Replies to post #6650 on AmeraMex International Inc. (AMMX)

[MikTrader]

Great post Sterling! Love those calculations and the possibilities that are ahead of us with AMMX! I have been in contact with the company and I just keep getting more and more excited about our future here. :-)

[pmunch]

Very solid DD on AMMX value !! Love ot

[MarqueeGemFinder]

Stervc with your fine valuation - AMMX-

Thank you for your valuable insight here. Huge under the radar GEM here and it's a beautiful organic move here that with hope, shall only get prettier. Thank you again for your penchant for intelligent discourse.

All the best
M

[stayfocused]

I agree 100% that the potential here is huge and if management deliver on any one of these contracts then we will be golden, but I prefer to err on the side of caution (pps projection included) until they do deliver because as we all know, OTC stocks are big on promise but microscopic on execution, and also having a little knowledge of Nigeria, I know things can get very difficult as $$$ signs change peoples perspective! Lets hope this is 'the one' that breaks the mold! GLTUA @ AMMX :-)

[BERKSHIRE AGENT]

Stervc thanks for your in depth analysis and pps valuation. I truly believe we are sitting on an extremely rare opportunity. Looking forward to the rest of 2014 and perhaps beyond if not sooner.

[biglued1]

Stervc, great post. However, I think you (and others) are being too generous on the $270M contract. AMMX will not be awarded the entire contract amount. They would receive only a portion of that amount. Many other companies, through which AMMX will be working in conjunction with, will also receive money from the contract. I"m probably way off, but I'm thinking AMMX would received somewhere between 30-50M. Did anyone else understand it would work this way?

[kingclever]

WOW this is huge!!!

[david444]

Reasons to invest in AMMX - has potential to hit dollarland

- No dilution. Management taking restricted shares as salary. shows belief of Management in stock price
- 30 year old company in Chico, CA. got hit during the recent recession. diversified operations to international countries, and is now making a comeback. generating contracts in latin america, across US, and potentially huge projects in Africa. AMMX generated $20 to $30 million pre-recession though with less profit margins.
- low float - 230 million. OS - 520.1 million. restricted - 288 million. (out of the restricted shares, management holds 180 million)
- positive cash flow of $817K per 2013 Annual financials released today. Inventory is $955K, Accounts Receivable is $748K
- No note receivables
- In 2013, revenue increased by 79 percent & net income increased by 362 percent compared to 2012 financials.
- During the first 3 months of 2014, company has already announced contracts worth $2.727 million. compare it to 2013 annual revenues of $6.1 million.
- huge pending projects(projects in the range of $270 million, $500 million, $40 million etc) in Africa. even if AMMX can secure one of these projects, we are looking at a huge increase in PPS.
- high probability of securing the $270 million Niger project. during the recent conference call, Lee Hamre(CEO) mentioned that Niger PM visited AMMX facilities in Chico, CA. Lee made 30+ trips to Africa establishing relationships, and building the ground work during the past 5 years. IMO, it's not a matter of 'if', but it's about 'when' we hear the news of AMMX securing this $270 million contract.
- CEO is highly confident of securing the $270 million Niger deal. should get more details during next week.
- stock is trending up, and is establishing support at key levels.
- company is issuing PRs on a regular basis. A very transparent company in terms of communications with share holders - conference calls, regular PRs etc.
- As MarqueeGemFinder pointed out, with the new EPA 2015 changes, AMMX is rightly situated to take advantage of the huge demand for US domestic core operations for handlers and equipment upgrades.
- strong possibility that AMMX will hit dollar land in 2014. Once AMMX secures one big project, AMMX would have huge cash flow, and I think the barrage of other huge contracts would follow.

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Total Number of Shares Issued and Outstanding: 520.1 million
Float : 230 million, Restricted : 280 million (out of the restricted shares, management holds 180 million shares)

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true valuation of AMMX based on 2013 financials released today. (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ameramex-international-reports-end-financials-140000619.html )

The company reported revenue of approximately $6.1 million with gross profit of $2.6 million compared to revenue of approximately $3.4 million with gross profit of $2.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2012.

Borrowing from stervc's post - With AMMX, it is already known where such Sector/Industry that AMMX would trade. This particular Industry already has a growth rate (P/E Ratio) for the stocks that exists within such Industry. Logically, AMMX would be classified to exist and trade within the Industrial Equipment & Components Industry within the Industrial Goods Sector of which already has a 31.00 for its P/E Ratio as indicated below:
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/621conameu.html

$2,600,000 Net Profit Margin ÷ 520,100,00 Shares (OS) = .0049 EPS
0.0049 EPS x 31.00 P/E Ratio = $0.15 AMMX Per Share Valuation

Conservatively, even if we apply a P/E ratio of 10, share price should be 0.0049 EPS x 10.00 P/E Ratio = $0.49 AMMX Per Share Valuation (4.9 cents)

As of today AMMX is trading around 3 cents, which is still a bargain when compared to valuation based on 2013 financials.

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During the first 3 months of 2014, AMMX announced contracts that are worth $2.727 million. If AMMX goes at the same pace, we are looking at revenues > $10 million at end of year 2014.

In 2013, AMMX had $2.6 million profit on a $6.1 million revenue - which is a 42.6% margin. Assuming we have similar margins in 2014, for a $10million revenue, we are looking at a profit of $4.26 million.

For a $4.26 profit margin, valuation of AMMX would be
$4,260,000 Net Profit Margin ÷ 520,100,00 Shares (OS) = .0081 EPS
0.0081 EPS x 31.00 P/E Ratio = $0.25 AMMX Per Share Valuation

Conservatively, even if we apply a P/E ratio of 10, share price should be 0.0081 EPS x 10.00 P/E Ratio = $0.08 AMMX Per Share Valuation

These are very extreme conservative valuations.

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When we get the $270 million Niger contract, refer to stervc's valuations of hitting $1.41 per share (conservative) to $4.20 per share.

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AmeraMex International Reports Year-End Financials: Revenue Increased 79 Percent and Net Income Increased 362 Percent(Fri 10:00AM EDT)
AmeraMex International Receives a $648,000 Rental Equipment Agreement(Wed, Mar 26)
AmeraMex International Receives Equipment Orders Totaling $925,000(Tue, Mar 18)
AmeraMex International Projects Revenue Growth of 71 Percent and Continued Profitability for 2013(Fri, Feb 14)
AmeraMex International Receives Equipment Orders Totaling $404,000(Mon, Feb 10)
AmeraMex International Hosts Shareholder Conference Call(Mon, Feb 3)
AmeraMex International Receives $250,000 Order From Central America(Tue, Jan 21)
AmeraMex International Receives $500,000 Order From Guatemalan Port(Tue, Jan 14)
AmeraMex International Names Kevin Atkin Its Chief Financial Officer(Tue, Jan 7)