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Fillmoepro

03/13/14 10:03 AM

#190190 RE: obiterdictum #190113

Obi, you're right that this is only speculation on my part along with Maleboon. I never said he got out of FnF. He could have orchestrated the tank to reposition himself to accumulate more shares. In that 1.5 hrs of free falling I would be very surprised that he was holding the whole time. I do not believe retail alone could not have caused that crash. Since you have access to Pershings quarterly info in a couple months lets go back and look to see if there was any involvement by Ackman.
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malebaboon

03/13/14 10:42 AM

#190268 RE: obiterdictum #190113

Obit and Fillmoepro -

My opinion - this is WAR over billions (even trillions) of dollars in assets. I think Ackman is at war, and is on nobody's side but his own.

I believe that Ackman was somehow substantially materially involved in the drop, whether by selling a significant portion, or shorting, or something of that nature. He's the one with skills and shares and relationships and motivations to make something like this happen. But going a little further, yes, I think he sold a substantial portion of his holdings to take profits on the run-up, allow his short friends to cover on the volume, and now try to keep the price low while he buys in again, perhaps even increasing his stake. You can see that if he owned 110 million shares at $2.20 and sold, say, 35 million at around $6 he would basically be riding on a new position of 75 million 'free' shares now.
So, in sum, I believe Ackman sold shares, but I also believe he remains bullish on the long-term outlook and was simply hedging his bets. That is what a hedge fund does. :)

Just very interesting that he wouldn't comment when everyone else was, and that he has been so bullishly outspoken : a bear in a bull's skin.

Obit - I really appreciate your insistence on sticking to known facts, but trying to make sense of inexplicable occurrences is of great interest to me personally, and part of scientific investigation is also asking interesting questions and positing possibilities - creative 'thought experiments' as Einstein called them. Tesla would build his machines in his mind before ever picking up a wrench. Asking questions and tossing out possibilities is part of discovery as well as always asking for 'just the facts'. Respect to you.

Ackman doesn't want to make false public statements and tip his investment hand, so he makes no comment. Just saying.

All IMHO.

A little digging could make an interesting story for someone. :)