Replies to post #175695 on Biotech Values

[ciotera]

greatly underestimating the influx of treatment candidates

Or you are greatly overestimating this influx. If your bet is on the large undiagnosed population, then it might be instructive to look at the experience of several countries that have installed active surveillance systems (e.g., France, Japan, Canada, Australia, and UK most recently) and are still not breaking above ~60% diagnosed rates and that's after a decade or more of running those programs. It's not very easy to unlock this opportunity, it takes investment and it takes time. I would not count on it to provide 200K+ treatment starts per year.

[jbog]

i think most will opt for treatment even if asymptomatic (i know i would)

The vast majority of the HCV patients have other needs besides seeking treatment, such as getting their next fix.

Now if Abbie would have added another pill such as oxycodone be included in the mix they would conquer the market.