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Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures
* April 30, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 26, 2016. Change is week-over-week.
Crude oil: There goes $43.50 on spot West Texas Intermediate crude. This resistance goes back to January last year, and, in fact, can be extended to even July 2004.
Technically, crude momentum is intact. That said, Friday, a high-volume session, produced a long-legged doji – first sign of distribution in a while.
This week, help came from the U.S. dollar.
Fundamentally, data were mixed at best.
For the week ended April 22nd, crude inventory rose by another two million barrels to 540.6 million barrels. In the past 16 weeks, stocks have gone up by 58.3 million barrels, and are inching ever closer to the all-time high 545 million barrels in 1929.
Also not helping matters were gasoline stocks, which increased 1.6 million barrels to 241.3 million barrels. And refinery utilization fell 1.3 percentage points to 88.1 percent. Utilization has dropped by 3.3 percentage points in the past three weeks.
On the positive column, distillate stocks fell 1.7 million barrels to 158.2 million barrels. Crude imports fell 637,000 barrels per day to 7.6 million b/d.
Last but not the least, crude production dropped 15,000 b/d to 8.9 mb/d. This was the third straight week of sub-nine mb/d. Production peaked at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year, so has declined by more than 600,000 b/d.
Spot WTI (45.99) began its freefall in June 2014, dropping from 107.68 to the February 11th hammer low of 26.05. A 23.6-percent retracement of the decline puts the crude at 45.31.
Currently net long 329.8k, up 3.5k.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-41/
• DiscoverGold.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Futures Market Report
* April 29, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
• DiscoverGold.
Click on "In reply to", for previous Reports.
Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures
* April 23, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 19, 2016. Change is week-over-week.
Crude oil: At least in the U.S., the divergence between crude and gasoline stocks continues.
For the week ended April 15th, crude inventory rose by another 2.1 million barrels to 538.6 million barrels. In the past 15 weeks, stocks have gone up by 56.3 million barrels. Stocks are inching ever closer to the all-time high 545 million barrels in 1929.
Gasoline stocks, on the other hand, fell by another 110,000 barrels to 239.7 million barrels. Stocks have gone down by 19 million barrels in the past nine weeks.
Other positives included distillate inventory, which fell 3.6 million barrels to 159.9 million barrels, and crude production, which stayed below nine million barrels per day for a second week, dropping 24,000 b/d to 8.95 mb/d. Production peaked at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year, so has declined by more than 600,000 b/d. Further, refinery utilization inched up two-tenths of a percent to 89.4 percent.
On the negative column were crude imports, which increased 247,000 b/d to 8.2 mb/d.
Markets continue to be in a mood of clinging on to the positives and giving the cold shoulder to the negatives.
Spot West Texas Intermediate crude added another 4.8 percent this week – its third consecutive up week. Since April 5th when it successfully defended breakout support at $34.50-$35 through the Thursday intra-day high, it rallied 26 percent.
With this, the WTI sits right at resistance at $43.50 that goes back to January last year, and, in fact, can be extended to even July 2004. Needlessly to say, a breakout here would be a massive technical win for the bulls.
In the event of a breakout, given the run it has had since February 11th and the overbought conditions it is in, whether or not it will stick is a different matter altogether.
Currently net long 326.3k, up 32.7k.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-40/
• DiscoverGold.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Futures Market Report
* April 22, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
• DiscoverGold.
Click on "In reply to", for previous Reports.
Doha Bust? Now What for Oil?
By MPTrader
* April 19, 2016
Post-Doha, Oil has declined about 5.5%, from above $40 into the $38 area, just above its Feb-Apr support line, which crosses the price axis in the vicinity of 37.50 today.
Based on my pattern work, all of the action off of the Apr pullback low at $35.24 up to the Apr 13 new recovery high at $42.42, and now down to $37.50 in the aftermath of Doha, represents the initial thrust and correction of a still-incomplete, new post-Feb advance.
Barring a sustained break of the Apr 5 low, I am expecting the post-Doha weakness to end in the upcoming hours in the vicinity of $37.00, and thereafter, Oil will pivot to the upside into another upleg that projects to $45.00.
https://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/
• DiscoverGold.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures
* April 16, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week.
Crude oil: Will Sunday’s Doha talks live up to expectations? Likely not. An agreement that solidifies on earlier output-cut proposals probably ends up raising risks that a lot of shale oil that was at risk of being cut – a Saudi goal all along – would be profitable again. The glut remains in this scenario.
