Replies to post #159061 on Value Microcaps Motherboard

[researcher59]

CPSS will probably grow in 2014, but more slowly.

[SSKILLZ1]

Wade (On CPSS)

Asset quality continues to get worse with rising delinquencies. I thought the quality of this quarters earnings at the .21 level was not great either. Provision for contingent liabilities, had and unexpected 1.8 million gain in the numbers rather then it's usual loss, which boosted eps which probably not be sustainable. I'll Pass CPSS, is at fair value in the 8's in my opinion, and shouldn't go higher, I'm also concerned if earnings will be down in q1 from q4 levels. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.

[abh3vt]

CPSS and seasonality. This was addressed on the last CC Q3 FY13. Transcript here from Seeking Alpha:

Our next question is from Kyle Joseph of Stephens.

Kyle M. Joseph - JMP Securities LLC, Research Division
I wanted to touch base on originations. The Q-on-Q originations pacing, the slow down a little bit in the third quarter? I just wanted to get your thoughts. Are you guys still comfortable getting up to that $100 million a month level and was there some seasonality there?

Charles E. Bradley - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
There's certainly a little seasonality there, as I mentioned. Usually, you grow from late January until sort of end of May and then you sort of try to hang on. And sometimes, you can pick a little growth in September, October and then you drop off a little bit, November, December. So in some ways, it's almost very predictably -- predictable, in a sort of seasonality point of view. Having said that, as long as the economy overall doesn't have some weird thing happen in terms of the government doing this, that and the other thing, we would expect a lot of substantial growth in that first quarter and that will tell the tale on whether we hit the 100-plus kind of monthly origination run rate next year. Where we sit today, given that we were busily hiring and training marketing folks and staffing up originations and collections to handle it, certainly, our projection or our thought is that we will get there.

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First quarter will be a big tell for the year. I think its more relevant to look at y/y comps rather than sequential, given the business and seasonality. Yes growth in topline will slow, but should still be quite strong. Here are some key stats to note and monitor going forward:

Operating and Performance Data ($ in millions) 
                                                                      At and for the       At and for the 
                                                                      Three months ended   Twelve months ended 
                                                                      December 31,         December 31, 
                                                                      2013       2012      2013       2012 
         Contracts purchased                                          $ 173.41   $150.83   $ 764.09   $ 551.74 
         Contracts securitized                                        185.37     156.70    759.59     594.60 
         Total managed portfolio                                      $ 1,231.42 $ 897.58  $ 1,231.42 $ 897.58 
 

Total contracts purchased/securitized in Q4: +16.7% y/y
The total managed portfolio was up 37% y/y