Replies to post #45849 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[justthefacts1]

ARIA can only last for another 3 to 4 quarters before needing much needed cash to continue. I predict that will have to address that sooner than later by means of selling more stock. I believe their main focus, before anyone is going to be interested in buying, is getting the drug up to the first line therapy. There will be some challenges ahead, that's for sure.

[Azy]

its sliding down because of the bs shorts all over... i dont know have u red articles about ARIA lately - its all bout shorting it now :D they want to bring it down as much as they can thats all... the rumors about Eli Lilly are still in play - nobody came out with a statement that the takeover is bogus...its quite...and if u think about it if its quite most likely there is some true in those rumors - the only time will show. Today ARIA fell because of another shorting article and awful market conditions. Honestly nothing to worry about, chartwise its a standard bounce off the 13ema... nothing crazy about it...as puravida said before: ARIA is the ultimate patience test. Enjoy the dips - i know i do cuz i love to load dirt cheap ;]]] GLHF

[jochenVt]

I am not as concerned as you are about the cash situation.
Analysts are in average expecting -156M and -83M in net profit in ´14 and ´15 and breakeven in ´16. With 230M cash left at the end of ´13, it will get you close to the break even point.
Yes, Ariad will not risk running out of cash and probably try to get at least another 200M in its coffers.
But: Before the crash, losses were estimated at nearly twice of what they are now for ´14 and ´15 (1.35$ and 0.85$ per share). So at $8/share you can raise money to cover these losses by issuing the same amount of shares as you would have needed before the crash at $16/share. So I do not think there is a risk of massive dilution (as Rachel is still insinuating).
At this point, capital markets are open again and partnership, buy out or raising cash are all viable options and the terms will be acceptable to the old shareholders.
I personally expect that if capital increase is the chosen option, we will not see such a move before ASCO. And it will probably include an option component to make it more interesting to the new investors.