I don't know if its very possible to forecast what metals will do this year. Theres so much of the game that seems to involve manipulation, a bigger picture , the global currency wars... the miners and metals are not like 'normal' investments. They are pieces of the global chess board played by the world powers.
I am inclined to think that the metals and miners go up and down not because of traders or investors, but because the governments are manipulating the prices. including the soaring rallies,gold soaring to 1900. ,gold getting hammered down in April last year. The miners rally in July and august, only to be taken all the way back to the bottom again, gold taken from 1180 to 1440 and back to 1180,like it was nothing. They can do it over and over as long as the system is kept running.
I expected to see metals reach this rally point,(1320-1360) and anticipate a reversal/pullback soon. I expected miners not to rally this high without a pullback. so I'm a little surprised to see an extra push higher. GDX is a tricky wave structure to count on the daily chart. The weekly GDX is a bit easier to count the 5 waves going up. But even on the weekly GDX chart, its looking extended too much here.
I might get a sense, that if we see GDX continue higher even more next week, that gets GDX into very overbought territory, but it also happens with almost no pullback wave at all.
I would be a little worried about that, as it gets into the rally top zone 27-28-30 area, that might be a zone of completion for the whole rally, in one wave bubble. There ought to be at least an ABC pattern, to consider as a corrective wave. to target 30-32 top zone. or target 27-28 top zone, but in a 3 wave pattern, ABC, wave(A) should be complete now. There should be a pullback now (wave B) to target 23 area (22-24) and the wave C targets the top zone. (27-30) That kind of pattern is at least something recognizable in Elliott wave structure.
Some kind of ABC pattern.... (A) to target 25-28 area, (B) pullback to target 23 area, and (wave C) to target 28-32 area.
The wave structure is evolving as days and weeks go by, and if you try to see it developing, this kind of pattern is a good ballpark zone to watch ,but that means the current wave ought to be topping now or soon. . Its a place I would be looking to trim a little at least.
especially any individual miners that went soaring a lot farther, like Agnico eagle (AEM). Goldcorp(GG) is looking overextended , I would be cautious about those getting bubbled up. and then dumped. people are eager to jump back into the beaten down miners. Its possible they are sheeple being lured to the fleecing .
I just think, that this whole sector was marked for short attack in the last few years, and that game is still going on. If that's the case, this rally ought to play out very similar to the last rally we had in July/August 2013. followed by another big downwave. If this pattern is to be broken,so that we start seeing a great new bullish trend begin again for miners, it will need to be Proved by the next several weeks price action ,making higher highs ,higher lows, etc.... I will be shocked to see that happen this year. and until it does, I think the technical strategy has to be to sell something at these top zones .
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