Wade - PEIX... technically speaking, this can retrace to $15 at 20 DMA and would be 3 down days after 10 up days following the trend of 33% down days after X up days.
HOWEVER... REX is reporting before the bell. It is likely REX will have blowout earnings and this will cause the entire ethanol sector to spike into a new uptrend tomorrow morning. BUT... it's possible that REX will disappoint on volume of sales (although margins will crush it) because REX is located in the midwest and they need rail cars to deliver product and there are no rail cars now. If they disappoint like this - then PEIX will get it's 3rd down day to $15 or may overshoot to $14.60 as wade suggests and that would be a GREAT BUY because PEIX is located on the west coast and they deliver their ethanol locally - no rail cars needed. Because of this advantage - PEIX is the best ethanol play right now. All that being said - I'm hopeful REX won't disappoint and we'll be off to the races and at $18-$20 by weeks-end. I'm also long PEIX calls and also long AMTX. Thought I made a brilliant move selling PLUG at 10 to invest in ethanol but after PLUG went up 50% today, there's more pressure on PEIX and AMTX to perform. Super upset I didn't re-enter PLUG below $6. Was eyeing it but was fully invested in ethanol.
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