Replies to post #21850 on ETF SWING & DAY TRADING

[Little Chico]

This looks like a good contrary indicator. I'm holding a small short position, so this is heartening.

Chico

[LP2]

lpdcb--bullish

[rcptrader]

BEARs versus BULLS

Start date: Feb 25, 2006
Short term bias (days to weeks)
BEARS:
1 Pokersam
2 smooth_shot
3 Little Chico

BULLS:
1 rcptrader
2 cad92648
3 Keith K
4 denmo83
5 CaribbeanJim
6 FreeMarkets
7 plexxus
8 2X-Be-Me
9 positiontrader
10 lpdcb

Neutrals:
1 ????

[omandan]

rcp
Put omandan on the bull list.
dan

[zzz2maro]

BULL or BEAR Hmmmmm. OCT thru 1st wk JAN market rallied. Jan to present = sideways consolidation. So that means in terms of "days to weeks" I'm NEUTRAL till it breaks one way or another. Yes, let me be the 1st to be on the NEUTRAL list. By the way if too many bulls are on the list that's an automatic drop in the market. Da boys love to steal the majoritys money.

[Keith K]

Just to be clear, I am bullishly bearish on my neutral stance.

[Walkingshadow]

Hi rcptrader,

I'll put in my $0.01 (spent the other one....)

I am bullish on the QQQQ and NDX, also the COMPX (I see evidence of bullish divergence in the latter).

I don't buy the rising wedge story. Interesting lines on charts, but the supporting evidence just isn't there. Instead, I see buy signals and evidence that QQQQ and NDX are consolidating and will move higher soon. Specifically, there has been a break above chart resistance that was tested repeatedly; now that resistance at $40.15 has become support and has been successfully defended:



On the other hand, I think we are due for a pullback in the Dow, and I think we will see rotation from the Dow into the techs. The Dow has been outperforming the NDX over the last month or more, and that looks due to change shortly:




So I see a pullback in the Dow to test the support level shown below (10,940), and meanwhile QQQQ/NDX will rally. That latter will be helped by the SOX, which has been out to lunch lately, but now shows signs of stabilization and reversal to the upside (early signs there, to be sure):



Here's the SOX chart, which I believe shows the SOX is finally stirring from a deep sleep:




And lastly, I see evidence of bullish divergence in the COMPX. Essentially, the NDX and COMPX blasted above chart resistance to start off the year and have been consolidating in a very healthy way ever since. Soon that consolidation will end, a move to higher ground will ensue, and there will be rotation out of the Dow. That, together with the SOX finally seeing the light, will drive the tech indexes to significantly higher ground. Once the Dow pulls back to chart support, I think it will chase the techs, but all are heading for a medium-term top in the next month or two (hard to time this with any accuracy yet). For the Dow, I make that top to be 11,500. After that, from sometime in mid- to late-spring right into the fall, the bears will be dancing in the streets IMHO.

Hope this all works... it's been a very long time since I've posted here.

.... all JMVHO, of course.

WS