia in particular, which produced a record 10.673 million barrels per day in July, is capitulating. There are no details yet on how the cuts will be implemented – a potential source of discord later. Iran in particular seems to be targeting pre-sanction market share not just four mb/d.
When it is all said and done, this may prove to be a life line for U.S. shale oil, which then means glut persists, precisely what OPEC is trying to avoid. Time will tell.
Be that as it may, it was enough of a catalyst for traders to push up spot West Texas Intermediate crude 5.3 percent on Wednesday – past the August 19th declining trend line – and then another 2.5 percent in the next two sessions. The 50-day moving average has been recaptured.
A bigger hurdle lies around $48/barrel, which approximates the declining trend line drawn from the May 2015 high of $62.58. The spot ended the week right on that resistance.
On a related note, mid-September short interest on XLE, the SPDR energy ETF, surged 38 percent period-over-period. These shorts probably got squeezed, leading to the 5.7-percent surge on Wednesday through Friday. The ETF closed the week at $70.61 – right at resistance, which goes back to March 2011.
Trader sentiment on Wednesday was also helped by the EIA data.
In the week ended September 23, U.S. crude stocks fell by 1.9 million barrels to 502.7 million barrels – the lowest since February 5 this year.
Distillate stocks dropped by the same amount to 163.1 million barrels. The prior week was the highest since January 8 this year.
Gasoline stocks, however, rose by two million barrels to 227.2 million barrels. The prior week was the lowest since December 25 last year.
Crude imports fell by 474,000 b/d to 7.8 mb/d.
Crude production declined 15,000 b/d to 8.5 mb/d. Production peaked at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year.
Refinery utilization stood at 90.1 percent, down from 92 percent. This was a 17-week low.
Currently net long 309.4k, up 29.3k.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-63/
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COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Futures Market Reports
* September 30, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
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Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures
* September 24, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 20, 2016.
Crude oil: Saudi Arabia produced a record 10.673 million barrels per day in July, up from 10.550 mb/d in June. Its crude exports rose to 7.622 mb/d from 7.456 mb/d in June. Next week, OPEC meets in Algiers. Its 14 members are pumping more than 33 million barrels per day. Inaction means oil glut only gets worse.
In the U.S., in the week ended September 16th, crude stocks fell by 6.2 million barrels to 504.6 million barrels – the lowest since February 26th this year.
Gasoline stocks dropped by 3.2 million barrels to 225.2 million barrels. This was the lowest since December 25th last year.
Distillate stocks, however, rose by 2.2 million barrels to 165 million barrels – the highest since January 8th this year.
Crude production increased by 19,000 b/d to 8.51 mb/d – a four-week high. Production peaked at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year.
Crude imports stood at 8.3 mb/d, up 247,000 b/d.
Refinery utilization fell nine-tenths of a point to 92 percent – a 13-week low.
Spot West Texas Intermediate crude on Tuesday once again tested support at $43-$43.50, which held. This was followed by recapturing of the 50-day moving average, which was again lost on Friday. The spot would have met the declining trend line drawn from the June 9th high of $51.67/barrel around $48, but retreated before reaching there, with the intra-day high on Friday of $46.55. The pattern of lower highs since that peak continues.
Currently net long 280.2k, down 37.3k.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-62/
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COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Futures Market Reports
* September 23, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
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COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Futures Market Reports
* September 16, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
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Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures
* September 10, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 6, 2016.
Crude oil: Support at $43-$43.50 on spot West Texas Intermediate crude was defended last week. It feebly built on that this week.
News quoting a National Iranian Oil Co. official that Iran can raise daily production to four million barrels in two to three months from the current 3.8 million barrels was passed over. Traders in particular focused on the EIA data.
In the week ended September 2nd, crude stocks fell 14.5 million barrels to 511.4 million barrels. This was the lowest since February 19th this year.
Gasoline stocks dropped by 4.2 million barrels to 227.8 million barrels – the lowest since December 25th last year.
Crude production declined by 30,000 barrels per day to 8.46 million b/d. Production peaked at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year.
Crude imports fell by 1.8 mb/d to 7.07 mb/d – the lowest since November 13th last year.
Refinery utilization rose nine-tenths of a point to 93.7 percent – the highest since November 27th last year.
The only negative data point was distillate inventory, which rose by 3.4 million barrels to 158.1 million barrels.
Spot WTI rallied 3.2 percent for the week. The EIA data was probably influenced by Hermine, so oil in all likelihood may find it difficult to maintain recent momentum.
Currently net long 298.3k, down 61k.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-60/
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COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Futures Market Reports
* September 9, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
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Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures
* September 3, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 30, 2016. Change is week-over-week.
Crude oil: The failure two weeks ago to break out of a potentially bullish reverse head-and-shoulders formation is proving costly for spot West Texas Intermediate crude. After last week’s three-percent drop, it dropped another 6.7 percent this week.
Momentum was already down. Come Wednesday, the spot suffered a daily bearish MACD cross, also losing the declining 50-day moving average. The 200-day – flattish – is 7.9 percent away. Wednesday’s EIA data was not much help.
In the week ended August 26th, crude stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels to 525.9 million barrels – a nine-week high.
Distillate stocks increased by 1.5 million barrels to 154.8 million barrels – a 16-week high.
Crude imports were up 275,000 barrels per day to 8.9 million b/d – the highest since September 14, 2012.
Gasoline stocks, however, fell by 691,000 barrels to 232 million barrels. This was the lowest since January 1st this year.
