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porgyrusty

01/26/14 2:33 PM

#1609 RE: Nolerman #1608

To me, this is the most encouraging article when it comes to the PPS. From Motley Fool.... 3 times peak sales puts it at a PPS of $15 with a float of 73 million shares!!!!!!

What's my take? My view is that the market doesn't know what to make of Northera's prospects come Feb. 14, when the drug's final review is due to be handed down from the FDA. The market's confusion is evident by the alarming mismatch between the company's projected peak sales of $375 million per year for Northera, and Chelsea's current market cap of $336 million.

Put simply, companies in similar positions, more often than not, are trading at a minimum of three times projected peak sales, in my experience. So, I take this mismatch to mean that the market still isn't a believer in the drug's approval prospects. While the FDA doesn't have to follow the advice of its Advisory Committee, I believe Chelsea offers an intriguing risk to reward ratio after this surprise vote. So, investors with high risk tolerance may want to keep tabs on this story going forward.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/20/3-biggest-winners-in-biotech-last-week.aspx