If generic Copaxone is priced at, say, a 30% discount to the branded 20mg product, third-party payers will surely put it in a lower copayment tier than the thrice-weekly product or the branded 20mg product. This will make it hard for Teva to switch as many patients to the thrice-weekly product as the Decision Resources survey anticipates, and it will encourage reverse switching back to the generic.
When the dust settles, if there is only one generic product on the market and it is priced at a 30% discount to the branded 20mg product, I expect the generic to achieve roughly a 40% share of the prescription volume for all of the US Copaxone products.
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