SARS how bad it will become or not become centers on China and will it breakloose in its' rural provinces.
60% of China's 1.3 billion people live in the rural areas where healthcare and the ability get a breakout in control is quite a bit more difficult.
I read that where China has quarantined one area by having to surround it.
The new cases dropped to 48 in Beijing but in the provinces it is hard to know what is happening.
WHO says they still have hope they can drive it back "into the box"(i guess they mean box like Pandora's Box).
From my view the worst possible case is that it spreads through China's rural provinces and crosses the border into Russia where we know their healthcare system is in tatters(Russia's first case occurred at a China/Russia border Hotel).
The good points is that it only has a 6-foot range of infective ability via the air due to the weight of droplets, but on the otherhand it lasts at least 4 hours on surfaces, and can survive 24 hours in places more to its liking.( another good point is they have yet to confirm a case that was passed to another person from someone that had not yet displayed symptoms)
The other key point is what percentage of those that get SARS are supertransmitters.
A U.S. CDC official states that we have thus far been lucky.
But same CDC official says EVERTHING depends on China and it's NOT breaking loose into its' rural areas.
Ever since Wu Li took over the SARS emergency in China, China has been rightfully draconian in their moves to stop SARS; but if it gets loose in the outer provinces this could get bad.
In Iraq, why on the subject of diseases, the local physicians have stated that a cholera epidemic is about to break loose in Basra and likely in Baghdad also, if lab tests confirm the cholera like illness occuring are in fact cholera.
Cholera, a treatable disease IF you have the needed tools to fight it, but they state they have nothing to fight a breakout.
Cholera killed 1.9 million globally last year mostly all infants and young children.
Why we are on this not so nice subject Tuberculosis kills 2 million a year and is ESCALATING due to resistant strains having developed.
Malaria is also revealing resistant strains.
One thing that we do know about SARS whether it breaks out or not is it far more serious than the common influenza, regardless of the U.S. non kill rate(where they feel the strain is milder than what is now at work).
The common flu kills 0.1%, SARS estimates are now running from between 7 -11%(the Flu of 1918 was only 2.5% mortality).
Also another 10 or more percent that don't die are left with severe lung damage.gd
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