Replies to post #106592 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[jandch]

>>>The above scenario of supply and demand can be factored into not only real estate but about anything tangible from beanie babies to antiques. Big problems ahead for the US. You can count on it.<<<<

Just curious, did you make these theories and number crunching of populations up by yourself or is this from some economy expert somewhere?

[Sam_0]

Joe
think Real estate is in a bubble right now. Sure we are not going to see 75% declines like the stock bubble but 20% declines will be just as much and even more painful to the economy.


Generation to a generation spans what... twenty to thirty years or ...? Then in your view, when would real estate start to cycle down again, that's the question in my mind?
The above scenario of supply and demand can be factored into not only real estate but about anything tangible from beanie babies to antiques. Big problems ahead for the US. You can count on it.

[TJ Parker]

"The generation after the boomers is only 70 mil. 70 mil chasing after the real property assets of 80 mil. Big supply, smaller demand = lower prices."

hmm. but shouldn't we expect boomers to live longer?

[augieboo]

"I think Real estate is in a bubble right now. Sure we are not going to see 75% declines like the stock bubble but 20% declines will be just as much and even more painful to the economy."

I think that's more than a bit doom&gloomish.

Sure, real estate is in a bubble-like situation in various areas of the country. But you can still buy most of the middle 3/4 of the country at prices those of us on the coasts would consider dirt cheap.

Second, when a RE bubble bursts it has nowhere near the comprehensive effect that the stock bubble bursting has had. I know, because here in N. California we have another RE bubble about every ten to twelve years. So long as you can make your mortgage payments it doesn't really matter in the short term how much paper value your house loses -- it's still shelter, and, worse comes to worst you can always raise chickens in the garage and grow veggies in the yard. {g}

Sure, if you can't make your payments then you are farked, but whether you can make the payment or not is independent of the paper value of the home.

JMDO, etc.