Iran in the heart of Eastern Triangle
By Parviz Esmaeili
TEHRAN – Recent developments in the Middle East, particularly the victory of Hamas in the Palestinian parliamentary election and the Iraqi national election, neither of which turned out as the United States had hoped, proved that the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution was right in warning the West about its strategic mistake in overlooking the political depth and significance of Iran in the region and the Islamic world.
The illogical and discriminatory approach adopted by the West in regard to Iran’s nuclear activities, which is in practice a violation of all legal and peaceful international protocols, has given a forewarning to developing nations and even some developed countries that Iran will not be the last country that will be subjected to U.S. bullying and that this could indeed happen to them.
The consensus among independent politicians and experts across the globe on the key role of producers and distributors of energy as the most important international powerbrokers in the decades to come and the declaration by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran currently holds one-sixth of the entire world’s energy resources (oil, gas, and nuclear materials) has made some of the United States’ traditional rivals as well as some other consumer countries realize that they need Iran at this point in time.
These issues prove that Iran can rightly be called the starting point of the future world. From this perspective, we can study the Eastern Triangle, comprising Russia, China, and India, which has focused on Iran.
Apart from Russia, which has numerous concerns, China and India alone are home to over one third of the world’s population and face a dilemma in regard to Iran and energy.
Meanwhile, the director of the Russian atomic energy agency Rosatom, Sergei Kiriyenko, has just arrived in Tehran. The Russians undoubtedly realized during the second round of nuclear talks with Iran in Moscow that they took a hasty approach in voting against Iran during the February session of the IAEA Board of Governors in Vienna.
The unclear proposal that Moscow hastily presented did not focus on certain details about supplying the raw materials required for a joint uranium enrichment project, the location of the enrichment site, and the financial and technological shares of the two sides. It also lacked an explanation about the 3000-kilometer distance between the Iranian uranium conversion facilities and the enrichment center in Moscow, which is a violation of IAEA regulations on the safety of transportation of nuclear fuel and materials.
The Russians currently have a contract with Iran to deliver the nuclear fuel required by the Bushehr nuclear power plant, a commitment they have not lived up to. Therefore, the best way to test Russia’s honesty in the proposed joint nuclear fuel program is to see if it sticks to its current commitments and, in other words, brings the Bushehr nuclear power plant on stream.
The Russians have not followed a consistent policy over the time that Iran’s nuclear dossier has been on the IAEA Board agenda, which, along with the fact that it followed the United States during the February IAEA Board session in voting to report Iran to the UN Security Council, are serious weak points for the country.
It seems that the Russians have yet to realize that the total amount of energy reserves of Russia and Iran accounts for more than one third of all the world’s energy reserves.
If Russia supported Iran instead of the United States, it would be the most profitable approach for Moscow at the present time and in the future.
In addition, the Chinese deputy foreign minister is also currently in Iran for nuclear discussions.
Although it seems that Beijing does not intend to act independently, especially of Moscow, the interests of this country with a huge population, which needs strategic energy security, have made China more sensitive about maintaining its ties with Iran.
Beijing knows that its nuclear energy policy toward Iran is different from the policies being pursued by Moscow and Washington.
Russia does not import fossil fuel energy from Iran. Rather it is Iran’s rival in this regard. However, China imports 17 percent of its oil from Iran, and, even under the current circumstances, it is not willing to forgo the $100 billion gas supply contract it has signed with Iran.
Even if we did not consider the 12,000-kilometer distance between China and the United States, Tehran would be a more trustworthy choice than Washington.
China is also concerned that if it joins the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council in dividing the cake of power, it will have to face an escalating energy crisis in future decades.
India has to choose as well. At the present it has adopted a yo-yo style of diplomacy, on the hand seeking gas supplies from Iran and on the other hand trying to make the U.S. happy. It leans sometimes in this direction and sometimes in the other direction.
In its regional rivalry with China, India can not remain aloof to the Beijing-Tehran energy corridor, and sooner or later it will be compelled to choose between Iran and the United States, a choice between the present and the future.
To sum it all up, in light of the current situation, Iran is the heart of the delta of power in the Eastern world. If Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi want to adopt a policy that that does not maintain the heart of this triangle, they will lose both today and tomorrow, since Iran will definitely be an energy center and superpower in the decades to come.
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