Replies to post #175237 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: Generic Copaxone

[Teva’s] slides do document how high that hurdle is, and may be the reason behind MNTA shares' underperformance in recent days.

Perhaps, but this argument is somewhat counter-intuitive. The higher the bar for FDA approval of generic Copaxone, the more bullish it is for MNTA insofar as a high bar raises the probability that MNTA will have a long tenure as the sole US generic. Craig Wheeler has asserted this point on several occasions.

Hence, if the document in question is indeed the cause of the recent MNTA sell-off, the investors who sold have either not been closely following what MNTA is saying or they don’t believe what MNTA is saying.

[genisi]

Perhaps MNTA shares' recent underperformance may be due to surveys of the MS market showing Copaxone trice-weekly launch is going well and that Teva's estimation that they can switch more than 30% before patent expires and up to 50% this year, sounds more realistic.