In the meantime, the International Energy Agency says global oil demand will grow by around 1.2 million barrels per day this year, below 2015’s 1.8 mb/d.
For the week ended last Friday, U.S. crude stocks rose by 6.6 million barrels to 536.5 million barrels – the highest since the all-time high of 545 million barrels in 1929. In the past 14 weeks, stocks have gone up by 54.2 million barrels!
Crude imports, too, rose, but by only 686,000 b/d to 7.94 mb/d – a three-week high.
Refinery utilization fell 2.2 percentage points to 89.2.
The good news came in the way of crude production and gasoline stocks. The former fell by 31,000 b/d to 8.98 mb/d. This was the first time production fell below nine mb/d since October 2014.
Gasoline stocks dropped 4.2 million barrels to 239.8 million barrels. Stocks have fallen by 18.9 million barrels in the past eight weeks. Distillate stocks, however, rose by 505,000 barrels to 163.5 million barrels.
Spot West Texas Intermediate crude rallied strongly after crucial support at $34.50-$35 held on April 5th. Subsequently, it ran past its 200-day moving average, and has retreated since Tuesday after hitting the upper Bollinger Band.
Conditions are grossly overbought. Should there be a post-Doha rally on Monday, that likely gets sold.
Currently net long 293.6k, up 257.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-39/
• DiscoverGold.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Futures Market Reports
* April 15, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
• DiscoverGold.
Click on "In reply to", for previous Reports.
Continued Recovery Strength in the Canadian Dollar Argues for Still-Higher Oil Prices
By MPTrader
* April 12, 2016
Let's notice that the USD is pressing on its March low at 1.2860, a level last seen in July 2015.
It should come as no surprise that "petro-currency" CAD has climbed 14% since Jan 20 as Crude Oil has recovered from $26.06 to nearly $42.00 during the same timeframe.
And in that USD/CAD appears to be on the verge of breaking down further (CAD stronger), perhaps the set-up also is "warning us" to expect additional strength in Crude Oil too?
https://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/
• DiscoverGold.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
Oil Continues to Outperform Equities
By MPTrader
* April 8, 2016
ES (Emini S&P 500) already has recovered half of yesterday's decline, and is approaching key resistance at 2057/62, which if hurdled and sustained, will argue strongly that yesterday's breakdown ended a correction off of the April1 high at 2071.50, rather than the initiation of a more pronounced period of weakness in the aftermath of the Feb-Apr upleg.
Meanwhile, Oil has ripped to the upside, taking out Wed's recovery high at $38.30 into new rally high territory at $39.28 so far-- in route to my next upside target zone of $40-$42.
https://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/
• George.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures
* April 9, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week.
Crude oil: Fortunes flipped, so to speak.
For the week ended last Friday, crude stocks fell in the U.S., while gasoline and distillate stocks rose.
For the first time in eight weeks, crude inventory declined – by 4.9 million barrels to 529.9 million barrels. The prior week was the highest since the all-time high in 1929. In the past 13 weeks, stocks have gone up by 47.6 million barrels.
In the meantime, gasoline stocks rose by 1.4 million barrels to 244 million barrels. Prior to this, stocks declined by 16.1 million barrels in six weeks. Similarly, distillate stocks increased by 1.8 million barrels to 163 million barrels.
Crude production, too, fell by 14,000 barrels per day to nine million barrels per day. Production reached a record 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th (2015) week.
Crude imports continued to fall, this time by 494 kb/d to 7.3 mb/d. In the past couple of weeks, imports have fallen by 1.1 mbpd, but from a high level.
Lastly, refinery utilization rose by a point to 91.4. Utilization has increased 5.3 points in the past eight weeks.
As stated last week, support at $34.50-$35 was a line in the sand. It held this week, with an increase in volume. There is room to rally on a daily chart.
The only potential problem is the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index is itching to rally – at least near term.
Currently net long 293.3k, down 8.7k.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-38/
• George.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Market Reports
* April 8, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
• George.
Click on "In reply to", for previous Reports.
Spot WTI Holds Crucial Support, Dollar Index To Act As Killjoy?
* April 8, 2016
Oil bulls must have breathed a heavy sigh of relief on Tuesday as crucial support held. But would the U.S. dollar poop the crude party?