Refinery utilization rose three-tenths of a point to 92.8 percent.
Last but not the least, crude production fell by 60,000 b/d to 8.49 mb/d. Production peaked at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year.
Off the August 19th high of $49.36, the spot is now down five points. Support at $43-$43.50 has taken on a new significance. It was defended on Thursday and Friday.
Currently net long 359.3k, down 6.1k.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-59/
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COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Futures Market Reports
* September 2, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
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Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures
* August 27, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 23, 2016. Change is week-over-week.
Crude oil: Easy come, easy go? Too soon to reach that conclusion, but a lot is riding on OPEC’s informal meeting slated for late September. Mere talk of possible announcement of production freeze has done wonders to crude oil, with spot West Texas Intermediate crude rallying 26 percent in a little over two weeks before coming under pressure this week. Oil bulls need results not just rumors for these gains to sustain.
Especially considering that at last Friday’s intra-day high spot WTI was a hair’s breadth away from the neckline of a potentially bullish reverse head-and-shoulders formation. Longs decided to lock in gains.
The EIA data for the week ended August 19th provided a good excuse.
Stocks rose. Crude inventory rose by 2.5 million barrels to 523.6 million barrels, gasoline inventory by 36,000 barrels to 232.7 million barrels, and distillate inventory by 122,000 barrels to 153.3 million barrels.
Crude imports increased 449,000 barrels per day to 8.6 million b/d.
Refinery utilization dropped one percentage point to 92.5 percent.
Crude production, however, fell slightly, by 49,000 b/d to 8.5 mb/d. Production peaked at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year.
Immediately ahead, it will be interesting to see if WTI longs can defend the 50-day moving average, which is two points lower.
Currently net long 365.4k, up 71.4k.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-58/
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COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Futures Market Reports
* August 26, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
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Headline Risk in the Oil Market Becomes a Formidable Challenge to the Shorts
By MPTrader
* August 23, 2016
Headline risk has returned with a vengeance in the Oil market.
For the better part of August, various comments by Oil producers in general, and Saudi Arabia in particular, about a production ceiling, or even a cut, at the upcoming September OPEC Meeting have underpinned the price advance from $39.19 (Aug 03) to $48.75 (Aug 19).
This morning’s headline risk reared its head again, with a Reuters story indicating that Iran is sending signals to OPEC that it also will join other Members in an effort to boost prices.
In reaction to the story, Oil immediately pivoted to the upside into a 3.6% spike from $46.60 to $48.30.
The sharp upside reversal has the right look of the end of a pullback from $48.75 to $46.49, and the start of a new upleg within the still-dominant advance from the Aug low at $39.19.
If accurate, then this upleg should propel Oil to retest key resistance at $50.00 to the June high at $51.57-- in route to $58.00-$60.00 thereafter.
https://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/
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Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures
* August 20, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 16, 2016. Change is week-over-week.
Crude oil: The EIA data for the week ended August 12th, released Wednesday, for the most part favored oil bulls. Spot West Texas Intermediate crude was already up 4.7 percent in the first two sessions. On Wednesday, buyers showed up near the 50-day moving average. By the time the week was over, it was up 10.4 percent.
The daily chart is now extended; on a weekly basis, there is room for more rally. It is a matter of which timeframe wins out.
The June 9th high of $51.67/barrel is 5.2 percent away.
The trend in gasoline continues to be good. Stocks dropped by 2.7 million barrels to 232.7 million barrels – down 26 million barrels from February 12th this year.
Crude stocks decreased 2.5 million barrels to 521.1 million barrels. Inventory is now down 22.3 million barrels from the April 29th high of 543.4 million barrels, which was the highest since the all-time high 545.2 million barrels in October 1929.
Crude imports fell, too, by 211,000 to 8.2 million barrels per day – a four-week low.
Refinery utilization rose 1.3 percentage points to 93.5 percent, which was the highest since the November 27th week last year.
Crude production, on the other hand, rose by 152,000 b/d to 8.6 mb/d. This was a seven-week high. Production peaked at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year.
Distillate stocks rose by 1.9 million barrels to 153.1 million barrels.
Currently net long 294k, up 27k.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-57/
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COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Futures Market Reports
* August 19, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
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Crude Oil: Bullish Bottom
By Carl Swenlin
* August 14, 2016
In the last week a bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern has emerged on the crude oil chart. Also, the PMO generated a crossover BUY signal as it crossed up through its signal line, increasing, in my opinion, the odds that price will penetrate the neckline.
If the neckline is penetrated, the minimum upside target is equal to the distance between the head and the neckline. In this case that is about 77.50, but I think that is a little too ambitious based upon other considerations. On the chart below we can see an horizontal resistance line drawn across the 2015 top at around 62.00. Just above that is a zone of resistance beginning at about 70.00.
As for positive evidence, the weekly PMO appears ready to bottom right on the signal line. Also, the weekly EMAs are signaling for higher prices, with the 17EMA bottoming just above the 43EMA.
Looking at the price highs earlier in the decade, one might conclude that an upside target above 100.00 might be attainable; however, the supply/demand equation has changed radically since those good old days. Something unexpected would need to happen to overcome this fundamental barrier.
CONCLUSION: A bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern has formed on the crude oil chart. Other positive technicals make me think that the pattern will probably execute, with price breaking above the neckline. However, I don't think that price will make the minimum upside target of 77.50 because of fundamental conditions and overhead resistance.
Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.
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