BH, I don't know how Jason reached his conclusion. I don't blindly follow what anyone else concludes when I'm capable of doing some calculations myself.
I initially took Jason's statement that he didn't have to increase the number of shares in his model to mean what others were posting here... that this new deal didn't increase dilution. I haven't looked that closely at Jason's current and previous valuation models, so perhaps today's news didn't affect what he had already factored in.
After doing the calculations myself, based on how this deal was described in the press release, I concluded it DOES increase dilution by 37.5M shares overall compared to the earlier funding regarding the exercise of the warrants. I was mainly just trying to get that point across, and possibly getting too wrapped up in it (i.e., the long posts). I was also pushed for time and rushed through the calculations, thereby making an error at the end, which has now been corrected.
My analysis of short-term prices is as follows: random. I'm not a short-term trader.
No real way to predict how investors will interpret news in the short-term. Long-term, I think it will result in higher share prices as investors realize the company has enough capital to operate through 2014, with additional capital lined up for hitting milestones. That seems to be the main concern for many shareholders.
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