Wells has not officially changed anything. Set price target at 92-96 on 02/05 after earnings. Same with earnings projection of $4.72 for '14 earnings. They have not officially adjusted sales or earnings projections. The $4.72/sh was based on $5.5B of sales for HCV drugs in '14 (much higher than most estimates). It has HCV drugs over $8B in '16 and earnings at $6.74 and HCV over $10B in '18 and earnings at $7.81. Of course there are many other issues since non-HCV drugs go from $12.5B to $14.6B to $13.9B over same periods.
Me - sure, I am upping my expectation every week. If sales are over $8B, I would expect earnings over $6.50/sh, up from $2.04/sh in '13. If sales over $10B, $8/sh looks possible. And with sales at $15B, $12+/sh is possible. Since I think that $8/sh is pretty conservative, it allow for significantly more growth in next couple years, I am comfortable with a 20 p/e, or $160/sh. If we do get the $12+/sh, more growth is a lot less certain, and the p/e might go down to Biomaven's 15, but that still is $180/sh.
JMO. Others should voice their opinion. And yes, I did buy more today. Getting to a "SEPR" sized position.
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