chances are looking good for that Silver ETF,
another trading vehicle to diversy into to. fwiw
I'm on it
,,,,,$$$$$
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Published: Feb. 15 2006, 08:49 GMT
The Crude Carnage Continues
The Crude Carnage Continued yesterday, however the downward scope now moves into limited territory
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Energies
The Crude Carnage continued yesterday, however the downward scope now moves into limited territory. Today's weekly inventory data should show a neutral stance, with a mixed outlook expected.
However, previous weekly data painted a bullish picture, however traders chose to focus on the IEA projection that global supply will out pace demand growth. We find this projection as being flawed and anticipate further supply side tightening throughout the year.
Moving more in to the near term, we anticipate a low in april Brent crude around the 58.65 to 59.00 level. From that level we expect the Crude market to consolidate, before resuming the upwardly longer term trend.
Today's range is expected to remain inside a 58.65 to 60.20 distribution.
Trade Strategy: Buy April Brent Crude (LCOJ6) at 58.65.
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Metals
All eyes are on the SEC decision allowing Barclay to create a silver ETF. If this is allowed to go through, then this will provide support to the physical silver. Gold could come under some pressure from a strengthening dollar.
According to a metals trader, ".....dollar strength ahead of new Fed Chairman Bernanke’s Wednesday Senate testimony should work to restrain gold near-term. The dollar index is also closing in on resistance near 91.50, a breach of which could press gold.".
All the onus will be laid to Bernanke and dollar strength. We remain bullish on silver against a tight physical supply.
Trade Strategy: Buy March Silver 9.1800
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Treasuries
US January Retail Sales data came in well above the market expectations at +2.3% and ex auto +2.2%. The immediate reaction by the market was a sell off, however the market quickly regained some losses. The outlook for today will depend upon Bernanke's testimony on monetary policy before the Financial Services committee.
However not before we have a further more US data, namely; the February Empire Manufacturing survey (est. 18 vs 20.1), Dec TIC data (est. USD 76.2bl vs USD 89.1bl), Jan Industrial Production (est. +0.2%) and Capacity Utilization (est. 80.8%). Other thing being equal, we are in for a busy trading day.
Ultimately, all the testimony and the economic data will set the tone for today. With the recent data published, we still see the bias in treasuries to the downside, this goes for both Euro and US treasuries.
Trade Strategy: Short March 2006 Bunds (FGBLH6) at 120.16. Stop above 120.44. Target 119.
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Market Data 
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