So, I take it you've now sold ENTA and bought GILD! :)
That kind of knee-jerk reductionist thinking, unfortunately, is all-to-prevalent on this board, IMO. (It IS the normal mode of thinking on the YMB boards.) The fact of the matter is that I haven't sold a single share of ENTA. (And I'll wager I own a lot more than you do.), but that's neither here nor there. The point is that I like to keep my projections/expectations somewhere in this universe.
In the real world of clinical practice, a patient gets to spend just a few minutes with his/her doctor, and that includes specialists. For instance, next week I'm having a cortisone shot in my hip. The procedure takes about 3-4 minutes--I've had it done before--but the orthopedic surgeon's assistant had the receptionist schedule a double appointment for me, as crazy as that may sound. (Maybe there's some kind of financial issue that I'm not aware of here.) The point is that clinicians don't spend a whole of lot time with their patients discussing various research papers about the advantages and disadvantages of dosing regimens, if, in fact, the clinicians even give a hoot. Once-daily dosing is a far bigger advantage for GILD than Dew and you seem to think. That's the point. Yes, ABBV will push hard on the marketing end, but GILD is hardly a slouch in the infectious disease arena.
When we critique PPHM longs here for their irrationality, you and others (including me) are comfortable with that. But when it comes to stocks that we own, some people seem rather blind to their own irrationalities.
Freud was fond of saying that he was always amazed how transparent others are to us and how opaque we are to ourselves.
For me, it would be helpful, if Dew presented his projections with a high-end number and a low-end number. For ABBV/ENTA, I would say the low-end number should be 15-20% range of market penetration.
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