Replies to post #106783 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[dvdmogul]

Zeev this market is different in this regard, EK for instance has a business model that between Business cylces has been disrupted, that means that they will have been replaced in the dow before most realize whats happening. This market is akin to the changeover that took place when WANG and Control Data lost their luster and were replaced by Apple and a host of other companies. Seems like this is happening everywhere, new wholly underfollowed companies are performing and are knocking on the door, saying let me in! Others like EK are just playing a holding pattern trying to figure out how to stem the flow from the blood letting that is happening to their business.

This is a disruptive rotation of leadership, not a normal rebound in a business cycle. When this is true, the market will appear to be sending these mixed messages. We are in a bull market for emerging leaders and a bear market for those who have fallen and cant show the marketplace they've got what it takes to stand up.

Because the bear recalibrated everything, the winners and losers, the trading community lacks clarity about the change of guard under way.

[Paul Shread]

Zeev,

How far back did your study on new Dow highs go?

Thanks,

Paul

[techanalyst1]

Well..............

I don't know Zeev. Charts look good.

Maybe it's because this bear was so long and stocks so far down from their highs.

I don't know if we can even count 52 week highs as THAT bullish anyway..... used to be that 52 week highs were all time highs. Now even if IBM makes a 52 week high it's really only going right above the december high. In december that was far off since April highs were much higher. It doesn't have to do much to make a new high now..... which would mean that it's only slightly over the Nov/Dec high and that would probably be within your time frame.

Anyway........... msft isn't participating. Not sure what that means, but it sure is odd to see dell at multi year highs and msft down.

On a "fundamental" basis though......... if stocks go up, alot of this pension mess gets cleaned up and that will help states. And if we also get some selling with gains that aren't offset with previous losses, that improves tax reciepts next year too.

And if we get people feeling better, who knows? They might actually start spending and we get that much anticipated rebound everyone thought would never come.

And with the shorts betting against it, the market might go farther than we expect.



TA