The key is the balance of payments. Weakness in the dollar should reign that one in, but I am not sure than $1.18 will be enough with the US economy still the strongest out there (except China and they refuse to float their currency). If we continue with trade deficits in the $40 B monthly, the next target would probably be $1.40 to the Euro and that should set the stage for a spike in gold above $400. I don't think that is extremely likely right now, but surely possible.
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