Replies to post #175236 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

GILD’s insider sales in 2012, which you cite as a reason to ignore the insider sales now, were made before GILD knew how great the Sovaldi data would turn out to be. So I would submit that your counter-argument to my argument about insider selling lacks teeth.

[DewDiligence]

GILD—You may be right as to the p/e, but I would say that it is because the uncertainty about the HCV business a few years out.

It depends on whom you ask. In my opinion, GILD’s HCV business will plateau at a high level and stay there for several years, while GILD’s HIV business is at-risk for being halved or worse as soon as 2017.

[Rocky3]

You may be right as to the p/e, but I would say that it is because the uncertainty about the HCV business a few years out.

It looks like buy-side people agree with me as to current price weakness. See AF from Friday: http://www.thestreet.com/story/12529951/1/the-bull-case-for-gilead-amidst-recent-hep-c-sales-cliff-worries.html

Obviously this has significant effects on ABBV/ENTA and others in the HCV market over the longer term (and maybe not so long-term, if prior history is followed).

I have been impressed with Olysio launch too. Will be interesting to follow. Starting to look closer at JNJ. May be safer way to play several new launches out there.