chipguy, BTW, how fast an Opteron do you need to hit 860 SD SAP?. Not soon. I think Madison will be faster than Opteron for several months.
I feel we can roughly map the Opteron ramp to the last year T-bred. Today Opteron is cherry-picked and probably is exactly 1 year behind T-bred. Recall, last spring AMD was able to cherry-pick Athlons with 1.6 or 1.7 Ghz. Then they got tiny volume of 2 and 2.1 Ghz in September and first volume 2.2 Ghz in November. I think Opteron will be volume 2.2 Ghz by November - this must match Madison within margin of benchmark selection.
Or if we assume SOI will start working then 2.4 Ghz by November. I don't think 2.2 Ghz will have 860 SD SAP score. 2.4 Ghz definitely will.