Replies to post #175691 on Biotech Values

[GrthzGd]

Am enjoying Barry Werth's new Vertex follow up book, 'The Antidote.' Can't wait to get to the part about Incivek/Teleprevir!

[DewDiligence]

GILD/ABBV/ENTA—Telaprevir peaked and rapidly declined because the side effects were nasty and brutal; the dosing regimen was rigorous; and something far better could be seen on the horizon. With the newest treatments: side effect are minimal, dosing is simple and there is not much better coming. There is no reason to expect the trajectory of the newer treatments to be similar to that of telaprevir.

I fully agree. However, one poster who isn’t convinced is ‘ciotera’—see, for instance, #msg-98473458 and #msg-99082821. This is what makes a market and is one reason I think ENTA still has a lot of room on the upside. Regards, Dew

[DewDiligence]

Re: Long HCV tail in supply-constrained market

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/biotech/2014/05/sovaldi-veterans-affairs-hepatitis-c-gilead-gild.html

By triaging patients, healthcare providers can absorb the patient load—and Sovaldi's cost—over 10 to 15 years, said Gilead President John Milligan.

Whether it takes 20 years, as ENTA’s Jay Luly recently said (#msg-101666855) or it takes 10-15 years, as GILD’s John Milligan says above, all-oral HCV regimens are not going to exhibit an Incivek-like boom & bust pattern. All such talk should immediately cease, IMHO.