Replies to post #175207 on Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

Some other sell side projections for GILD total sales, HIV (and HCV):

Credit Suisse (from 02/10 increase of sale and earnings)-

Total GILD sales for 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017:
$15.988B, $20.548B, $23.728B, $24,851

HIV sales est. for same: $9.923B, $10.568B, $11.245B, $11.395B

HCV sales est.: $3.925B, $7.893B, $10.350B, $11.333B

Earnings per share: $3.56, $5.65, $7.09, $7.91

Goldman Sachs (from 02/06 - no update on sales and earnings estimates, and no breakout of HIV):

Total sales for same periods: $14.455B, $18.444B, $21.936B, $24.426

HCV sales est.: $3.146B, $6.631B, $9.902B, $12.059B

Non-HCV sales est.: $11.409B, $11.813B, $12.038B, $12.367B

Earnings per share: $3.17, $4.92, $6.33, $7.67

Just more info for the computer. I wonder when the numbers will actually change. As you can see, Wells was already much higher than the others, which are under $4B for Sovaldi for '14. We shall see.

[ciotera]

RE: GILD

Tivicay is not the threat, it's the dolutegravir+epzicom fixed dose combination that can put a dent into their HIV business. Given that it's launching later this year and assuming my dire predictions for a short lived revenue spike in HCV come true, then sometime in 2015 GILD will be hit by a double whammy of declining HCV and HIV revenues (in the US). So yes, I'm very skeptical of the sales-side projections. My money is still in ENTA but not for long.