Replies to post #174657 on Biotech Values

[jq1234]

MS HCV Survey:

A few important points besides typical speculation on US HCV "long tail" vs "short cliff" argued on this board:

1. Patients composition currently:

Consistent with Gilead data, 87% of the patients treated with Sovaldi were GT1: Our physicians indicated
that 61% of the patients treated were GT1 naïve and 26% were GT1 experienced (with the naïve patients getting mostly 12 weeks of treatment and the experienced patients split between 12 and 24 weeks). Given what we have seen from interferon TRxs (Sovaldi is dosed with interferon for GT1 infection) we believe this data to be fairly accurate.

2. ABBV/ENTA market share vs GILD approximately 28% vs 72% excluding other players:

Given its comparable efficacy, we would expect Abbvie to take some share. Just as Victrelis took share in a market dominated by Incivek, we see a similar dynamic between Abbvie and Gilead. The results of our survey confirm such a split with physicians expecting Gilead to maintain a 67-69% share and Abbvie taking a ~25% share of the market.