Thanks for the detailed post, Beamer, but I don't think you answered my question.
I asked how much market penetration should Intel have at this point. You provided a series of roadmaps that shows BayTrail in 2013 and some amorphous plans for 2014, which has now culminated in the lineup of products that include Merrifield.
But I have to ask where BayTrail is today, given that it was a 2013 product. It was aimed at tablets, but I can probably count on one hand the market share of Intel-based tablets. Meanwhile, Intel's share of smartphones is even worse.
That's really abysmal. I figure, if you have a five-year-plan for market leadership, you should achieve equality with the market at around year 3 or 4. Then you can use aggressive pricing and market strategy to get key, high-profile design wins. That in turn will serve as the stepping stone for leaping into a leadership position, which is what Intel is (and should be) aiming for.
But with the execution hiccups (including that Meego boondoggle), Intel maybe slipped a year. And that's really bad news because it increases the risk of the market shifting, thus closing the window of opportunity for the roadmaps you presented. Now Intel has to scramble and try to make up for lost time.
Bottom line is that I don't think Intel has any chance of making a significant impact in mobile until maaaybe the 2nd half of this year. And until that happens, Intel will have to rely on PC and servers to carry them through. Which means INTC stock price will go nowhere (neither up nor down) for the foreseeable future.
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