On its way to collapsing 76 percent since June 2014 through the February 11th low, spot West Texas Intermediate crude ($37.53) broke many supports, one of which was $34.50-$35. That level was unsuccessfully tested several times in January and February before it broke out early March (Chart 1).
The WTI surged 63 percent in five weeks before getting rejected at its declining 200-day moving average on March 18th. It dropped 17 percent since that high (arrow in Chart 1), before finding support. Where did the buy orders start streaming in? At that afore-mentioned price point.
The $34.50-$35 level has been a price point around which bulls and bears have actively dueled going back to 2000.
On Tuesday, the crude tagged the lower Bollinger Band (daily), made a low of $35.24 and bounced. Right below was now-slightly rising 50-day moving average ($34.87). The next day, in a high-volume session, it rallied more. News of crude stocks helped.
In the week ended last Friday, crude stocks fell by 4.9 million barrels to 529.9 million barrels. Crude production fell, too – by 18,000 barrels per day, to nine mb/d. From the June 5th (2015) high of 9.61 mb/d, production has now fallen by over 600,000 b/d.
Consequently, in Chart 2, the green bars – a four-week rolling average of production – have come under pressure. That said, about four years ago, they began a parabolic rise.
As well, the red line in Chart 2 – a four-week rolling average of stocks – is at a new high.
Just prior to the afore-mentioned 4.9-million-barrel drop, crude inventory reached a record 534.8 million barrels, which was the highest since the all-time high 545 million barrels in 1929.
Medium-term, Chart 2 should continue to create a ceiling for crude price. Near-term, successful defense of that $34.50-$35 support is a positive. There is room to rally on a daily chart. With a slight twist.
The dollar can potentially create a problem.
After a nine-month, 25-percent rally into the March 2015 peak, the US dollar index (94.50) pretty much went sideways before trading along a declining trend line since last December (Chart 3).
On both daily and weekly basis, the dollar index remains oversold, particularly the former. For the past several sessions, it has traded around a May 2015 slightly-rising trend line, with several dojis. The index formed a death cross on March 31st, and has only gone sideways since.
The odds of a rally are growing. At least near-term. And that has the potential to negatively impact the price of crude.
Medium- to long-term, non-commercial futures traders will probably decide which way the dollar index is headed, hence by default the price of crude.
In Chart 4, the red line and green bars track each other very well. Back in March last year, these traders’ net longs peaked at 81,270 contracts. The dollar index peaked a week later. Net longs continued to shrink, and the index followed suit.
For the past three weeks, the green bars have gone sideways in the 17,000-plus range. This week’s reading can be a big tell (will be published later this afternoon).
If these traders are convinced that the afore-mentioned exhaustion signs on the dollar index’s daily chart are signaling an impending rally, they would probably begin to add to net longs. A rally in the dollar – notwithstanding the duration – is bad news to the crude.
http://www.hedgopia.com/spot-wti-holds-crucial-support-dollar-index-to-act-as-killjoy/
• George.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures
* April 2, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 29, 2016. Change is week-over-week.
Crude oil: Spot West Texas Intermediate crude has come under pressure since it was rejected at its 200-day moving average two weeks ago. On a weekly chart, there is plenty of room for the crude to continue heading lower.
Should the trend continue, 34.50 is the line in the sand. Spot WTI broke out of it nearly a month ago. If the breakout is real, there should be plenty of buy orders waiting to pounce on the opportunity. This price point is also about where the 50-day moving average lies.
On the fundamental front, the momentum in buildup of crude inventory continued in the week ended March 25th. Stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels to 534.8 million barrels – now up 52.3 million barrels in the past 12 weeks. Massive!
Bloomberg, by the way, reported that the all-time high was reached in 1929 when stocks hit 545 million barrels.
Crude imports fell by 636,000 barrels per day to 7.7 million b/d. There were other positives as well.
Both gasoline and distillate stocks fell – the former by 2.5 million barrels to 242.6 million barrels, and the latter by 1.1 million barrels to 161.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks have declined by 16.1 million barrels in the past six weeks.
Refinery utilization rose by two percentage points to 90.4 – a 10-week high.
Crude production, too, fell by 16,000 b/d to nine mb/d. Production reached a record 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th (2015) week.
Currently net long 302k, down 6.6k.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-37/
• George.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
COT - Commitments of Traders in Crude Oil Markets Reports
* April 1, 2016
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/index.php
• George.
Click on "In reply to", for previous Reports.
Natural Gas and UNG are poised for Another Recovery Upleg
By MPTrader
* March 28, 2016
The United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) has the right look and set-up for the initiation of a new upleg off of its March 4 low at 5.72.
The first upleg ended at the March 17 high of 6.88.
Current strength should challenge and hurdle the Jan-Mar resistance line, now at 6.60, which should trigger upside acceleration towards my next optimal target zone of 7.20-7.50.
Only a decline that breaks 6.24 will weaken the developing set-up.
https://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/
• George.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
Gold Miners Pause, Oil Drillers Lay Down More Rigs
By Greg Schnell
* March 28, 2016
Gold and Oil seem to be the hotbed of activity in the commodity space right now. While not unusual, both appear to have rolled over. You can watch the Commodity Countdown Webinar from Thursday, March 24th by clicking this link.
Gold mining stocks appear to have reversed. The MACD is very high and has rolled over for now. This would appear to be a consolidation of gains for now. Staying with the position of selling the miners but not shorting the miners back on March 7th, we are awaiting a new signal to get back in. Horizontal support around $20 did not hold, and the GDX:GLD ratio has broken down again.
Here is the weekly chart of $GOLD. This is currently making lower lows and lower highs every week. However, on this chart, we have a bull market signal on the RSI so we are expecting a strong move from the next rally higher.
$WTIC marked its top at the 200 DMA and at contract rollover. This has the potential to roll down and test the prior low. So far, this still has all the signals of a bear market and no bull market traits.
For the $SPX, whether you use the slope of the line from the closing value of the February low or the slightly more gradual uptrend shown in blue, the $SPX chart broke the recent trend late last week. By itself, this has very little significance, but in a bear market (according to the weekly RSI for $SPX), caution is warranted that this could be an intermediate top. We can also see that the rally got us back to the unchanged level for the year.
Here is the weekly RSI for the $SPX using the same setting as the Gold and Oil charts above.
Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA.
http://stockcharts.com/articles/commodities/2016/03/gold-miners-pause-oil-drillers-lay-down-more-rigs-webinar-highlights.html
• George.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
The world's largest oil driller just gave a very bearish presentation on the future of the industry
* March 27, 2016
The world's largest oil driller is expecting the industry to worsen in the second half of the year.
Schlumberger CEO Paal Kibsgaard gave a presentation at an industry conference Monday, and much of his outlook was very bearish.
He started with the fact that the oil industry is in "the deepest financial crisis on record" that is making it impossible for most oil and gas operators to stay profitable.
And Kibsgaard sees no meaningful improvement in drilling activity until 2017.
Oil prices, even after a rebound in recent weeks, are still down 61% from the pre-crash peak in June 2014.
Here's a highlight of what he said about the future of the industry (emphasis added):
This ‘hold-your-breath and-hope-for better-times-soon’ playbook has in the past allowed the industry to live through shorter-term demand downturns while waiting for business to return to normal. The major difference in the current industry situation is that we are unlikely to see oil prices returning to the $100 level because this downturn is not driven by lower demand or by external factors. It is instead an immediate result of OPEC’s decision to protect market share rather than oil price which clearly demonstrates that they still have a firm grip on the global E&P industry.
This shift is likely to have deep and long-term consequences for the industry similar to how limited access to reserves in the 1990s drove international and independent oil companies to pursue unconventional and deepwater resources.
Kibsgaard said the industry is now in the third and worst phase of this crisis:
The current downturn has now persisted for 17 months since the US land rig count peaked in October of 2014. Using this rig count as a proxy, we have seen three distinct phases as the downturn has deepened. The third and most severe phase is taking place within this current quarter with the global activity impact and rate of disruption reaching unprecedented levels, showing an industry in a full-scale cash crisis.
Kibsgaard also challenged the idea that the oil crash has forced oil-service companies to be more efficient, thereby lowering their costs amid a cash crunch. He said that rather, service companies have had to make concessions to lower costs to attract the few clients left as drilling activity died down.
And he thinks that when drilling picks up again, these cost-saving benefits will be reversed.
Kibsgaard said if non-OPEC production continues to fall, and demand rises — as the International Energy Agency is projecting for this year — oil prices should continue to rally.
Schlumberger now expects first-quarter sales to total $6.5 billion, missing analysts' forecast for $7 billion. Its shares were little changed in early trading.
http://www.businessinsider.com/schlumberger-ceo-presentation-march-21-2016-3
• George.
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